Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more