Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with large-scale features through Day 5 (Thursday Mar. 27), during which time overall severe risk should remain generally tempered. A weak surface warm front should lie from northwest-to-southeast across Texas Day 4/Wednesday, with a secondary boundary lying northwest-to-southeast from the northern High Plains to Kansas. However, background ridging over the Rockies/western portions of the Plains should suppress convection to some degree. This, along with modest mid-level flow (generally 20 to 30 kt) expected across the area will limit risk, though a few stronger central/southern High Plains storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening. On Day 5/Thursday, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to undercut the northern-stream ridge, shifting into the southern Plains with time. While overall instability should once again remain limited -- largely due to still-limited moisture return -- a few stronger storms will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. One area of more focused potential for a few storms appears to exist over eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas near the slowly northward-advancing warm front; a few stronger afternoon storms may also occur across portions of western Texas. Day 6/Friday, models begin to diverge more substantially, with this divergence increasing through the end of the period. Models hint that a stronger trough may begin advancing across the West, and into/across the Plains Days (next weekend). This would be associated with stronger surface development, more robust northward moisture transport, and more favorable flow aloft. Thus, while severe risk appears likely to increase, differences in the models with respect to details of this evolution preclude any confident introduction of risk areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with large-scale features through Day 5 (Thursday Mar. 27), during which time overall severe risk should remain generally tempered. A weak surface warm front should lie from northwest-to-southeast across Texas Day 4/Wednesday, with a secondary boundary lying northwest-to-southeast from the northern High Plains to Kansas. However, background ridging over the Rockies/western portions of the Plains should suppress convection to some degree. This, along with modest mid-level flow (generally 20 to 30 kt) expected across the area will limit risk, though a few stronger central/southern High Plains storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening. On Day 5/Thursday, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to undercut the northern-stream ridge, shifting into the southern Plains with time. While overall instability should once again remain limited -- largely due to still-limited moisture return -- a few stronger storms will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. One area of more focused potential for a few storms appears to exist over eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas near the slowly northward-advancing warm front; a few stronger afternoon storms may also occur across portions of western Texas. Day 6/Friday, models begin to diverge more substantially, with this divergence increasing through the end of the period. Models hint that a stronger trough may begin advancing across the West, and into/across the Plains Days (next weekend). This would be associated with stronger surface development, more robust northward moisture transport, and more favorable flow aloft. Thus, while severe risk appears likely to increase, differences in the models with respect to details of this evolution preclude any confident introduction of risk areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with large-scale features through Day 5 (Thursday Mar. 27), during which time overall severe risk should remain generally tempered. A weak surface warm front should lie from northwest-to-southeast across Texas Day 4/Wednesday, with a secondary boundary lying northwest-to-southeast from the northern High Plains to Kansas. However, background ridging over the Rockies/western portions of the Plains should suppress convection to some degree. This, along with modest mid-level flow (generally 20 to 30 kt) expected across the area will limit risk, though a few stronger central/southern High Plains storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening. On Day 5/Thursday, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to undercut the northern-stream ridge, shifting into the southern Plains with time. While overall instability should once again remain limited -- largely due to still-limited moisture return -- a few stronger storms will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. One area of more focused potential for a few storms appears to exist over eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas near the slowly northward-advancing warm front; a few stronger afternoon storms may also occur across portions of western Texas. Day 6/Friday, models begin to diverge more substantially, with this divergence increasing through the end of the period. Models hint that a stronger trough may begin advancing across the West, and into/across the Plains Days (next weekend). This would be associated with stronger surface development, more robust northward moisture transport, and more favorable flow aloft. Thus, while severe risk appears likely to increase, differences in the models with respect to details of this evolution preclude any confident introduction of risk areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with large-scale features through Day 5 (Thursday Mar. 27), during which time overall severe risk should remain generally tempered. A weak surface warm front should lie from northwest-to-southeast across Texas Day 4/Wednesday, with a secondary boundary lying northwest-to-southeast from the northern High Plains to Kansas. However, background ridging over the Rockies/western portions of the Plains should suppress convection to some degree. This, along with modest mid-level flow (generally 20 to 30 kt) expected across the area will limit risk, though a few stronger central/southern High Plains storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening. On Day 5/Thursday, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to undercut the northern-stream ridge, shifting into the southern Plains with time. While overall instability should once again remain limited -- largely due to still-limited moisture return -- a few stronger storms will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. One area of more focused potential for a few storms appears to exist over eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas near the slowly northward-advancing warm front; a few stronger afternoon storms may also occur across portions of western Texas. Day 6/Friday, models begin to diverge more substantially, with this divergence increasing through the end of the period. Models hint that a stronger trough may begin advancing across the West, and into/across the Plains Days (next weekend). This would be associated with stronger surface development, more robust northward moisture transport, and more favorable flow aloft. Thus, while severe risk appears likely to increase, differences in the models with respect to details of this evolution preclude any confident introduction of risk areas at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with large-scale features through Day 5 (Thursday Mar. 27), during which time overall severe risk should remain generally tempered. A weak surface warm front should lie from northwest-to-southeast across Texas Day 4/Wednesday, with a secondary boundary lying northwest-to-southeast from the northern High Plains to Kansas. However, background ridging over the Rockies/western portions of the Plains should suppress convection to some degree. This, along with modest mid-level flow (generally 20 to 30 kt) expected across the area will limit risk, though a few stronger central/southern High Plains storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening. On Day 5/Thursday, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to undercut the northern-stream ridge, shifting into the southern Plains with time. While overall instability should once again remain limited -- largely due to still-limited moisture return -- a few stronger storms will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. One area of more focused potential for a few storms appears to exist over eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas near the slowly northward-advancing warm front; a few stronger afternoon storms may also occur across portions of western Texas. Day 6/Friday, models begin to diverge more substantially, with this divergence increasing through the end of the period. Models hint that a stronger trough may begin advancing across the West, and into/across the Plains Days (next weekend). This would be associated with stronger surface development, more robust northward moisture transport, and more favorable flow aloft. Thus, while severe risk appears likely to increase, differences in the models with respect to details of this evolution preclude any confident introduction of risk areas at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more