Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more