Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with large-scale features through Day 5 (Thursday Mar. 27), during which time overall severe risk should remain generally tempered. A weak surface warm front should lie from northwest-to-southeast across Texas Day 4/Wednesday, with a secondary boundary lying northwest-to-southeast from the northern High Plains to Kansas. However, background ridging over the Rockies/western portions of the Plains should suppress convection to some degree. This, along with modest mid-level flow (generally 20 to 30 kt) expected across the area will limit risk, though a few stronger central/southern High Plains storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening. On Day 5/Thursday, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to undercut the northern-stream ridge, shifting into the southern Plains with time. While overall instability should once again remain limited -- largely due to still-limited moisture return -- a few stronger storms will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. One area of more focused potential for a few storms appears to exist over eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas near the slowly northward-advancing warm front; a few stronger afternoon storms may also occur across portions of western Texas. Day 6/Friday, models begin to diverge more substantially, with this divergence increasing through the end of the period. Models hint that a stronger trough may begin advancing across the West, and into/across the Plains Days (next weekend). This would be associated with stronger surface development, more robust northward moisture transport, and more favorable flow aloft. Thus, while severe risk appears likely to increase, differences in the models with respect to details of this evolution preclude any confident introduction of risk areas at this time. Read more