Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains, and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains, and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... As an eastern U.S. upper trough continues progressing eastward toward/across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, a second trough is progged to advance southeastward out of the northern Intermountain region into/across the northern and central Plains, and the Upper Midwest by Sunday morning. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma into portions of eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Synopsis... As a leading shortwave trough moves eastward across the Mid Atlantic, high pressure behind a cold front will shift into the Great Lakes and OH/TN Valleys, also extending into the Gulf of America. Meanwhile, another wave will be moving into the northern Rockies by 00Z, and will amplify as it moves across the northern Plains and mid MO Valley overnight. As this system emerges into the Plains, low pressure will deepen over SD, and southerly winds will increase from the western Gulf into the southern Plains. Dewpoints into the 50s F will spread as far north as Kansas City by 12Z Sunday. As the upper trough interacts with this moist plume, strong storms will become increasingly likely from late evening into the overnight hours from far northeast OK into the lower MO Valley, with primarily hail potential. ...Northeast OK into the lower MO Valley and vicinity... Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern OK and western AR through 00Z, with stronger elevated instability rapidly spreading across eastern KS and MO during the evening. Indications are that initial activity may develop between 00-03Z over northeast OK near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb will favor cells producing large hail as cells proceed into southern MO. There is also a risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time, with any potential far-southern cell closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast OK into extreme northwest AR. Overnight, as a cold front moves east across KS, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the IA/MO border will support isolated hail as well in the warm advection regime. ...Northern High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the midlevel jet axis and behind the cold front and developing low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal instability in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable time of day could yield a few strong gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/22/2025 Read more