Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat, with potential for large hail, is expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... A mid-level trough will dig southeastward across the northern Rockies on Saturday and into the central Plains Saturday night. Moisture advection will take place during the day ahead of the trough across the southern Plains and Ozarks. By early Saturday evening, an axis of instability with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, is forecast from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. A cold front will advance quickly southeastward through the central Plains Saturday evening, as a 50 to 60 knot jet strengthens ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Saturday evening ahead of the front on the nose of the low-level jet. During the overnight period, convection is forecast to expand eastward from southeast Kansas across the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop further southwestward into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings from 06Z to 12Z on Sunday morning along the instability axis have a low-level temperature inversion below 850 mb. Across parts of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with effective shear from 50 to 65 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 7 C/km. This environment will likely support isolated supercells that are elevated, with potential for large hail. The greatest severe threat is expected to be after midnight, as the low-level jet consolidates over far northeast Oklahoma. The greatest severe threat is expected over southeast Kansas and south-central Missouri, where confidence is the greatest for convection initiation. Further to the southwest across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, convective initiation is more uncertain, suggesting that a severe threat there is more conditional. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat, with potential for large hail, is expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... A mid-level trough will dig southeastward across the northern Rockies on Saturday and into the central Plains Saturday night. Moisture advection will take place during the day ahead of the trough across the southern Plains and Ozarks. By early Saturday evening, an axis of instability with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, is forecast from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. A cold front will advance quickly southeastward through the central Plains Saturday evening, as a 50 to 60 knot jet strengthens ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Saturday evening ahead of the front on the nose of the low-level jet. During the overnight period, convection is forecast to expand eastward from southeast Kansas across the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop further southwestward into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings from 06Z to 12Z on Sunday morning along the instability axis have a low-level temperature inversion below 850 mb. Across parts of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with effective shear from 50 to 65 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 7 C/km. This environment will likely support isolated supercells that are elevated, with potential for large hail. The greatest severe threat is expected to be after midnight, as the low-level jet consolidates over far northeast Oklahoma. The greatest severe threat is expected over southeast Kansas and south-central Missouri, where confidence is the greatest for convection initiation. Further to the southwest across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, convective initiation is more uncertain, suggesting that a severe threat there is more conditional. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat, with potential for large hail, is expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... A mid-level trough will dig southeastward across the northern Rockies on Saturday and into the central Plains Saturday night. Moisture advection will take place during the day ahead of the trough across the southern Plains and Ozarks. By early Saturday evening, an axis of instability with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, is forecast from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. A cold front will advance quickly southeastward through the central Plains Saturday evening, as a 50 to 60 knot jet strengthens ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Saturday evening ahead of the front on the nose of the low-level jet. During the overnight period, convection is forecast to expand eastward from southeast Kansas across the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop further southwestward into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings from 06Z to 12Z on Sunday morning along the instability axis have a low-level temperature inversion below 850 mb. Across parts of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with effective shear from 50 to 65 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 7 C/km. This environment will likely support isolated supercells that are elevated, with potential for large hail. The greatest severe threat is expected to be after midnight, as the low-level jet consolidates over far northeast Oklahoma. The greatest severe threat is expected over southeast Kansas and south-central Missouri, where confidence is the greatest for convection initiation. Further to the southwest across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, convective initiation is more uncertain, suggesting that a severe threat there is more conditional. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more