Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z An IsoDryT area was introduced for the Cascades from northern Oregon through Washington. The preceding hot/dry conditions helped cure the fuels quickly after last week's rainfall leading to above normal to daily record setting ERC values for portions of the IsoDryT area. PWAT values less than 0.9" and continued high-cloud bases with dry sub-cloud layers also help support this decision. A mix of wet/dry storms are likely given the slow storm motions and slightly elevated PWAT values, and there is some uncertainty regarding storm development and coverage in the Washington Cascades. Central Idaho into southwest Montana and northwest Wyoming was also considered as there will likely be isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms tomorrow. However, deeper monsoonal moisture with widespread wetting rain is expected across these areas in the following days that would help limit the ignition/spread potential. Additionally, portions of northwest California may see a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms even amid PWAT values of 1"+ and slow storm motions. ..Nauslar.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest/southern Rockies to the Northwest, several midlevel disturbances will advance northward across parts of the Great Basin/Sierra into the Northwest. Given well-established monsoonal moisture across the region, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are possible (especially over parts of the Sierra into the Northwest), generally 1.0+ inch PW and slow storm motions should favor mostly wet storms capable of producing measurable rainfall. Nevertheless, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will still be possible on the peripheries of rain cores where fuels are receptive. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2008 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of western/central New York and central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241704Z - 241900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce locally damaging gusts and hail through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms and deepening cumulus are noted along a cold front extending across western NY/PA early this afternoon. Where stronger heating has cleared amid scattered/broken cloudiness, temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to low 80s F amid 60s F dewpoints. While midlevel lapse rates remain weak, this is sufficient for weak destabilization across the area in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Increasing southwesterly flow with height is supporting modest vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes generally around 30 kt per regional VWP data. This should be sufficient for organized cells. As heating allows for steepened low-level lapse rates, isolated strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible through the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates are generally weak, cool 500 mb temperatures (-10 to -12 C) and favorable vertical shear profiles (exhibiting elongated/straight hodographs) may also support isolated marginally severe hail to near 1 inch diameter. Convection may be more sparse/later developing with southward extent into central PA as the cold front develops east more slowly compared to further north, limiting forcing for ascent. Given the overall marginal thermodynamic environment, a watch is not currently expected and the severe risk should remain relatively limited/sporadic. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 08/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 43257719 44647508 44557426 43887440 43047511 39697812 39867881 40037907 41857840 42557813 42867780 43257719 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over a small part of south-central Arizona Monday afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will be situated over eastern Canada and across much of the central and eastern states on Monday, with a relative ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will result in mostly stable conditions from the northern and central Plains toward the Gulf Coast and Mid Atlantic, but residual instability may remain over New England and across south TX and FL. Southerly winds over the southern Plains may also interact with a southward-moving cold front, with general thunderstorms from OK into parts of northwest TX. ...Southern AZ... With the upper high centered over NM, southeasterly midlevel winds will exist over AZ, on the order of 20-25 kt. Meanwhile, light westerly winds will exist within the deepening boundary layer as heating occurs. Low to mid level moisture will already be in place, and 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE appear likely by late afternoon. Storms are expected to form over eastern Santa Cruz County (and perhaps isolated development into eastern Pima County), with steering currents and propagation yielding west/northwest motions. With time, aggregate outflow may produce strong to perhaps severe gusts on the local level as activity moves into the diurnally primed air mass, with gusty winds possible through early evening. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over a small part of south-central Arizona Monday afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will be situated over eastern Canada and across much of the central and eastern states on Monday, with a relative ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will result in mostly stable conditions from the northern and central Plains toward the Gulf Coast and Mid Atlantic, but residual instability may remain over New England and across south TX and FL. Southerly winds over the southern Plains may also interact with a southward-moving cold front, with general thunderstorms from OK into parts of northwest TX. ...Southern AZ... With the upper high centered over NM, southeasterly midlevel winds will exist over AZ, on the order of 20-25 kt. Meanwhile, light westerly winds will exist within the deepening boundary layer as heating occurs. Low to mid level moisture will already be in place, and 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE appear likely by late afternoon. Storms are expected to form over eastern Santa Cruz County (and perhaps isolated development into eastern Pima County), with steering currents and propagation yielding west/northwest motions. With time, aggregate outflow may produce strong to perhaps severe gusts on the local level as activity moves into the diurnally primed air mass, with gusty winds possible through early evening. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over a small part of south-central Arizona Monday afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will be situated over eastern Canada and across much of the central and eastern states on Monday, with a relative ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will result in mostly stable conditions from the northern and central Plains toward the Gulf Coast and Mid Atlantic, but residual instability may remain over New England and across south TX and FL. Southerly winds over the southern Plains may also interact with a southward-moving cold front, with general thunderstorms from OK into parts of northwest TX. ...Southern AZ... With the upper high centered over NM, southeasterly midlevel winds will exist over AZ, on the order of 20-25 kt. Meanwhile, light westerly winds will exist within the deepening boundary layer as heating occurs. Low to mid level moisture will already be in place, and 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE appear likely by late afternoon. Storms are expected to form over eastern Santa Cruz County (and perhaps isolated development into eastern Pima County), with steering currents and propagation yielding west/northwest motions. With time, aggregate outflow may produce strong to perhaps severe gusts on the local level as activity moves into the diurnally primed air mass, with gusty winds possible through early evening. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over a small part of south-central Arizona Monday afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will be situated over eastern Canada and across much of the central and eastern states on Monday, with a relative ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will result in mostly stable conditions from the northern and central Plains toward the Gulf Coast and Mid Atlantic, but residual instability may remain over New England and across south TX and FL. Southerly winds over the southern Plains may also interact with a southward-moving cold front, with general thunderstorms from OK into parts of northwest TX. ...Southern AZ... With the upper high centered over NM, southeasterly midlevel winds will exist over AZ, on the order of 20-25 kt. Meanwhile, light westerly winds will exist within the deepening boundary layer as heating occurs. Low to mid level moisture will already be in place, and 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE appear likely by late afternoon. Storms are expected to form over eastern Santa Cruz County (and perhaps isolated development into eastern Pima County), with steering currents and propagation yielding west/northwest motions. With time, aggregate outflow may produce strong to perhaps severe gusts on the local level as activity moves into the diurnally primed air mass, with gusty winds possible through early evening. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over a small part of south-central Arizona Monday afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will be situated over eastern Canada and across much of the central and eastern states on Monday, with a relative ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will result in mostly stable conditions from the northern and central Plains toward the Gulf Coast and Mid Atlantic, but residual instability may remain over New England and across south TX and FL. Southerly winds over the southern Plains may also interact with a southward-moving cold front, with general thunderstorms from OK into parts of northwest TX. ...Southern AZ... With the upper high centered over NM, southeasterly midlevel winds will exist over AZ, on the order of 20-25 kt. Meanwhile, light westerly winds will exist within the deepening boundary layer as heating occurs. Low to mid level moisture will already be in place, and 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE appear likely by late afternoon. Storms are expected to form over eastern Santa Cruz County (and perhaps isolated development into eastern Pima County), with steering currents and propagation yielding west/northwest motions. With time, aggregate outflow may produce strong to perhaps severe gusts on the local level as activity moves into the diurnally primed air mass, with gusty winds possible through early evening. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more