Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the continental U.S. for Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to be maintained over much of the eastern half of the nation on Wednesday, as a shortwave ridge stays in place over the southern and central Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain centered on the mid Mississippi Valley. Along the western periphery of this post-frontal airmass, low-level moisture return is forecast over the southern plains on Wednesday. An axis of instability appears likely to develop by late afternoon along the northern edge of the returning low-level moisture from western Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. As an 850 mb jet strengthens during the evening, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near this instability axis eastward across parts of central and eastern Kansas. It appears this convection will remain non-severe, and may be primarily elevated in nature. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Well-established monsoonal moisture will remain in place across the Northwest on Tuesday. Boundary-layer mixing beneath the rich midlevel moisture will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms along the Cascades, where fuels are dry. Inverted-V profiles and 0.80-0.90 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms capable of producing gusty/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of northern CA and the northern Rockies, though uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness in these areas precludes highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered on the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture atop a warm/dry boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the Northwest -- with a focus over the higher terrain. Over the Cascades, PW values of 0.70-0.90 inches will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Thunderstorm potential is more uncertain over the WA Cascades owing to limited monsoonal moisture compared to areas farther south. Nevertheless, any storms that do form will be dry and pose a risk of new starts. A continuation of wet/dry thunderstorms are also expected across northern CA, though recent rainfall and 1+ inch PW cast uncertainty on overall ignition potential. For central ID into southwest MT, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may pose a short-term risk of lightning-induced ignitions; however, increasing rainfall in the coming days should limit the overall risk. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting the severe potential will be limited. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting the severe potential will be limited. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting the severe potential will be limited. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting the severe potential will be limited. ..Broyles.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening. ...Southern Arizona... Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening. ..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025 Read more

MD 2013 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603... FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603... Valid 250218Z - 250315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603 continues. SUMMARY...A localized risk of severe hail and wind continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603 in the eastern Texas Panhandle. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KAMA shows ongoing convection moving southward across the eastern TX Panhandle, including one discrete supercell moving across Gray/Donley Counties. This storm is approaching the southern edge of a weakly unstable air mass, where around 30 kt of effective shear will continue to promote a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts in the near term. However, given limited residence time in the surface-based buoyancy and a gradual increase in nocturnal PBL static stability, the severe risk should gradually decrease over the next couple hours, and a downstream watch is not currently expected. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34630041 34800111 35200116 35400082 35490039 35349993 35009982 34769997 34630041 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more