Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...20z Update... An upgrade to Slight was made with this update in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Thermodynamics and shear profiles are favorable for supercell development. Recent development on radar suggests attempts are ongoing across portions of eastern Colorado near the Palmer Divide and near Colorado Springs. Any more discrete supercells that can be maintained will pose a risk for large hail, and as such a 15% was added with this update. See MCD#2009 for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ ...Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK. Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade. ...New York/Pennsylvania... An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 24 20:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... High pressure will stabilize much of the central and eastern CONUS on Tuesday as a large-scale upper trough persists from the MS Valley to the East Coast. At the surface, a cold front will be located from northern FL across the northern Gulf and into south-central TX early in the day, and will continue to push south, along with the higher dewpoints and instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over FL and parts of southern TX, but severe storms are unlikely given weak shear and poor lapse rates aloft. Otherwise, scattered daytime storms are likely over much of the Intermountain West, where midlevel moisture will remain plentiful, and only a weak upper ridge over the Rockies remaining. ..Jewell.. 08/24/2025 Read more