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3 weeks ago
WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO
25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK.
..WEINMAN..08/25/25
ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER
ELLIS GREER HARMON
JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS
TEXAS WASHITA
TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY
HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more
3 weeks ago
WW 603 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 250020Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Oklahoma
Eastern Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Sunday evening from 720 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely continue to
pose a risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) and large to very large
hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) through the mid evening hours.
Additional storm development is possible over the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles this evening. These potential additional storms may
yield a risk for large hail and severe gusts as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast
of Guymon OK to 25 miles west of Altus OK. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
34025.
...Smith
Read more
3 weeks ago
WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD
TO 25 NW LIC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
..WEINMAN..08/25/25
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN
OTERO PROWERS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
3 weeks ago
WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD
TO 25 NW LIC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
..WEINMAN..08/25/25
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN
OTERO PROWERS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
3 weeks ago
WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD
TO 25 NW LIC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
..WEINMAN..08/25/25
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN
OTERO PROWERS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
3 weeks ago
WW 602 SEVERE TSTM CO 242055Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Colorado
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should continue to pose a threat for
mainly large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter as they move slowly
south-southeastward across parts of eastern Colorado this afternoon
and evening. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Pueblo CO to 35 miles south southeast of Burlington CO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
35020.
...Gleason
Read more
3 weeks ago
MD 2012 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602... FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602...
Valid 250007Z - 250130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues
across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 in southeast and
east-central Colorado.
DISCUSSION...A couple semi-discrete storms are evolving slowly
southward along outflow boundaries in east-central and southeastern
CO. Warm/moist inflow for these storms (lower 60s dewpoints) and
around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor transient
supercell structures for the next couple hours -- prior to the onset
of nocturnal static stability. The stronger/longer-lived storms will
continue to pose a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts.
..Weinman.. 08/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37630238 37690315 38290419 38930444 39300417 39320387
38460221 37940195 37630238
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
3 weeks ago
MD 2011 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle and far western OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242346Z - 250115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
for the next couple hours. A watch is not currently expected, though
trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...A couple of discrete storms have recently intensified
along a north/south-oriented surface boundary extending across the
far eastern TX Panhandle, while a separate storm cluster has been
evolving along an antecedent outflow boundary in northwest OK. Ahead
of these storms, a warm/moist PBL (lower 60s dewpoints) and modest
midlevel lapse rates are yielding weak surface-based buoyancy.
However, around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor
supercell structure, with a risk of isolated large to very large
hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk should persist for
another couple hours, prior to increasing nocturnal static
stability. Given the potentially limited spatiotemporal nature of
the threat, it is unclear if a watch is needed, though trends are
being monitored.
..Weinman/Smith.. 08/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34739996 34810055 35040084 35390102 35970101 36440052
36520027 36429967 36129890 35569873 35169881 34839925
34739996
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across
the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into
western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and
New York.
...Discussion...
Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a
few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are
expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat
should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability
remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition
should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012
for additional discussion of this threat area.
A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this
evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is
present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing
inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD
2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this
area.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2025
Read more
3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across
the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into
western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and
New York.
...Discussion...
Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a
few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are
expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat
should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability
remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition
should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012
for additional discussion of this threat area.
A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this
evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is
present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing
inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD
2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this
area.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2025
Read more
3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across
the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into
western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and
New York.
...Discussion...
Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a
few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are
expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat
should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability
remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition
should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012
for additional discussion of this threat area.
A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this
evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is
present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing
inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD
2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this
area.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2025
Read more
3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across
the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into
western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and
New York.
...Discussion...
Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a
few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are
expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat
should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability
remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition
should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012
for additional discussion of this threat area.
A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this
evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is
present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing
inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD
2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this
area.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2025
Read more
3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across
the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into
western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and
New York.
...Discussion...
Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a
few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are
expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat
should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability
remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition
should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012
for additional discussion of this threat area.
A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this
evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is
present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing
inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD
2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this
area.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2025
Read more
3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across
the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into
western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and
New York.
...Discussion...
Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a
few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are
expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat
should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability
remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition
should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012
for additional discussion of this threat area.
A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this
evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is
present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing
inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD
2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this
area.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2025
Read more
3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across
the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into
western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and
New York.
...Discussion...
Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a
few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are
expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat
should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability
remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition
should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012
for additional discussion of this threat area.
A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this
evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is
present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing
inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD
2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this
area.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2025
Read more
3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across
the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into
western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and
New York.
...Discussion...
Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a
few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are
expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat
should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability
remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition
should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012
for additional discussion of this threat area.
A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this
evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is
present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing
inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD
2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this
area.
..Bentley.. 08/25/2025
Read more
3 weeks ago
WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PUB TO
20 SE COS TO 30 WNW LIC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
..WEINMAN..08/25/25
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC011-017-025-041-061-063-073-089-099-101-250140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS
PUEBLO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
3 weeks ago
WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0603 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
3 weeks ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 24 23:00:15 UTC 2025.
3 weeks ago
MD 2010 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025
Areas affected...Portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into
northwest Oklahoma and far southwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242057Z - 242300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles into far northwest Oklahoma and far southwest Kansas
appears possible this afternoon. If initiation occurs, severe
hail/wind will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery and surface observations show slow
vertical development of cumulus along an outflow boundary draped
from northwest OK into southwest KS/eastern CO. Temperatures warming
into the low 90s and low/mid 80s on the warm and cool side of the
boundary (respectively) suggest that MLCIN continues to erode across
this region. Given that forcing for ascent is weak and largely tied
to the outflow boundary, it remains uncertain whether or not
sustained convective initiation will occur through peak heating.
However, the recent satellite and surface observation trends suggest
that this is a possibility. If sustained convection can develop, it
will mature within an environment characterized by around 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs featuring around 30-40 knots of
effective bulk shear per recent forecast soundings. Convective
coverage would likely be sufficiently isolated to promote
supercells, which may be capable of severe gusts and large hail
(possibly up to 2-2.5 inches). Enhanced near-surface vorticity along
the boundary and southeasterly flow/augmented low-level SRH to the
immediate east of the boundary may support some tornado threat.
While watch issuance is not expected due to uncertainty regarding
initiation, convective trends will be monitored.
..Moore/Gleason.. 08/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37360138 37340108 37180076 36990037 36759992 36629953
36359938 36049950 35789972 35730004 35870044 36260117
36400138 36640159 36870169 37200167 37360138
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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