SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603 Status Reports

3 weeks ago
WW 0603 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO 25 NNW CSM TO 35 NW CHK. ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 603 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-009-039-045-055-057-065-075-129-139-149-250240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER BECKHAM CUSTER ELLIS GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA TXC087-129-179-195-211-233-295-357-393-421-483-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY HANSFORD HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS SHERMAN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 603

3 weeks ago
WW 603 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 250020Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Eastern Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday evening from 720 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) and large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) through the mid evening hours. Additional storm development is possible over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this evening. These potential additional storms may yield a risk for large hail and severe gusts as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 25 miles west of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 34025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 Status Reports

3 weeks ago
WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 Status Reports

3 weeks ago
WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 Status Reports

3 weeks ago
WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE TAD TO 25 NW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-061-063-073-089-099-250240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602

3 weeks ago
WW 602 SEVERE TSTM CO 242055Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter as they move slowly south-southeastward across parts of eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Pueblo CO to 35 miles south southeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35020. ...Gleason Read more

SPC MD 2012

3 weeks ago
MD 2012 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602... FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602... Valid 250007Z - 250130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 in southeast and east-central Colorado. DISCUSSION...A couple semi-discrete storms are evolving slowly southward along outflow boundaries in east-central and southeastern CO. Warm/moist inflow for these storms (lower 60s dewpoints) and around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor transient supercell structures for the next couple hours -- prior to the onset of nocturnal static stability. The stronger/longer-lived storms will continue to pose a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37630238 37690315 38290419 38930444 39300417 39320387 38460221 37940195 37630238 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 2011

3 weeks ago
MD 2011 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2011 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle and far western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242346Z - 250115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible for the next couple hours. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A couple of discrete storms have recently intensified along a north/south-oriented surface boundary extending across the far eastern TX Panhandle, while a separate storm cluster has been evolving along an antecedent outflow boundary in northwest OK. Ahead of these storms, a warm/moist PBL (lower 60s dewpoints) and modest midlevel lapse rates are yielding weak surface-based buoyancy. However, around 40 kt of effective shear should continue to favor supercell structure, with a risk of isolated large to very large hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk should persist for another couple hours, prior to increasing nocturnal static stability. Given the potentially limited spatiotemporal nature of the threat, it is unclear if a watch is needed, though trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Smith.. 08/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34739996 34810055 35040084 35390102 35970101 36440052 36520027 36429967 36129890 35569873 35169881 34839925 34739996 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...Discussion... Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012 for additional discussion of this threat area. A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD 2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this area. ..Bentley.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...Discussion... Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012 for additional discussion of this threat area. A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD 2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this area. ..Bentley.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...Discussion... Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012 for additional discussion of this threat area. A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD 2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this area. ..Bentley.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...Discussion... Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012 for additional discussion of this threat area. A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD 2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this area. ..Bentley.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...Discussion... Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012 for additional discussion of this threat area. A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD 2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this area. ..Bentley.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...Discussion... Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012 for additional discussion of this threat area. A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD 2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this area. ..Bentley.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...Discussion... Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012 for additional discussion of this threat area. A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD 2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this area. ..Bentley.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Aug 25, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected to continue evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible for a few more hours across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. ...Discussion... Several thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Colorado where a few hail and wind reports have been received. These storms are expected to congeal into larger clusters. However, the severe threat should only last for a few more hours while moderate instability remains. However, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition should limit the overall threat by later this evening. See MCD 2012 for additional discussion of this threat area. A few severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma this evening where 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and moderate shear is present. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Increasing inhibition should reduce the threat by later this evening. See MCD 2011 for additional discussion of the near-term threat across this area. ..Bentley.. 08/25/2025 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 Status Reports

3 weeks ago
WW 0602 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PUB TO 20 SE COS TO 30 WNW LIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011 ..WEINMAN..08/25/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-041-061-063-073-089-099-101-250140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 2010

3 weeks ago
MD 2010 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2010 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma and far southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242057Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into far northwest Oklahoma and far southwest Kansas appears possible this afternoon. If initiation occurs, severe hail/wind will be possible. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery and surface observations show slow vertical development of cumulus along an outflow boundary draped from northwest OK into southwest KS/eastern CO. Temperatures warming into the low 90s and low/mid 80s on the warm and cool side of the boundary (respectively) suggest that MLCIN continues to erode across this region. Given that forcing for ascent is weak and largely tied to the outflow boundary, it remains uncertain whether or not sustained convective initiation will occur through peak heating. However, the recent satellite and surface observation trends suggest that this is a possibility. If sustained convection can develop, it will mature within an environment characterized by around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs featuring around 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear per recent forecast soundings. Convective coverage would likely be sufficiently isolated to promote supercells, which may be capable of severe gusts and large hail (possibly up to 2-2.5 inches). Enhanced near-surface vorticity along the boundary and southeasterly flow/augmented low-level SRH to the immediate east of the boundary may support some tornado threat. While watch issuance is not expected due to uncertainty regarding initiation, convective trends will be monitored. ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37360138 37340108 37180076 36990037 36759992 36629953 36359938 36049950 35789972 35730004 35870044 36260117 36400138 36640159 36870169 37200167 37360138 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more
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