Severe Storms

MD 2006 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Wyoming into central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231921Z - 232115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms, including a supercell or two, may pose a large hail threat across northern and central Colorado through early evening. This threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery and lightning data show a gradual uptick in deep convection across much of the central Rockies as temperatures slowly warm into the 70s and low 80s along the Front Range and within the higher elevation. Although lingering cloud cover continues to modulate daytime heating to some degree, latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest that even this modest heating is sufficient to support MLCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg - especially across north-central CO where a pocket of somewhat richer moisture is noted in surface observations (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints). Additionally, recent VWP observations from KCYS sampled northwesterly mid-level winds at about 40 knots. Given weak east/southeasterly low-level flow within a diffuse frontal zone, this should yield deep-layer bulk shear values of around 40-45 knots with somewhat elongated/straight hodographs. A recent split of a shallow convective cell north of the CO/WY border confirms a favorable kinematic environment is in place for splitting cells. Convective intensity will likely increase through late afternoon as daytime heating continues, and the favorable wind profile will likely promote splitting supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. That said, limited forcing for ascent away from the terrain and less favorable thermodynamic conditions with southeastward extent should limit the overall coverage of intense convection. ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...GJT... LAT...LON 38960597 40770657 41100661 41360638 41450603 41410572 40280385 39880383 39510395 39280416 39030453 38880498 38800547 38960597 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will progress eastward into Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS on Monday. West of this trough, and upper ridge will remain from the Four Corners states into western TX. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will result in relatively stable/dry conditions over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The leading cold front and bulk of associated thunderstorm activity will stretch from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. Western portions of the front will extend into central TX, where southerly winds will maintain a moist and marginally unstable air mass. Early day activity may exist over KS into OK where southerly 850 mb flow may yield elevated instability atop the surface front. Additional storm development is possible south of any such activity into northwest TX, but poor lapse rates and shear aloft will limit severe potential. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely over much of the Intermountain West as areas of midlevel moisture persist. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will progress eastward into Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS on Monday. West of this trough, and upper ridge will remain from the Four Corners states into western TX. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will result in relatively stable/dry conditions over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The leading cold front and bulk of associated thunderstorm activity will stretch from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. Western portions of the front will extend into central TX, where southerly winds will maintain a moist and marginally unstable air mass. Early day activity may exist over KS into OK where southerly 850 mb flow may yield elevated instability atop the surface front. Additional storm development is possible south of any such activity into northwest TX, but poor lapse rates and shear aloft will limit severe potential. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely over much of the Intermountain West as areas of midlevel moisture persist. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will progress eastward into Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS on Monday. West of this trough, and upper ridge will remain from the Four Corners states into western TX. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will result in relatively stable/dry conditions over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The leading cold front and bulk of associated thunderstorm activity will stretch from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. Western portions of the front will extend into central TX, where southerly winds will maintain a moist and marginally unstable air mass. Early day activity may exist over KS into OK where southerly 850 mb flow may yield elevated instability atop the surface front. Additional storm development is possible south of any such activity into northwest TX, but poor lapse rates and shear aloft will limit severe potential. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely over much of the Intermountain West as areas of midlevel moisture persist. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will progress eastward into Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS on Monday. West of this trough, and upper ridge will remain from the Four Corners states into western TX. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will result in relatively stable/dry conditions over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The leading cold front and bulk of associated thunderstorm activity will stretch from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. Western portions of the front will extend into central TX, where southerly winds will maintain a moist and marginally unstable air mass. Early day activity may exist over KS into OK where southerly 850 mb flow may yield elevated instability atop the surface front. Additional storm development is possible south of any such activity into northwest TX, but poor lapse rates and shear aloft will limit severe potential. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely over much of the Intermountain West as areas of midlevel moisture persist. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will progress eastward into Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS on Monday. West of this trough, and upper ridge will remain from the Four Corners states into western TX. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will result in relatively stable/dry conditions over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The leading cold front and bulk of associated thunderstorm activity will stretch from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. Western portions of the front will extend into central TX, where southerly winds will maintain a moist and marginally unstable air mass. Early day activity may exist over KS into OK where southerly 850 mb flow may yield elevated instability atop the surface front. Additional storm development is possible south of any such activity into northwest TX, but poor lapse rates and shear aloft will limit severe potential. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely over much of the Intermountain West as areas of midlevel moisture persist. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will progress eastward into Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS on Monday. West of this trough, and upper ridge will remain from the Four Corners states into western TX. At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will result in relatively stable/dry conditions over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The leading cold front and bulk of associated thunderstorm activity will stretch from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. Western portions of the front will extend into central TX, where southerly winds will maintain a moist and marginally unstable air mass. Early day activity may exist over KS into OK where southerly 850 mb flow may yield elevated instability atop the surface front. Additional storm development is possible south of any such activity into northwest TX, but poor lapse rates and shear aloft will limit severe potential. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely over much of the Intermountain West as areas of midlevel moisture persist. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted to cover initial storms progressing over a deep, dry boundary layer, and receptive fuels. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Great Basin into northern CA and OR. This will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening -- likely aided by a convectively augmented/generated midlevel vorticity maximum/MCV emerging from the northern Sierra. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected, and given receptive fuels across the region, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier precipitation cores that evolve. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted to cover initial storms progressing over a deep, dry boundary layer, and receptive fuels. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Great Basin into northern CA and OR. This will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening -- likely aided by a convectively augmented/generated midlevel vorticity maximum/MCV emerging from the northern Sierra. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected, and given receptive fuels across the region, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier precipitation cores that evolve. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted to cover initial storms progressing over a deep, dry boundary layer, and receptive fuels. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Great Basin into northern CA and OR. This will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening -- likely aided by a convectively augmented/generated midlevel vorticity maximum/MCV emerging from the northern Sierra. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected, and given receptive fuels across the region, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier precipitation cores that evolve. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted to cover initial storms progressing over a deep, dry boundary layer, and receptive fuels. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Great Basin into northern CA and OR. This will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening -- likely aided by a convectively augmented/generated midlevel vorticity maximum/MCV emerging from the northern Sierra. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected, and given receptive fuels across the region, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier precipitation cores that evolve. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted to cover initial storms progressing over a deep, dry boundary layer, and receptive fuels. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Great Basin into northern CA and OR. This will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening -- likely aided by a convectively augmented/generated midlevel vorticity maximum/MCV emerging from the northern Sierra. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected, and given receptive fuels across the region, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier precipitation cores that evolve. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted to cover initial storms progressing over a deep, dry boundary layer, and receptive fuels. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Great Basin into northern CA and OR. This will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening -- likely aided by a convectively augmented/generated midlevel vorticity maximum/MCV emerging from the northern Sierra. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected, and given receptive fuels across the region, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier precipitation cores that evolve. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted to cover initial storms progressing over a deep, dry boundary layer, and receptive fuels. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with no other changes made. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest, monsoonal moisture will continue spreading northward from the Great Basin into northern CA and OR. This will contribute to sufficient buoyancy for diurnally driven thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening -- likely aided by a convectively augmented/generated midlevel vorticity maximum/MCV emerging from the northern Sierra. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected, and given receptive fuels across the region, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any heavier precipitation cores that evolve. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more