Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into northern Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest, with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day. ...Eastern CO into western KS... A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs. Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during the day. Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS, but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least a low-end severe risk. Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor. ...Parts of central NY into PA... A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into northern Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest, with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day. ...Eastern CO into western KS... A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs. Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during the day. Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS, but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least a low-end severe risk. Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor. ...Parts of central NY into PA... A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into northern Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest, with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day. ...Eastern CO into western KS... A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs. Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during the day. Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS, but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least a low-end severe risk. Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor. ...Parts of central NY into PA... A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into northern Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest, with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day. ...Eastern CO into western KS... A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs. Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during the day. Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS, but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least a low-end severe risk. Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor. ...Parts of central NY into PA... A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into northern Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest, with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day. ...Eastern CO into western KS... A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs. Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during the day. Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS, but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least a low-end severe risk. Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor. ...Parts of central NY into PA... A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into northern Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest, with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day. ...Eastern CO into western KS... A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs. Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during the day. Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS, but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least a low-end severe risk. Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor. ...Parts of central NY into PA... A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into northern Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest, with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day. ...Eastern CO into western KS... A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs. Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during the day. Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS, but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least a low-end severe risk. Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor. ...Parts of central NY into PA... A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible near the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Front Range/Central High Plains... A mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the Southwest and Four Corners regions will move little today, with ridging extending northward across much of the Great Basin and Northwest. Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow will exist today across the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A moist post-frontal airmass will remain in place across these areas, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Low cloud cover remains prevalent across the central High Plains late this morning, which should continue to hinder destabilization to some extent. Even so, gradual thunderstorm development should eventually occur over the higher terrain by late afternoon as persistent low-level upslope flow aids parcels in reaching their LFCs. This activity should spread generally south-southeastward through the evening along/near the I-25 corridor, while posing an isolated threat for mainly hail due to a combination of modestly steepened lapse rates aloft, sufficient deep-layer shear, and weak to moderate MLCAPE. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Isolated thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this afternoon as it advances eastward across part of the Great Lakes/Midwest. Warm low/mid-level temperatures in the presence of generally low/mid 60s surface dewpoints should limit buoyancy and updraft strength, likely keeping the overall severe potential low. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The primary change to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook update was to remove isolated dry thunderstorm highlights from southern California. Here, ongoing thunderstorms are showing training tendencies, with 75-80 F surface dewpoints and near 2 inch precipitable water values in place. As such, appreciable rainfall accumulations, as well as fine fuel responses to the rich low-level moisture, may temper fire ignitions from lightning strikes. However, given a mix of receptive fuels in place, a lightning-induced ignition still cannot be ruled out. Similarly, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were constricted to central/north-central Nevada into extreme southeast Oregon. Here, precipitable water values should remain low enough to promote a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms atop highly receptive fuels, and where there is a lesser expectation for training storms. ..Squitieri.. 08/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel high will remain in place over the Four Corners vicinity, while deepening monsoonal moisture continues spreading northward across the Great Basin into the Northwest. Along the western periphery of the midlevel high, an unseasonably hot/unstable air mass will persist across much of CA into the Great Basin, where another day of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected. While the gradually deepening monsoonal moisture will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, a dry/deeply mixed sub-cloud layer will tend to limit precipitation accumulations over many areas. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible over dry fuels, along with gusty/erratic outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more