SPC Mar 12, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border vicinity early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across eastern KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. An expansive warm sector is expected to be in place east of this cold front, from the Mid MS Valley into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley early Thursday morning, supported by the previous days' return flow. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing in the vicinity of a warm front extending north-northeastward from the surface low, but much of the warm sector is currently expected to be free from any early period storms. This broad warm sector is expected to destabilize throughout the day with two primary corridors of severe thunderstorms potential, one near the surface low from southern IA/northern MO into west-central IL and another farther south from eastern OK and east TX into LA and AR. ...Southern IA/Northern MO/West-Central IL... Upper 50s dewpoints are expected south of the warm front throughout the period. Despite this somewhat modest low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy is still anticipated early in the afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the low 70s, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front will likely result in convective initiation amid vertical wind profiles that support supercells. There may be a tendency for storms to move north of the warm front over time, but enough residence in the warm sector is anticipated for some storms to reach maturity. Any mature supercells would be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, strong gusts, and very large hail. ...Eastern OK and East TX into LA and AR... Weak surface troughing will likely interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, with convective initiation anticipated around 18Z across southeast OK and northeast TX. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. How the convection evolves after the initial more discrete storms remains uncertain, with some potential for development into more linear structures given the front-parallel deep-layer vertical shear. If upscale growth is realized, the resulting convective line would then push eastward into AR and LA, with some potential for damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border vicinity early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across eastern KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. An expansive warm sector is expected to be in place east of this cold front, from the Mid MS Valley into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley early Thursday morning, supported by the previous days' return flow. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing in the vicinity of a warm front extending north-northeastward from the surface low, but much of the warm sector is currently expected to be free from any early period storms. This broad warm sector is expected to destabilize throughout the day with two primary corridors of severe thunderstorms potential, one near the surface low from southern IA/northern MO into west-central IL and another farther south from eastern OK and east TX into LA and AR. ...Southern IA/Northern MO/West-Central IL... Upper 50s dewpoints are expected south of the warm front throughout the period. Despite this somewhat modest low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy is still anticipated early in the afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the low 70s, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front will likely result in convective initiation amid vertical wind profiles that support supercells. There may be a tendency for storms to move north of the warm front over time, but enough residence in the warm sector is anticipated for some storms to reach maturity. Any mature supercells would be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, strong gusts, and very large hail. ...Eastern OK and East TX into LA and AR... Weak surface troughing will likely interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, with convective initiation anticipated around 18Z across southeast OK and northeast TX. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. How the convection evolves after the initial more discrete storms remains uncertain, with some potential for development into more linear structures given the front-parallel deep-layer vertical shear. If upscale growth is realized, the resulting convective line would then push eastward into AR and LA, with some potential for damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across a large area from the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to be over the NE/IA/MO border vicinity early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across eastern KS and central OK into the TX Hill Country. An expansive warm sector is expected to be in place east of this cold front, from the Mid MS Valley into the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley early Thursday morning, supported by the previous days' return flow. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing in the vicinity of a warm front extending north-northeastward from the surface low, but much of the warm sector is currently expected to be free from any early period storms. This broad warm sector is expected to destabilize throughout the day with two primary corridors of severe thunderstorms potential, one near the surface low from southern IA/northern MO into west-central IL and another farther south from eastern OK and east TX into LA and AR. ...Southern IA/Northern MO/West-Central IL... Upper 50s dewpoints are expected south of the warm front throughout the period. Despite this somewhat modest low-level moisture, moderate to strong buoyancy is still anticipated early in the afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the low 70s, supported by cold mid-level temperatures and resulting steep mid-level lapse rates. Low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front will likely result in convective initiation amid vertical wind profiles that support supercells. There may be a tendency for storms to move north of the warm front over time, but enough residence in the warm sector is anticipated for some storms to reach maturity. Any mature supercells would be capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, strong gusts, and very large hail. ...Eastern OK and East TX into LA and AR... Weak surface troughing will likely interact with an increasingly unstable airmass across the region during the afternoon, with convective initiation anticipated around 18Z across southeast OK and northeast TX. Given robust buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, initial development will likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail. How the convection evolves after the initial more discrete storms remains uncertain, with some potential for development into more linear structures given the front-parallel deep-layer vertical shear. If upscale growth is realized, the resulting convective line would then push eastward into AR and LA, with some potential for damaging gusts. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will round the western US longwave trough on Wednesday before overspreading the Rocky Mountains and the central Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central high Plains, with a surface dryline extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected behind the surface dryline, where strong westerly flow is expected to overlap low afternoon relative humidity. Across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into western Oklahoma, relative-humidity reductions to 10-20 percent will overlap surface winds around 20-25 mph (locally as high as 30 mph). Latest fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region remain critically dry, which will support inclusion of a Critical risk. Recent fire activity also supports the notion that fuels within this area remain critically dry. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC Mar 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 weeks 3 days ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more
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