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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is evident on water vapor imagery over the western states, with west-northwesterly flow in place over much of the north-central U.S. Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough appears to be moving through the northern High Plains. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of this feature along a zone of large-scale ascent across western South Dakota. This line will continue to move east-southeastward toward an axis of moderate instability that is oriented from northern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The RAP also shows a maximum in low-level flow of 30 to 35 knots located near the instability axis, which is contributing to moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Aberdeen, South Dakota WSR-88D VWP, which has gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels, and nearly 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. A similar wind profile is evident on the North Platte, Nebraska WSR-88D VWP. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central South Dakota early this evening have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a continued severe threat for a few more hours, as the line moves east-southeastward. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2025 Read more

MD 1940 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1940 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Areas affected...Southern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 132221Z - 140015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds, and possibly hail, is increasing across southern South Dakota. DISCUSSION...Latest lightning data shows a steady uptick in intensity of a developing MCS across western SD with multiple severe wind gusts between 55-70 mph noted across far northeast WY and far western SD. This system is beginning to impinge on richer boundary-layer moisture in place across SD, which improves further with eastward extent. Additionally, latest upper-air analyses show a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates extending eastward downstream of the MCS, which will also help maintain intensity. Recent velocity data from KUDX shows 60-70 mph winds within the lowest kilometer, which will likely manifest at the surface given steep lapse rates within this layer. With further intensification possible, gusts upwards of 80 mph appear possible. Further east, surface pressure falls and increasing low-level convergence is noted in surface observations near Pierre, SD with a few attempts at deep convection noted in GOES imagery and lightning data. This area of ascent may be the initiation zone for discrete cells over the next couple of hours, which may intensify as they move east into a plume of higher theta-e air where MLCAPE is around 2000 J/kg. RAP mesoanalyses also suggest low-level SRH and effective shear is adequate for supercells that may pose a threat for large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Confidence in this scenario is limited, but environmental conditions suggest a supercell or two is plausible in the coming hours. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42890239 42940268 43010287 43140313 43240332 43460365 43730388 44090389 44580394 44820383 45030362 45110338 44519930 44289891 43949859 43379837 43159844 42909867 42839893 42819940 42890239 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW BFF TO 10 ESE 2WX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940 ..MOORE..08/13/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-015-017-031-045-089-103-149-161-140140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE BOYD BROWN CHERRY DAWES HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SHERIDAN SDC007-015-023-053-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103-117-121- 123-137-140140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BRULE CHARLES MIX GREGORY HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON STANLEY TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW BFF TO 10 ESE 2WX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940 ..MOORE..08/13/25 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-015-017-031-045-089-103-149-161-140140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE BOYD BROWN CHERRY DAWES HOLT KEYA PAHA ROCK SHERIDAN SDC007-015-023-053-055-065-071-075-085-093-095-102-103-117-121- 123-137-140140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BRULE CHARLES MIX GREGORY HAAKON HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON STANLEY TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH Read more

WW 588 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 132045Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Nebraska Western and Central South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cluster moving out of northeast WY is expected to continue southeastward over the next several hours. This cluster has already produced several gusts around 60 mph. The risk for strong to severe gusts should continue over the next several hours as the cluster moves southeastward into the more moist and unstable airmass downstream across western/central South Dakota and northern Nebraska. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west of Rapid City SD to 55 miles north northeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1941 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1941 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota and adjacent portions of North Dakota and Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132351Z - 140145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota (and eventually far southeast North Dakota and far western Minnesota) will pose an isolated hail risk this evening. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually maturing across northeast SD over the past couple of hours with one weakly organized supercell noted near KABR. This activity has been fairly isolated over the past hour and has periodically intensified to severe limits. More recently, new convection has developed northward near the ND border as warm air advection in the lowest 3 km increases (per the KABR VWP). VWP observations have also sampled strong 0-6 km bulk shear, which should support organized storms given adequate buoyancy on the eastern fringe of the richer low-level moisture plume. The combination of continued ascent and strong shear will maintain some potential for strong to severe convection through the evening hours as the nocturnal low-level jet continues to intensify, though a marginal thermodynamic environment and unfavorable storm motions along the initiation zone (may hinder discrete storm modes) may modulate overall storm intensity. The primary hazard will most likely be large hail, but a few strong/severe wind gusts are also possible. Given the isolated nature of the threat, watch issuance is not expected. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45109856 45789882 46079867 46349837 46439804 46359771 45399637 45109617 44909615 44549645 44509671 44529704 45109856 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1940 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1940 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Areas affected...Southern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 132221Z - 140015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds, and possibly hail, is increasing across southern South Dakota. DISCUSSION...Latest lightning data shows a steady uptick in intensity of a developing MCS across western SD with multiple severe wind gusts between 55-70 mph noted across far northeast WY and far western SD. This system is beginning to impinge on richer boundary-layer moisture in place across SD, which improves further with eastward extent. Additionally, latest upper-air analyses show a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates extending eastward downstream of the MCS, which will also help maintain intensity. Recent velocity data from KUDX shows 60-70 mph winds within the lowest kilometer, which will likely manifest at the surface given steep lapse rates within this layer. With further intensification possible, gusts upwards of 80 mph appear possible. Further east, surface pressure falls and increasing low-level convergence is noted in surface observations near Pierre, SD with a few attempts at deep convection noted in GOES imagery and lightning data. This area of ascent may be the initiation zone for discrete cells over the next couple of hours, which may intensify as they move east into a plume of higher theta-e air where MLCAPE is around 2000 J/kg. RAP mesoanalyses also suggest low-level SRH and effective shear is adequate for supercells that may pose a threat for large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Confidence in this scenario is limited, but environmental conditions suggest a supercell or two is plausible in the coming hours. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42890239 42940268 43010287 43140313 43240332 43460365 43730388 44090389 44580394 44820383 45030362 45110338 44519930 44289891 43949859 43379837 43159844 42909867 42839893 42819940 42890239 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132305
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 13 21:56:07 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more