Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills eastward to Wisconsin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of thunderstorms through the period. Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI, where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts. Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable, deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact corridor for isolated severe at this time. Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later updates. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills eastward to Wisconsin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of thunderstorms through the period. Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI, where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts. Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable, deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact corridor for isolated severe at this time. Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later updates. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills eastward to Wisconsin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of thunderstorms through the period. Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI, where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts. Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable, deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact corridor for isolated severe at this time. Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later updates. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills eastward to Wisconsin. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of thunderstorms through the period. Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI, where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts. Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable, deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact corridor for isolated severe at this time. Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later updates. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY. Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless, receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a lightning-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24 hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater thunderstorm coverage. ...Hot/Dry/Windy... Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions. ..Moore.. 08/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis...... An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday, with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY. ...Eastern SD into MN and western WI... Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area. ...Black Hills and Vicinity... Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging. ..Jewell.. 08/14/2025 Read more