Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Upper-level troughing will weaken across the Pacific Northwest before a secondary jet streak deepens the trough again D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Moisture will increase into the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms with mostly wetting rainfall expected. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region through D5/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. On the periphery of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, isolated dry thunderstorms will continue on the fringe of the deeper moisture surge across portions of central/northern Nevada into southern Idaho, western Wyoming. Storm motions will be around 10-15 kts, with PWs around 0.50-0.75" yielding little in terms of meaningful rainfall. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. Moisture will recede southward after the weekend, with potential for less precipitation with thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim and in northern/central Arizona. This may warrant inclusion of probabilities when status of fuels after precipitation D2-D4 (Thursday-Saturday) is known. ...Dry/Windy... Weak troughing over the west amid deeply mixed profiles will lead to overlap of dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies on D3/Friday. Though winds are mainly Elevated, several days of isolated dry thunderstorm activity, low humidity, and recent fire activity encourage inclusion a 40 percent region for D3. ..Thornton.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1939 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1939 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Wyoming into western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132011Z - 132145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the northern Plains. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, with an organized wind threat likely if storms merge into an MCS. DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster has developed across northern WY, and is gradually intensifying (based on increasing lightning trends) as a mid-level vort max traverses the northern Rockies. As such, the ongoing convection should persist as it progresses into SD over the next few hours. With the approach of the vort max, deep-layer shear should continue to strengthen, with widespread 40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. At the same time, MLCINH will continue to erode as surface temperatures climb into the 90s F amid upper 50s F dewpoints in western SD, boosting MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg. The combination of this buoyancy and mainly elongated hodographs will encourage continued multicellular development and perhaps preceding supercells, accompanied by both a severe wind and hail threat. With time though, upscale growth into an MCS is possible, particularly in western SD. This MCS will then approach a more moist low-level airmass while traversing a surface boundary, with surface dewpoints well into the 60s F, which will encourage further strengthening and associated potential for some wind swath organization. As such, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed, with timing of watch issuance remaining the primary question. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43370479 43720523 44130546 44500554 44760552 44900540 44900353 44640094 44339997 43859975 43469988 43190048 43090141 43090226 43080304 43210406 43370479 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper-ridge will strengthen on Friday with building heights across the northern Plains. A diffuse surface low will be present somewhere in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a dryline extending to the south and a front extending northeast. This front across eastern South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota will likely be the primary focus for organized severe storm potential on Friday. Upper-level forcing should be weak with rising heights across the region, but low-level convergence along the front may be sufficient for storm development. Steep mid-level lapse rates with moderate to strong shear and strong instability supports a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts from central South Dakota to portions of northern Minnesota. Away from the front, warm temperatures aloft and weak large scale forcing should limit storm development Friday afternoon/early evening. However, some modest enhancement of the low-level jet is forecast by late Friday evening which could result in some elevated storm development. If these storms form, moderate to strong shear and strong instability would support at least isolated severe storm risk. The CAPE/shear space on Friday supports a conditional threat for strong supercells, but storm coverage remains questionable due to an ambient environment featuring rising heights aloft and weak large-scale forcing. Therefore, a broad Marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but storm intensity would likely support higher probabilities in later outlooks if a concentrated zone of higher storm coverage appears likely. ..Bentley.. 08/13/2025 Read more