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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...IA/WI/IL... A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today. Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this scenario. ...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...IA/WI/IL... A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today. Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this scenario. ...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...IA/WI/IL... A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today. Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this scenario. ...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...IA/WI/IL... A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today. Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this scenario. ...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...IA/WI/IL... A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today. Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this scenario. ...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern Plains through tonight. ...IA/WI/IL... A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today. Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this scenario. ...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS... Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before weakening. ...MO/AR... Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025 Read more

After 16 days of 90-degree temperatures in the greater Grand Rapids area, a lawn and landscaping business in Holland has reported that business was slow due to the weather. In Holland, precipitation this summer has amounted to 2.98 inches, which is less than one-third of normal. Some lawns have not needed weekly mowing and can be mowed every other week. FOX 17 (Grand Rapids, Mich.), Aug 17, 2025

428
ABPZ20 KNHC 181116
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. An axis of moderate instability will likely develop by afternoon ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Scattered storms could develop during the afternoon near the instability axis, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Friday, the front is forecast to move southeastward toward the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys, as an axis of instability develops during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the instability axis, but the severe potential is expected to remain localized, mostly due to minimal convective coverage. On Saturday, the front is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region, extending west-southwestward into the central U.S. Isolated storms with a potential for localized severe will again be possible in the afternoon ahead of the front. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, cell coverage is expected to be very isolated. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, an upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon in the central Appalachians, and along parts of the middle to upper Atlantic Seaboard on Monday afternoon. Instability ahead of the front is expected to remain weak in most areas during this period, suggesting any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. An axis of moderate instability will likely develop by afternoon ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Scattered storms could develop during the afternoon near the instability axis, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Friday, the front is forecast to move southeastward toward the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys, as an axis of instability develops during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the instability axis, but the severe potential is expected to remain localized, mostly due to minimal convective coverage. On Saturday, the front is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region, extending west-southwestward into the central U.S. Isolated storms with a potential for localized severe will again be possible in the afternoon ahead of the front. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, cell coverage is expected to be very isolated. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, an upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon in the central Appalachians, and along parts of the middle to upper Atlantic Seaboard on Monday afternoon. Instability ahead of the front is expected to remain weak in most areas during this period, suggesting any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. An axis of moderate instability will likely develop by afternoon ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Scattered storms could develop during the afternoon near the instability axis, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Friday, the front is forecast to move southeastward toward the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys, as an axis of instability develops during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the instability axis, but the severe potential is expected to remain localized, mostly due to minimal convective coverage. On Saturday, the front is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region, extending west-southwestward into the central U.S. Isolated storms with a potential for localized severe will again be possible in the afternoon ahead of the front. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, cell coverage is expected to be very isolated. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, an upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon in the central Appalachians, and along parts of the middle to upper Atlantic Seaboard on Monday afternoon. Instability ahead of the front is expected to remain weak in most areas during this period, suggesting any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. An axis of moderate instability will likely develop by afternoon ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Scattered storms could develop during the afternoon near the instability axis, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Friday, the front is forecast to move southeastward toward the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys, as an axis of instability develops during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the instability axis, but the severe potential is expected to remain localized, mostly due to minimal convective coverage. On Saturday, the front is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region, extending west-southwestward into the central U.S. Isolated storms with a potential for localized severe will again be possible in the afternoon ahead of the front. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, cell coverage is expected to be very isolated. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, an upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon in the central Appalachians, and along parts of the middle to upper Atlantic Seaboard on Monday afternoon. Instability ahead of the front is expected to remain weak in most areas during this period, suggesting any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. An axis of moderate instability will likely develop by afternoon ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Scattered storms could develop during the afternoon near the instability axis, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Friday, the front is forecast to move southeastward toward the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys, as an axis of instability develops during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the instability axis, but the severe potential is expected to remain localized, mostly due to minimal convective coverage. On Saturday, the front is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region, extending west-southwestward into the central U.S. Isolated storms with a potential for localized severe will again be possible in the afternoon ahead of the front. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, cell coverage is expected to be very isolated. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, an upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon in the central Appalachians, and along parts of the middle to upper Atlantic Seaboard on Monday afternoon. Instability ahead of the front is expected to remain weak in most areas during this period, suggesting any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. An axis of moderate instability will likely develop by afternoon ahead of the front across the eastern Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. Scattered storms could develop during the afternoon near the instability axis, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Friday, the front is forecast to move southeastward toward the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys, as an axis of instability develops during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the instability axis, but the severe potential is expected to remain localized, mostly due to minimal convective coverage. On Saturday, the front is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region, extending west-southwestward into the central U.S. Isolated storms with a potential for localized severe will again be possible in the afternoon ahead of the front. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, cell coverage is expected to be very isolated. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Sunday into Monday, an upper-level trough and an associated cold front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front Sunday afternoon in the central Appalachians, and along parts of the middle to upper Atlantic Seaboard on Monday afternoon. Instability ahead of the front is expected to remain weak in most areas during this period, suggesting any severe threat will remain localized. Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BUB TO 30 NW OFK TO 40 N SUX. WW 598 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180900Z. ..DEAN..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC043-180900- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAKOTA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 598 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 180340Z - 180900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1040 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A linear thunderstorm cluster will likely move east across the Watch tonight. The main threats with the stronger storms will be a risk for scattered severe gusts and perhaps an isolated threat for large hail with the more intense cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Mitchell SD to 45 miles east southeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1982 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598... FOR SOUTHEAST SD...EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...SOUTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Areas affected...Southeast SD...eastern NE...western IA...southwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 598... Valid 180650Z - 180815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 598 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and hail are possible overnight. DISCUSSION...An outflow-dominant storm cluster is moving across southeast SD and northeast NE early this morning. While instability is favorable, with MUCAPE near/above 2000 J/kg, midlevel flow and deep-layer shear (as observed from area VWPs) are generally weak, which may continue to limit organization of this cluster through the overnight hours. The strongest outflow is currently moving eastward across southeast SD, and this area may have the greatest relative threat for damaging wind as it moves toward far southwest MN/northwest IA. The strongest embedded updrafts may also be capable of producing isolated hail. Farther south, convection is trailing the gust front across northeast NE, with other elevated convection noted in advance of the storm cluster into east-central/southeast NE. The weak deep-layer shear should generally limit storm organization in this area as well, though at least a brief uptick could occur as the larger-scale outflow encounters the preceding convection. A localized threat for damaging wind and perhaps some marginal hail could accompany these storms as they eventually move from eastern NE into parts of western IA. ..Dean.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42219823 43119717 43929772 44369785 44519649 44389514 42839483 41219545 40809601 40689712 40789775 41379812 41629851 41839885 42219823 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BUB TO 30 SW FSD TO 30 WNW FSD TO 15 ESE HON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982 ..DEAN..08/18/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-027-043-051-089-107-139-180840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE CEDAR DAKOTA DIXON HOLT KNOX PIERCE SDC027-079-083-099-101-125-127-135-180840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LAKE LINCOLN MINNEHAHA MOODY TURNER UNION YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2025 Read more