Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN SD AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and isolated severe gusts remain possible tonight across parts of the northern Great Plains and Black Hills. ...Northern Great Plains... Despite limited severe hail reports thus far, a few supercells along the south-central ND/north-central border area had impressively large MRMS MESH signatures. These supercells have remained anchored along a southwest/northeast-oriented surface trough amid weak low-level winds but around 40-kt effective bulk shear. This nearly straight-line hodograph structure conducive for splitting supercells, coincident with MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg per the 00Z BIS sounding, should support large hail potential over the next couple hours. An arc of convective outflow spreading north to east across northeast WY to far southwest SD will eventually impinge on the MLCAPE gradient that runs southwest to northeast across western SD. Cells along the outflow should intensify as they spread northeast of the Black Hills and north of the Badlands later this evening. 15Z and later CAMs indicate potential for a few sporadic supercells, which would yield a large hail threat. Severe gusts are also possible, but these may remain localized and transient given the modest motion of the outflow and supercell wind profile. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Earlier severe wind/hail storms across southeast AZ should diminish over the next hour or two as they attempt to spread into southwest NM where prior overturning has occurred. A cooler downstream boundary layer and weaker tropospheric lapse rates will further marginalize storm intensity after dusk. ..Grams.. 09/13/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122347
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located just offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter, as the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around
10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 23:37:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2025 21:22:11 GMT

Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122331 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 600 PM CST Fri Sep 12 2025 ...MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 103.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Mario. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.8 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several hours. A slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Mario should move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through tonight, and then begin to move farther away from the coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Mario is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mario will lead to additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, for especially Jalisco through Saturday morning. This brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Mario, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Michoacan for the next few hours. Gusty winds are possible elsewhere along coastal portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...MARIO STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Fri Sep 12 the center of Mario was located near 17.8, -103.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 12 23:31:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2068 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota and southwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122301Z - 130130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage this evening, with strong wind gusts in addition to sporadic large hail. Trends are being monitored for watch potential. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered cells, some with hail, persist this evening over parts of MT, WY, and the Dakotas, where peak heating has led to an uncapped air mass and moderate instability. Thus far, clusters of cells have been slow moving. However, a gradual uptick in coverage has been noted recently over northeast WY, western SD and now into south-central ND. Also of note is an apparent outflow surge associated with a larger area of convection over east-central WY. Indications are that new cell development may keep developing along the leading edge of the outflow/baroclinic zone as it pushes northeastward across northeast WY, southeast MT, and the western Dakota through the evening. Such a propagating storm regime could result in an increased wind risk, specially as the activity interacts with an increasingly moist/unstable air mass to the northeast. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44160672 45880482 46250406 46920201 46920104 46770055 46520033 46200042 45740103 44020176 43480215 43140289 43010407 43170493 43670641 44160672 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Hollis fruit farm workers drove around checking the irrigation equipment for leaks and checking valves. Due to the drought, irrigation continued almost around the clock. By September 4, some of the farm’s irrigation ponds had become too low to use. With a limited water supply, irrigation water was taken off of some crops in favor of directing the water to the apple trees to make sure that the apples got enough. New Hampshire Bulletin (Concord, N.H.), Sep 8, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 12 22:23:01 UTC 2025.

The grass in Kennebec County has not grown in weeks due to the absence of rain. A dairy farmer can typically grow enough to feed the cattle and dairy cows, and there is usually extra hay to store for winter or sell to other farms, but this year, he has had to buy hay. The first week of September he bought two tractor loads of hay from New York for $15,000. He may have to purchase more. Grass in Somerset County was so short that a farmer put out hay for his livestock in case there was not enough fresh grass. The grass was just a couple of inches high when it ought to be about knee high. Maine Public (Bangor, Maine), Sep 12, 2025

MD 2067 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MONTANA INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...central Montana into northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121932Z - 122200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected to continue across the high terrain and adjacent areas in central Montana, northeastern Wyoming, and far western South Dakota. An isolated wind and hail risk will be possible before more widespread severe storms develop this evening. DISCUSSION...A couple of areas of thunderstorm development are noted near the Big Horns in Wyoming, central Montana mountains, and near the Black Hills in South Dakota. The more prominent upper-level forcing for ascent remains across portions of AZ/CO, which will likely keep the risk somewhat initially isolated and tied to the terrain. Given the weakening MLCIN and heating/destabilization amid deep layer shear around 30-40 kts, these thunderstorms will be capable of a few instances of strong to severe wind and marginally severe hail. As the upper-level wave approaches this evening, further cooling aloft and forcing for ascent should promote more broader scale air mass destabilization, increasing shear, and increase in thunderstorm activity moving off the terrain posing an increased risk for large hail and damaging wind. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 46121051 47181056 48970846 48870574 43810321 43050395 43180562 46121051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 2066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN UTAH AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Utah and adjacent portions of western Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121924Z - 122200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing an isolated threat of hail and damaging winds will continue through the afternoon across the area. DISCUSSION...A narrow axis of clearing and destabilization has developed across the area. As a result, storms have reinvigorated across eastern Utah ahead of a midlevel impulse swinging north-northeastward across the southern Great Basin. While instability is limited (~500 J/kg MLCAPE), strong deep-layer shear (over 50 knots per 18Z GJT sounding) and forcing for ascent are aiding in storm organization. Furthermore, long, straight hodographs will favor storm splitting. Consequently, large hail and damaging winds may be possible from the strongest storms this afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be too isolated to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 37221013 38931024 40110983 40370934 40370892 40290870 40020842 39040842 38270837 37240876 37080928 37221013 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Pacific Northwest... A mid-level trough and attendant cold front entering Washington/Oregon Coast on Day 3/Sunday will usher in a cooler, moist air mass as well as wetting rains to portions of the Pacific Northwest. A quick eastward translation of the trough commences Sunday night into Day 4/Monday with an amplifying mid-level ridge building over the region through Monday night. Surface high pressure settling into the Northern Rockies and development of thermal trough along the coast will promote a dry, offshore flow across the Cascades, including poor to moderate overnight RH recoveries, early in the Day 5/Tuesday period. Expected rainfall across the Cascades on Day 3/Sunday as well as lack of very dry fuels could mitigate overall impact of this offshore wind event. ...California and Southwest... The cold front associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will bring dry, north/northeast flow to the Sacramento Valley Sunday night into Day 4/Monday but lack of drier fuels should lessen fire weather impact of wind event. Residual moisture from tropical storm Mario could bring showers and thunderstorms, including high-based thunderstorms on the periphery of deeper subtropical moisture, into portions of southern California and the Southwest late next week (Day 7-8/Thursday-Friday). However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of the moisture plume and subdued fuel receptiveness precludes introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ...Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley... Hot and dry conditions under a mid-level ridge will persist across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley through much of next week. Primary impact will be continued drying of fuels, where ERC values in some areas reach into 80-90th percentile. However, generally light winds attributed to weak pressure gradients will keep fire weather concerns somewhat benign through the middle of next week. ..Williams.. 09/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more