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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Wednesday or Wednesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of mid-level high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday, as an associated ridge moves eastward across the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. In spite of this, convective development will be isolated over much of this airmass during the day on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is expected near a front from the southern Plains east-northeastward into the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. Within this corridor, deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that conditions will not be favorable for severe storms. Further to the east, Hurricane Erin is expected to remain in the far western Atlantic, and convective potential is expected to be minimal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. Wednesday or Wednesday night. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A amplifying mid-level ridge over the Four Corners region and north-central U.S. will support a large area of hot and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West Tuesday. While flow aloft will not be overly strong as the ridge continues to build, occasional 15 mph surface gusts and terrain-augmented winds are possible during the afternoon over parts of the eastern Great Basin. In combination with the very hot and dry conditions, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours Tuesday afternoon within exceptionally dry fuels. ...Northern Rockies... To the northwest, a mid-level trough and remnant monsoon moisture should continue to promote isolated thunderstorm potential across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. While lightning is possible, the very isolated storms are expected over areas with less receptive fuels. This should largely limit, but not entirely negate ignition potential Tuesday. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As upper-level ridging builds rapidly over the West, modest south-southwest deep layer flow and efficient daytime mixing of a deep/dry boundary layer will support sustained south-southwest winds of 10-12 mph across southern/northern NV this afternoon. Winds combined with relative humidity nearing 10 percent will support short duration and localized elevated fire weather conditions across southern, central and northeastern NV where very dry fuels exist. ...Northern Rockies/Central Idaho Mountains... A mid-level trough will persist over the Northwest on the periphery of the building upper ridge. Residual Pacific/monsoon moisture and daytime heating will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern ID and higher terrain of western MT. Although northeast thunderstorm motions of 25-30 knots will limit rainfall, fuels remain mostly non-receptive to new lightning ignitions across the Northern Rockies, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As upper-level ridging builds rapidly over the West, modest south-southwest deep layer flow and efficient daytime mixing of a deep/dry boundary layer will support sustained south-southwest winds of 10-12 mph across southern/northern NV this afternoon. Winds combined with relative humidity nearing 10 percent will support short duration and localized elevated fire weather conditions across southern, central and northeastern NV where very dry fuels exist. ...Northern Rockies/Central Idaho Mountains... A mid-level trough will persist over the Northwest on the periphery of the building upper ridge. Residual Pacific/monsoon moisture and daytime heating will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern ID and higher terrain of western MT. Although northeast thunderstorm motions of 25-30 knots will limit rainfall, fuels remain mostly non-receptive to new lightning ignitions across the Northern Rockies, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As upper-level ridging builds rapidly over the West, modest south-southwest deep layer flow and efficient daytime mixing of a deep/dry boundary layer will support sustained south-southwest winds of 10-12 mph across southern/northern NV this afternoon. Winds combined with relative humidity nearing 10 percent will support short duration and localized elevated fire weather conditions across southern, central and northeastern NV where very dry fuels exist. ...Northern Rockies/Central Idaho Mountains... A mid-level trough will persist over the Northwest on the periphery of the building upper ridge. Residual Pacific/monsoon moisture and daytime heating will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern ID and higher terrain of western MT. Although northeast thunderstorm motions of 25-30 knots will limit rainfall, fuels remain mostly non-receptive to new lightning ignitions across the Northern Rockies, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As upper-level ridging builds rapidly over the West, modest south-southwest deep layer flow and efficient daytime mixing of a deep/dry boundary layer will support sustained south-southwest winds of 10-12 mph across southern/northern NV this afternoon. Winds combined with relative humidity nearing 10 percent will support short duration and localized elevated fire weather conditions across southern, central and northeastern NV where very dry fuels exist. ...Northern Rockies/Central Idaho Mountains... A mid-level trough will persist over the Northwest on the periphery of the building upper ridge. Residual Pacific/monsoon moisture and daytime heating will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern ID and higher terrain of western MT. Although northeast thunderstorm motions of 25-30 knots will limit rainfall, fuels remain mostly non-receptive to new lightning ignitions across the Northern Rockies, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As upper-level ridging builds rapidly over the West, modest south-southwest deep layer flow and efficient daytime mixing of a deep/dry boundary layer will support sustained south-southwest winds of 10-12 mph across southern/northern NV this afternoon. Winds combined with relative humidity nearing 10 percent will support short duration and localized elevated fire weather conditions across southern, central and northeastern NV where very dry fuels exist. ...Northern Rockies/Central Idaho Mountains... A mid-level trough will persist over the Northwest on the periphery of the building upper ridge. Residual Pacific/monsoon moisture and daytime heating will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern ID and higher terrain of western MT. Although northeast thunderstorm motions of 25-30 knots will limit rainfall, fuels remain mostly non-receptive to new lightning ignitions across the Northern Rockies, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As upper-level ridging builds rapidly over the West, modest south-southwest deep layer flow and efficient daytime mixing of a deep/dry boundary layer will support sustained south-southwest winds of 10-12 mph across southern/northern NV this afternoon. Winds combined with relative humidity nearing 10 percent will support short duration and localized elevated fire weather conditions across southern, central and northeastern NV where very dry fuels exist. ...Northern Rockies/Central Idaho Mountains... A mid-level trough will persist over the Northwest on the periphery of the building upper ridge. Residual Pacific/monsoon moisture and daytime heating will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern ID and higher terrain of western MT. Although northeast thunderstorm motions of 25-30 knots will limit rainfall, fuels remain mostly non-receptive to new lightning ignitions across the Northern Rockies, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more