Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MONTANA...FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are expected from eastern Oregon into western and southern Montana during the afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms, some severe, is also expected over eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Other isolated activity is likely from the Black Hills into the central High Plains with marginal hail and wind. ...Synopsis... An upper low will move northeastward across OR, with cooling aloft spreading over ID and western MT. At the surface, low pressure will exist over northern NV into southern ID, with a cold front from northwest NV into eastern OR late in the day. Increasing southerly winds along with heating will result in scattered storms, some with large hail and locally damaging winds, mainly from eastern OR into western MT. To the east, an upper ridge will exist over the High Plains, with weak lee troughing and backed surface winds aiding westward moisture transport and destabilization. Scattered daytime storms are again likely from southern MT into eastern CO, and isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out from afternoon through early evening. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift across the Northeast, with moderate northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic. A surface trough will develop over the Carolinas, with a stalled front over NC providing a focus for clusters of strong to severe storms. ...OR into southwest MT... The overall setup for severe storms appears more robust than on the previous day, with lift over a large area and impressive lapse rate profiles and deep-layer shear. Scattered storm coverage is likely by mid afternoon as capping will be removed by 18Z, with storms becoming numerous over central ID and into western MT by late afternoon. Hail will strongly be favored with long hodographs, and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Other isolated cells are expected to form over eastern OR, and over Owyhee county ID which will then move across the valley with a threat of hail in excess of 1.00" (with isolated reports to ping-pong or golf ball size). A few storms may affect extreme eastern WA as well. The threat of hail may persist into the evening as the upper trough continues across the region providing lift. ...Eastern North Carolina... The combination of a stalled front, a sea breeze, and strong inland heating of a very moist air mass will lead to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath west/northwest winds aloft which will lengthen hodographs. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to form around 18-19Z, with splitting cells possible. Hail will be possible despite warm midlevel temperatures, along with a few damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast MT into northern WY... East to northeast surface winds will maintain a band of upper 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints over southern MT and northern WY, with storms expected to form over the higher terrain by 21Z. Southwesterly mid to upper-level winds will result in long hodographs favoring cells capable of hail, and perhaps a few severe wind gusts with any small bows. ...Eastern CO into western KS and southern NE... Strong instability will develop with heating beneath the upper ridge from eastern CO into western KS/NE, with easterly surface winds counteracting mixing of dewpoints. Storms will form over the Front Range by around 21Z, and may produce a few damaging wind gusts as they travel across CO and into western KS. Other storms are possible along a modifying outflow boundary, possibly near I-80, with localized severe wind or hail late in the day. ..Jewell/Cook.. 08/10/2019 Read more