Aggregator

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100501
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 100500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a small low pressure
system is located about 100 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.
This disturbance remains disorganized and the thunderstorm activity
is limited at this time. However, environmental conditions could
still favor some gradual development during the next couple of days
while the system moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles south-
southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation
early next week while the system moves westward or west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ONL TO 20 SW YKN TO 30 S YKN TO 10 E OFK. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-015-089-103-107-139-149-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD HOLT KEYA PAHA KNOX PIERCE ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 566 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 100030Z - 100600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 730 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms over southern South Dakota will track southeastward across the watch area this evening. Damaging winds and hail are possible in the more organized cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east southeast of Oneill NE to 35 miles west northwest of Yankton SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 564...WW 565... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW MHE TO 20 NW YKN TO 20 S YKN TO 10 E OFK. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-015-089-103-107-139-149-100340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD HOLT KEYA PAHA KNOX PIERCE ROCK SDC009-100340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BON HOMME THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RDM TO 10 NW RDM TO 35 NNW RDM. ..SPC..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC013-031-069-100240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK JEFFERSON WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RDM TO 10 NW RDM TO 35 NNW RDM. ..SPC..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC013-031-069-100240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK JEFFERSON WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RDM TO 10 NW RDM TO 35 NNW RDM. ..SPC..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC013-031-069-100240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK JEFFERSON WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 565 SEVERE TSTM OR 092135Z - 100500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and Central Oregon * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM PDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. A few of the storms are expected to become severe, with a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Klamath Falls OR to 30 miles north northwest of Redmond OR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 564... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-015-027-043-051-089-103-107-139-149-173-179-100240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOYD CEDAR DAKOTA DIXON HOLT KEYA PAHA KNOX PIERCE ROCK THURSTON WAYNE SDC009-027-067-127-135-100240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BON HOMME CLAY HUTCHINSON UNION YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W VTN TO 40 NW VTN TO 40 SW 9V9 TO 40 SW MHE TO 25 SSE MHE TO 25 SW FSD. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-023-053-121-123-100240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CHARLES MIX GREGORY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W VTN TO 40 NW VTN TO 40 SW 9V9 TO 40 SW MHE TO 25 SSE MHE TO 25 SW FSD. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-023-053-121-123-100240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CHARLES MIX GREGORY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W VTN TO 40 NW VTN TO 40 SW 9V9 TO 40 SW MHE TO 25 SSE MHE TO 25 SW FSD. ..COOK..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-023-053-121-123-100240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CHARLES MIX GREGORY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 564 TORNADO SD 091910Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells developing across west-central South Dakota should spread east-southeast across much of the central portion of the state before developing into a cluster towards eastern South Dakota. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Pierre SD to 10 miles north northeast of Mitchell SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND OVER NORTHERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible across parts of southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska with damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail are also possible across northern Oregon this evening. ...Northern Plains... A cluster of storms/MCS with embedded midlevel rotation is propagating east/southeast across the SD/NE border, likely producing damaging winds and hail. Northwest winds aloft along with a southwesterly low-level jet increasing to 40 kt will continue to support this complex as it moves wholly into NE. Veering winds with height may support a brief tornado for the more cellular parts of the complex, but the tendency for merged outflows will maximize damaging wind potential. ...Northern Oregon... Scattered storms persist across much of central and eastern Oregon and into southwest Idaho and northern Nevada, beneath cold temperatures aloft as the upper low moves ashore. Pockets of steep low-level lapse rates ahead of any storms will foster strong outflow winds, possibly damaging. Moisture content is maximized over northern Oregon, and this may favor marginal hail at times as storms move into that area. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND OVER NORTHERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible across parts of southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska with damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail are also possible across northern Oregon this evening. ...Northern Plains... A cluster of storms/MCS with embedded midlevel rotation is propagating east/southeast across the SD/NE border, likely producing damaging winds and hail. Northwest winds aloft along with a southwesterly low-level jet increasing to 40 kt will continue to support this complex as it moves wholly into NE. Veering winds with height may support a brief tornado for the more cellular parts of the complex, but the tendency for merged outflows will maximize damaging wind potential. ...Northern Oregon... Scattered storms persist across much of central and eastern Oregon and into southwest Idaho and northern Nevada, beneath cold temperatures aloft as the upper low moves ashore. Pockets of steep low-level lapse rates ahead of any storms will foster strong outflow winds, possibly damaging. Moisture content is maximized over northern Oregon, and this may favor marginal hail at times as storms move into that area. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND OVER NORTHERN OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible across parts of southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska with damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. Isolated severe wind gusts or marginal hail are also possible across northern Oregon this evening. ...Northern Plains... A cluster of storms/MCS with embedded midlevel rotation is propagating east/southeast across the SD/NE border, likely producing damaging winds and hail. Northwest winds aloft along with a southwesterly low-level jet increasing to 40 kt will continue to support this complex as it moves wholly into NE. Veering winds with height may support a brief tornado for the more cellular parts of the complex, but the tendency for merged outflows will maximize damaging wind potential. ...Northern Oregon... Scattered storms persist across much of central and eastern Oregon and into southwest Idaho and northern Nevada, beneath cold temperatures aloft as the upper low moves ashore. Pockets of steep low-level lapse rates ahead of any storms will foster strong outflow winds, possibly damaging. Moisture content is maximized over northern Oregon, and this may favor marginal hail at times as storms move into that area. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2019 Read more

MD 1683 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565... FOR OR
Mesoscale Discussion 1683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Areas affected...OR Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565... Valid 100052Z - 100215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat is shifting north across Oregon. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing ahead of short-wave trough is spreading north across OR early this evening. Scattered strong convection has developed ahead of this feature which is now spreading across northern-eastern portions of the State. As drying surges north, robust thunderstorms are expected to spread into northeast OR over the next few hours. Gusty winds/hail are the primary threats. ..Darrow.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...PQR... LAT...LON 44712215 45142012 44501964 43852076 43772212 44712215 Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE RDM TO 45 SSW RDM TO 75 SW RDM TO 55 SE EUG TO 30 SE EUG. ..SPC..08/10/19 ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC013-017-031-039-069-100140- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK DESCHUTES JEFFERSON LANE WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019 Areas affected...Southeastern South Dakota...northeastern Nebraska...and far northwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 092359Z - 100200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A downstream WW may be needed across portions of the discussion area by 01Z or so. DISCUSSION...Surface-based storms in south-central South Dakota are continuing to grow upscale while forward-propagating east-southeastward. The presence of locally enhanced low-level shear near a warm front bisecting the region from WNW-ESE will assist in occasional rotation in a few cells along with continued organization of the ongoing complex in the presence of moderate buoyancy. These storms will pose a hail/wind and isolated tornado risk through the evening, and with 290/30 storm motions, these storms should reach the southeastern extent of WW 564 during the 0130-0230Z time frame. Before this time, local extensions of WW 564 or a new WW (likely Severe Thunderstorm) will be coordinated with affected offices. ..Cook/Hart.. 08/09/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43130020 43350013 43429994 43479948 43759913 44099872 44389820 44449770 44009663 42999602 42289612 41889691 41879792 42269925 42549994 42970018 43130020 Read more