Aggregator

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Jul 01 the center of Flossie was located near 17.7, -106.7 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 3 76(79) 17(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 20N 110W 50 X 29(29) 48(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 20N 110W 64 X 10(10) 35(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 17(19) 18(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 240 WTPZ21 KNHC 012031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 75SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EKN TO 20 ENE CXY TO 20 SSE AVP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533. ..GRAMS..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-012140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-012140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-012140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EKN TO 20 ENE CXY TO 20 SSE AVP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533. ..GRAMS..07/01/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-012140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-012140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-012140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support organized thunderstorms. ...Northeast... As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms. Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later available guidance. ...Northern High Plains... A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a few instances of severe wind and hail expected. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast this afternoon/evening. A few severe thunderstorms are possible over western parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...20z Update... A Marginal Risk was added across southwestern MT into central ID with this outlook. While instability is modest, lapse rates are steep and forecast soundings show characteristic inverted-v. This suggests that the widely scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be capable of occasionally strong to severe winds, supporting addition of a 5% wind risk. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough extending from western QC through the middle OH Valley into the Mid MS Valley. Regional radar imagery depicts showers and thunderstorms preceding this wave from across the mid/upper OH Valley, with the stronger storms occurring along an associated cold front that extends from far western NY southwestward across western PA and along the WV/OH border through eastern KY. The general expectation throughout the day is for this shortwave trough and associated cold front to progress eastward into the increasingly moist and unstable airmass downstream, promoting widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow extends through the eastern periphery of this wave, with the strongest flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) expected to move across NY and New England. Given the more northern trajectory of the stronger flow, there will be limited overlap between the strongest flow and the better buoyancy, which will remain farther south across the Mid-Atlantic. Even so, the overall environment will support some organization of storms into line segments/clusters. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage with time and numerous thunderstorms are expected by mid-late afternoon while moving east from PA/WV in NJ/VA/MD. Recently issued MCD #1529 also addresses the severe potential in this region. More limited storm coverage is anticipated farther north. Strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger downdrafts. ...Black Hills/SD into the Central High Plains... A weak shortwave trough is currently progressing through eastern MT and eastern WY, throughout the northern periphery of the upper ridging that extends from the southern Plains through the northern Rockies. This wave is forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, eventually interacting with the moderate low-level moisture expected to advect northward across western portions of KS, NE and SD. Ascent attendant to this wave will augment low-level convergence near an associated surface low to foster afternoon thunderstorm development. Low-level southerly flow veering to northwesterly aloft will foster moderate effective shear (i.e. 30 to 40 kt) and the potential for a couple of supercells. Large hail will be the primary risk with these storms. Some additional thunderstorms are possible later tonight across far southern ND and central/eastern SD as a strengthening low-level jet contributes to warm-air advection across a developing warm frontal zone. Moderate shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated large hail. ...Central Appalachians into the Southeast... Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across a large area from the central Appalachians and Carolinas southwestward into the Southeast, along or just ahead of a weak, eastward-progressing cold front. Limited vertical shear should promote less organized storms, although a few strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing damaging winds are possible. Read more