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MD 1535 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012049Z - 012215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Localized strong gusts producing isolated damaging winds should persist as storms spread east across southern New England through sunset. DISCUSSION...The northern portion of the broad convective swath across the eastern states has yielded localized strong gusts and isolated damaging winds, with mainly semi-discrete cells earlier. Convection has more recently consolidated into clusters and short linear segments across the Lower Hudson Valley. Outflow from earlier cells which exited the Mohawk Valley may merge with this slow-moving leading convection and should support persistence of sporadic strong gusts eastward. These will be favored where surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s prior to sunset. ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41697382 42257310 42547278 42467179 42437107 42257083 41857092 41557135 41397203 41277295 41057362 41127408 41347417 41697382 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0482 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0482 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 482 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 012205Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storm development, potentially including a couple of high-based supercells, is expected regionally through early evening, with the possibility that a loosely organized cluster could evolve later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north of Rapid City SD to 50 miles east of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1534 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Idaho into southwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012031Z - 012200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a few areas of convection that have developed during peak heating, mostly confined to high terrain areas. This activity is developing in a relatively dry boundary layer characterized by dew point temperatures in the 40s F. Yet, strong heating has yielded strong low-level lapse rates, exceeding 9 C/km in most areas, and inverted-V profiles. Thus, strong downdraft winds are likely with any convective elements throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as the activity gradually moves off high terrain areas. However, given the expectation for somewhat sparse coverage of storms, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 45311353 45821314 46331196 46381151 45971105 44811087 42851118 42401218 42441297 42801357 44101361 45311353 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:31 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more