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MD 1534 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Idaho into southwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012031Z - 012200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a few areas of convection that have developed during peak heating, mostly confined to high terrain areas. This activity is developing in a relatively dry boundary layer characterized by dew point temperatures in the 40s F. Yet, strong heating has yielded strong low-level lapse rates, exceeding 9 C/km in most areas, and inverted-V profiles. Thus, strong downdraft winds are likely with any convective elements throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as the activity gradually moves off high terrain areas. However, given the expectation for somewhat sparse coverage of storms, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 45311353 45821314 46331196 46381151 45971105 44811087 42851118 42401218 42441297 42801357 44101361 45311353 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 21:21:31 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z ...Days 3-5/Thursday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward from the Intermountain West into the eastern U.S. through Day 5/Saturday while an upper-level trough and cooler temperatures move into the Pacific Northwest, mitigating fire weather concerns into the weekend. A mid-level short-wave trough ejects into the Great Basin Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday bringing a period of stronger downslope flow into western Nevada on Thursday, increasing the fire weather threat amid drying fuels. A 50-60 knot mid-level jet associated with the short-wave and an increasingly dry boundary layer will also support stronger southwest winds across the southern Great Basin, increasing wildfire spread potential. A mix of diurnally driven wet/dry thunderstorms across the Intermountain West within a residual monsoon moisture plume will decrease in coverage from west to east as a dry southwest flow pattern is established across the Southwest. ...Days 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday... Dry southwest flow aloft will keep monsoon moisture and associated daytime convection primarily along the Continental Divide on Day 6/Sunday. A return of monsoon moisture into Lower Colorado River Basin could return by Day 8/Tuesday in response to a nascent Four Corners High, but forecast uncertainty in timing of moisture return precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:34:31 GMT

MD 1533 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... FOR MID-ATLANTIC STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 1533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481... Valid 011902Z - 012100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple clusters spreading across the Piedmont to Coastal Plain should produce swaths of damaging winds as activity reaches Chesapeake/Delaware Bays and the adjacent Mid-Atlantic Coast. DISCUSSION...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are ongoing with multiple consolidating clusters over central to southeast PA and northern VA. The northwesternmost of these has maintained coherent but sub-severe outflow that should spell the end of severe potential in its wake. With potential for cold pool intensification, this cluster may accelerate and merge into the leading clusters. This would consequently increase damaging wind potential across the DE to Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Low to mid 90s surface temperatures, away from any immediate marine influence, are common in these regions, supporting peak MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg ahead of the clusters. Strong to localized severe gust potential is expected to peak in the next 2-4 hours. ..Grams.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40477673 40307517 40177397 39757392 38857467 38287506 37917607 37807693 38057820 38397867 38597831 38777757 39457695 39927719 40147729 40477673 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 280 WTPZ41 KNHC 012032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 Flossie continues to intensify this afternoon, with deep cold convection wrapping around the eyewall. GOES satellite visible imagery shows an eye has been trying to clear out and warm throughout the day. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are between 90-95 kt. Based on the latest trends and these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is 300/9 kt. A general west-northwest to northwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as Flossie moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As the system begins to weaken, a more westward motion is anticipated as the storm is steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast track lies near the previous, which is near the HCCA corrected consensus. Flossie will remain in a favorable environment, with warm SSTs, plentiful moisture, and weak wind shear for the next 12-24 hours. Along the forecast track the system will be moving into increasingly cooler SSTs and drier air in about 24 h. The latest NHC forecast is for some additional strengthening in the short term, which is above all available guidance. Afterwards, Flossie is expected to rapidly weaken, with the system becoming post-tropical by 72 h, and a remnant low by 96 h and dissipated by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance in the short term, before trending towards the consensus aids as the system weakens. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 526 WTPZ31 KNHC 012032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 106.7W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches for the southwestern coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 106.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today and tonight. By Wednesday, steady to rapid weakening is expected. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Hurricane Flossie should produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches, across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams