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MD 1449 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Areas affected...Southwest Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111630Z - 111830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible over the next hour or two as the line of storms moving across Lake Michigan moves into southwest Lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of storms has intensified as it moves over southern Lake Michigan. Low-level stability in place suggests these storms are currently elevated. The downstream air mass across southwest Lower MI is currently characterized by upper 70s temperatures, low 60s dewpoints, and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE (based on recent mesoanalysis). Some additional heating/moistening of the low-levels is anticipated, but low-level stability should persist, likely limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, some isolated gusty winds appear probable as occasional downbursts penetrate the low-level stability. Limited severe coverage should preclude the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41968656 42398630 42938622 43388643 43538623 43398555 43038505 42458502 41928536 41798622 41968656 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of wind damage will be possible across parts of Illinois into Indiana and Lower Michigan today. Isolated strong-severe wind gusts and hail may also occur from Missouri west-southwestward into the south-central High Plains and across other parts of the upper Great Lakes. ...Central IL to Lower MI late this afternoon into early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN will progress east-southeastward over the Great Lakes by tonight, as an associated/weak surface cold front moves southeastward into KS/MO/IL/MI. An overnight MCS has largely dissipated across northern IL this morning (aside from a few elevated storms over southern Lake MI), but lingering cloud debris will slow surface heating into early afternoon. By mid-late afternoon, pockets of surface heating and eastward advection of low-level moisture along the cold front will result in sufficient destabilization and weakening of the cap to allow thunderstorm development from northern IL across northern IN into southern Lower MI by this evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and corridor of storm initiation, given lingering clouds and modest forcing for ascent. If storms do form from IL into Lower MI by this evening along the front and/or differential heating zone, moderate buoyancy and 50 kt midlevel flow will support a threat for damaging outflow gusts. ...Northeast MN into WI/northern Lower MI through this evening... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread southeastward through this afternoon/evening, from northeast MN across WI and northern Lower MI in the zone of strongest forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough over MN. There could be sufficient residual low-level moisture, cooling midlevel temperatures, and deep-layer vertical shear (largely straight hodographs) for some organized clusters/low-topped supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and large hail. ...Southeast CO/KS/MO late this afternoon into early tonight... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front late this afternoon/evening from MO into southern KS in conjunction with deep mixing along the cold front. Somewhat greater storm coverage expected across southeast CO/northeast NM in the upslope flow regime immediately north of the front. Vertical shear will be weak south of the front, with somewhat longer hodographs in the sheltered northeasterly low-level flow to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Primarily multicell clusters will be capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts in the hot, steep low-level lapse rate environment along the front, and convection could linger into the overnight hours in the zone of richer moisture to the cool side of the boundary. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/11/2022 Read more

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111454 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 What a difference 24 hours makes! Darby has been rapidly intensifying for the last 12-18 hours, with the eye continuing to clear out on GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery surrounded by a thick ring of cold -65 to -75C cloud top temperatures. It is clear that the tropical cyclone was able to mix out the remaining dry air near its center last night and the last several microwave passes from GMI at 0732 UTC and AMSR2 at 0959 UTC have an impressive presentation with a thick ring of eyewall convection on the 89-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are constrained due to Dvorak rules, but their data-T numbers were both T5.5/102 kt. The most recent CI number from the UW-CIMSS objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) was at T6.0/115 kt. Favoring the higher ADT estimate more, the current intensity is set to 110 kt, though this could be conservative. There are no obvious signs currently that would prevent Darby from intensifying further. There are few indications that an eyewall replacement cycle is imminent from the earlier microwave imagery and SHIPS guidance indicates the storm remains in a very low shear (near 5 kt) environment and over sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures (27-28 C). Thus, rapid intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 h, and the NHC foreast intensity peaks Darby at 120 kt, which matches the latest ECMWF- and GFS-based SHIPS which have correctly been on the high side of the guidance envelope. After 36 hours, Darby is expected to move into sub 26C SSTs, and westerly shear is forecast to increase between 48-72 hours. Thus, the small vortex of Darby could weaken rapidly after 36 hours, with the latest intensity forecast still making the system a post-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period. Darby is continuing westward along at the same general speed and heading at 270/13 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered to its north. The hurricane is expected to approach a slight weakness in the ridge after 24 hours, allowing the cyclone to gradually shift to a more west-northwestward track between 36-72 hours. However, by the end of the forecast period, as Darby becomes shallow vortex, its track will likely bend back westward as the low-level trade wind flow becomes dominant. The latest track forecast is not all that different from the previous one, choosing to remain close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GEFX) which remains just a bit north of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE, which are influenced by the further south tracks of the weaker HWRF/HMON/UKMET guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 123.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Jul 2022 14:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Jul 2022 15:24:05 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 146 FOPZ15 KNHC 111449 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 125W 64 28 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 130W 34 X 14(14) 82(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 76(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 130W 64 X 1( 1) 52(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 39(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 111449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 ...DARBY STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH 125 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 123.4W ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Major Hurricane Darby was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 123.4 West. Darby is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the west-northwest beginning by Tuesday. Darby has been rapidly intensifying this morning and maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast today, and Darby is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane. Weakening is then forecast to begin by midweek. Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 111448 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052022 1500 UTC MON JUL 11 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.4W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.4W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...DARBY STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH 125 MPH WINDS... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Jul 11 the center of Darby was located near 14.6, -123.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of wind damage will be possible across parts of Illinois into Indiana and Lower Michigan today. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail may also occur from Missouri west-southwestward into the south-central High Plains and across other parts of the Great Lakes. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A relatively compact (60 miles north-south) cluster of storms, with a history of wind damage/measured severe gusts from eastern Nebraska across the middle part of Iowa, continues eastward into northwest Illinois as of 1230z/730am CDT. This cluster should continue to weaken this morning as it becomes increasingly removed from a reservoir of moisture/instability, but locally strong wind gusts and possibly some hail may continue in the short-term. For additional near-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1448. This MCS, and expected renewed convective development later today, are/will be influenced with a seasonally strong amplifying mid-level shortwave trough crossing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today and tonight. Spatial/timing details are a bit uncertain, but areas/near south of the ongoing early morning MCS will be favored for renewed convective development near/ahead of the southeastward-moving front late this afternoon, which includes a corridor across northern Illinois into northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan. Strong destabilization is expected particularly across north-central Illinois, although stronger deep-layer shear/forcing for ascent will be a bit compensatory for more moderate destabilization across northern Indiana into Lower Michigan. Storms that form will likely be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Owing to weaker overall forcing and more substantial mid-level warmth with south-southwestward extent, storm development late this afternoon/early evening should be a bit more isolated near the front from western Illinois into Missouri, although steep low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will yield at least a conditional or isolated potential for storms to produce severe wind gusts. ...Portions of Minnesota/Wisconsin/Upper Michigan... Marginal-related wind/hail probabilities have been introduced for the region. Amplifying shortwave trough-related seasonably cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to weak inhibition and modest boundary layer destabilization even while moisture diminishes within the post-frontal environment. Scattered semi-low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase during the afternoon with a few instances of hail and/or strong winds being possible. ...South-central Plains... Intense surface heating ahead of the southward-advancing front across the southern High Plains into Kansas will result in dry adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 3km as temperatures soar above 100F. Low-level upslope trajectories will also influence thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa vicinity late in the day. High cloud bases and low RH in the sub-cloud layer may support some storms capable of localized severe-caliber wind gusts with the convection late this afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/11/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111143
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 11 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico within the next day or two. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
thereafter, and this system could become a tropical depression by
late this week. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the
southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Crops yields are already taking a hit from the drought in central Indiana and will only go lower if rain does not fall within the next week to 10 days. FOX 59 (Indianapolis, Ind.), July 7, 2022

Fredericksburg has been in Stage 3 for the past decade, but is considering moving to Stage 4 as the level of the aquifer drops. The Knauth Well Field is 33 feet lower than at this time last year, and the Boerner Well Field was 10 feet lower than in 2021. Fredericksburg Standard Online (Texas), July 8, 2022

The hot, dry weather has damaged corn and other crops in north Alabama. A cotton agronomist for the Alabama Cooperative Extension Service said that cotton could still recover with rain, but the yield could be halved this year. Associated Press News (New York), July 8, 2022

On the afternoon of July 9, 2022, fire started 9 miles northwest. Fire was located in heavy juniper and mesquite terrain. Multiple local fire departments responded to assist, along with State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS). TAMFS and local fire department are working in unified

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 10 16:44:10 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The current forecast remains on track. No changes made. ... Western Kansas ... Relative humidity is still forecast to fall into the low teens this afternoon, with surface winds up to 20 mph, with gusts approaching 30 mph. However, fuel moisture should remain sufficiently high to warrant a more widespread critical fire weather threat. Thus, despite the possibility of brief, localized critical fire weather conditions being achieved, no critical highlights have been added. ..Marsh.. 07/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies amid breezy conditions and dry-thunderstorm chances, but will also emerge across parts of western KS and adjacent areas of CO and NE. ...Idaho into Wyoming... Recent upper-air observations and analyses show a diffuse cold front draped across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies associated with a passing mid-level wave. This feature will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region, but also induce 15-20 mph westerly winds across the upper Snake River Plain in southeast ID as well as across the Wyoming Basin. Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are possible by early/mid afternoon as stronger mid-level flow mixes down to the surface. Despite the cooler temperatures, poor moisture recovery into the region and some degree of downslope flow (especially through the Wyoming Basin) will result in the RH values near 10-15%. Confidence remains high in several hours of elevated conditions, but periodic critical conditions are possible for wind-prone locations and where/when higher wind gusts occur. ...Utah/Dry-Thunderstorms... Water-vapor imagery reveals a plume of monsoonal moisture advecting northward through eastern NV and western AZ on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge. This moisture was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding, and should reach UT/CO by early afternoon. While forcing for ascent will be modest (and should limit the coverage of storms), forecast soundings continue to show favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE, deep, well-mixed boundary layers, and PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.75 inches. Slow storm motions may limit the number of dry strikes, but receptive fuels across the region warrant maintaining the dry-thunderstorm risk. ...Western Kansas... A lee trough noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains is forecast to shift into the central Plains as an attendant surface low migrates east into the upper MS River Valley. This will augment the regional pressure gradient, resulting in sustained surface winds up to 15-20 mph. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures with afternoon highs between 100-105 F for western KS. This will result in widespread RH reduction to 10-20% by late afternoon. Although most fuels are only modestly dry, 1 and 10 hour fuel moisture values between 5-10% should support at least a low-end fire weather concern. A few high-based thunderstorms are possible across northwest KS this afternoon, and may result in gusty outflow winds across parts of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains today into tonight. A few strong storms may also occur today from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. ...MN and vicinity through late evening... The ongoing MCS across northern MN has been more resilient than all recent numerical model guidance (both mesoscale and CAM), and it may persist eastward into northeast MN through early afternoon as surface heating/destabilization continues to its east. Given the organized nature of the cold pool and its relatively fast motion, damaging gusts will remain possible into early afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon along the outflow boundary trailing west/southwestward from the MCS into west central MN and southeast ND. This area will likely remain capped until mid afternoon as a result of the warm elevated mixed layer noted in the 12z ABR sounding. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-70 F beneath 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates, in concert with daytime heating, should weaken convective inhibition and allow thunderstorm development around 21-22z. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail and a tornado or two. Some upscale growth into a small cluster will be possible, with an attendant threat for damaging winds as the convection moves southeastward toward east central MN. ...NE WY and vicinity late this afternoon through early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest MT this morning will crest the midlevel ridge and begin to move east-southeastward by early tonight. Residual low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, and a reinforcing cold frontal surge may be sufficient for high-based thunderstorm development by this evening, with storms subsequently spreading southeastward into early tonight. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be favorable for supercells/small bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ...NE late this afternoon into early tonight... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a cold front will promote high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon, and storms will spread east-northeastward along the front toward IA into early tonight. Vertical shear will generally be weak, but inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE (~1500 J/kg) will favor strong-severe outflow gusts. ...Northwest Gulf Coast this afternoon... A weak cold front is sagging southward across the Gulf Coast states in association with a weak midlevel trough moving southward around the eastern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern High Plains. A hot/humid boundary layer persists south of the front from southeast TX into southern LA, where Large CAPE (> 3000 J/kg) and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging downbursts with pulse-type cells and loosely organized, southward moving clusters this afternoon. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/10/2022 Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DTL TO 35 S RRT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436 ..MOSIER..07/10/22 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-057-101640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI HUBBARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0456 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 456 SEVERE TSTM MN 101515Z - 101900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North central and northeast Minnesota * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1015 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...An ongoing convective system is expected to continue eastward across northern Minnesota for the next few hours, with the threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail to near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of International Falls MN to 35 miles east southeast of Brainerd MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 455... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Thompson Read more