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Hundreds of fish were dying in a Richmond pond, creating a strong odor in the neighborhood. The residents were angry that more was not done to save the fish. The residents stocked the pond themselves and tried to relocate the few surviving fish. KRIV-TV FOX 26 Houston (Texas), July 13, 2022

At 2:30 pm, Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance with a fire directly southeast of Mineral Wels, TX. Resources from the local office quickly responded and begin suppression actions along side fire departments from Palo Pinto and Parker counties. Firefighting aircraft were used to knock down the head and dozers constructed line around the perimeter of the

 On the afternoon of July 12, 2022, a fire started 4 miles west of Petrolia, in Clay County. Multiple fire departments responded to mutual aid. The fire is located in very rough terrain, hills, and multiple drop-offs. Fuels are tall grass, thick brush and mesquite. Due to access issues Petrolia VFD requested stated assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS). Local incident commander, and TAMFS are working in unified

North Texas ranchers are deeply culling cattle as grass and water were in short supply amid a hot drought. Ranchers brought more than 2,600 animals to the Decatur Livestock Market, which is the most livestock sold in a single sale since the 2011 drought. Almost all of the buyers were meatpackers. Some counties were dealing with grasshoppers, and stock ponds were running low also. CBS Dallas/Fort Worth (Texas), July 11, 2022

The Post Oak fire has transitioned command back to the local departments.  On Wednesday, July 6th at approximately 3:00pm, Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) responded to a request for assistance in Coryell County near Oglesby. The fire is burning in thick juniper on a difficult to access ridgeline. Resources on scene for initial attack included: 5 dozers, 3 Fire Boss single engine air tankers (water), 3 single engine air tankers (retardant), 3 helicopters, and one air attack platform.  Containment line has been established and a handcrew is working on hot spots in areas of rough terrain. Several volunteer fire departments were on scene during initial attack, including Gatesville, Flat, Oglesby, Osage-Coryell City, and Coryell Office of Emergency Management. TXDOT and Coryell Sheriff's Department are assisting with

Cattle prices at auction in Abilene were reportedly down nearly half of what they were in 2019-2020 on July 12, due to rising feed costs and the extreme drought hitting the Big Country*. Traffic was heavy with more ranchers than usual bringing animals to sell. The extreme heat has dried up pastures and water supplies, making it hard to care for livestock under those conditions, especially given the high cost of feed, hay bales, fertilizer, etc. At the Graham auction, more than 4,000 head with about 1,300 cows were sold. In Abilene, the general manager of the auction was expecting more than 2,000 head with about 700 to 800 cows. Sales at Abilene Livestock Auction were nearly 40% higher since the start of the year. The general manager said that ranchers were selling their livestock early to make as much money as possible. BigCountryHomepage.com (Abilene, Texas), July 12, 2022

Irrigation water in southwest Colorado was cut, adversely affecting irrigated hay producers who expect fewer cuttings this year as well as livestock producers with irrigated pasture. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), July 12, 2022

On the afternoon of July 9, 2022, fire started 6 miles northwest. Fire is located in extremely difficult terrain, and very thick cedar and mesquite. Multiple local fire departments responded to assist, along with State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) and Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS). TAMFS and Seymour Volunteer Fire Department are working in unified

On the evening of July 10, 2022, fire started 4.5 miles northeast of Eliasville. Fire is located in rough terrain, thick oak, mesquite, and brush. Multiple local fire departments responded to assist, along with State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS). TAMFS and local fire department are working in unified

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 13 17:59:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1468 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1468 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia into eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131757Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and isolated large hail may accompany the stronger storms this afternoon, especially in SC into southern NC. A WW issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...The combination of weak mid-level troughing, lee surface troughing, and ample heating of a moist low-level airmass has supported increased storm coverage/intensity across the Southeast Atlantic Coastline within the past hour or so. The rich low-level moisture and modest low-level lapse rates are contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 17Z mesoanalysis. In addition, RAP forecast soundings show unidirectional (southwesterly) tropospheric flow, but some speed shear in the surface-500 mb layer, contributing to 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, marginal organization of stronger multicell clusters/transient supercells may support a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail this afternoon. A locally more organized severe threat may also materialize across eastern SC into far southern NC given the modest shear profiles. A WW issuance is possible if storms continue to intensify across SC. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... TAE... LAT...LON 30798342 33408108 36167802 36577717 36387627 35927589 35157646 33637878 32328014 31308111 30938146 30668249 30798342 Read more

051
ABPZ20 KNHC 131753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Darby, located about 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with the disturbance is beginning to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by Friday or Saturday. The
disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two,
then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend
while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/R. Zelinsky

 Recon flight found a few interior smokes that are no threat to the fire line. Local fire department will continue to patrol and mop up as

MD 1467 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO EXTREME WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into extreme western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131736Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some severe gust potential exists if storms should congeal ahead of a pre-existing outflow boundary. A WW issuance is possible if upscale-growing storms become apparent. DISCUSSION...Mainly elevated storms are in progress across northern MS immediately north of an outflow boundary resulting from earlier convection. This outflow boundary is in the process of stalling along a northwest to southeast oriented line from just west of STF to west of SEM. As the southward-moving convection in northern MS crosses the boundary, the storms will ingest 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE driven by surface temperatures/dewpoints above 90F/75F. Given robust surface-850 mb mixing and 7+ C/km low-level lapse rates, severe gusts may develop from the stronger storms, and a semi-organized wind threat may materialize should storms grow upscale into a convective cluster. Also, the 12Z JAN observed sounding shows mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km. As such, an instance or two of marginally severe hail may also occur. Both observations and model guidance suggest weak tropospheric wind fields and associated shear, so upscale growth/storm organization will be entirely dependent on cold pool mergers. As such, convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon for upscale growth for the consideration of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33909075 33468934 33278858 32898758 32638726 32378725 32038756 31868840 31688914 31718997 32009060 32269080 33089099 33909075 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the Carolinas into Georgia. ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will remain anchored over the western and central U.S., flanked by eastern Pacific and eastern U.S. troughing. A resulting/largely weak surface pattern is expected across most of the U.S., though a weak front lingering across the Southeast will help focus thunderstorms through the period. ...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest... While a capped boundary layer across a large portion of the north-central U.S. will hinder convective development through much of the day, heating/destabilization -- particularly over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies -- will likely yield isolated storm development. Given a belt of enhanced, anticyclonic westerly/west-southwesterly flow aloft around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, storms will spread into lower elevations with time. Given the dry/deep mixed layer, locally gusty/damaging winds may occur near a few of the strongest storms. Meanwhile, convective initiation into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest is difficult to quantify areally/temporally, given the nebulous surface pattern. Development will likely be loosely tied to a short-wave disturbance moving through the anticyclonic belt of flow, especially as a low-level jet strengthens nocturnally. While limited storm coverage expected at this time should temper overall severe potential, ample west-northwesterly/northwesterly flow aloft suggests that a few clusters of southeastward-moving storms will evolve, which would likely be accompanied by some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Such risk will likely continue well into the evening, given low-level warm advection associated with the aforementioned south-southwesterly low-level jet. ...The Southeast... Diurnal heating/destabilization is expected across the Southeast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant cold front expected to extend from southeastern Virginia across the Carolinas, and westward across the central Gulf Coast states. Given the degree of destabilization, weak ascent near this boundary will result in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. While fairly modest shear will limit storm organization, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, which could result in local instances of gusty winds, and perhaps marginal hail, with east-northeastward-moving storms. Risk should diminish through the evening, in tandem with gradual diurnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 07/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the Carolinas into Georgia. ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will remain anchored over the western and central U.S., flanked by eastern Pacific and eastern U.S. troughing. A resulting/largely weak surface pattern is expected across most of the U.S., though a weak front lingering across the Southeast will help focus thunderstorms through the period. ...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest... While a capped boundary layer across a large portion of the north-central U.S. will hinder convective development through much of the day, heating/destabilization -- particularly over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies -- will likely yield isolated storm development. Given a belt of enhanced, anticyclonic westerly/west-southwesterly flow aloft around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, storms will spread into lower elevations with time. Given the dry/deep mixed layer, locally gusty/damaging winds may occur near a few of the strongest storms. Meanwhile, convective initiation into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest is difficult to quantify areally/temporally, given the nebulous surface pattern. Development will likely be loosely tied to a short-wave disturbance moving through the anticyclonic belt of flow, especially as a low-level jet strengthens nocturnally. While limited storm coverage expected at this time should temper overall severe potential, ample west-northwesterly/northwesterly flow aloft suggests that a few clusters of southeastward-moving storms will evolve, which would likely be accompanied by some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Such risk will likely continue well into the evening, given low-level warm advection associated with the aforementioned south-southwesterly low-level jet. ...The Southeast... Diurnal heating/destabilization is expected across the Southeast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant cold front expected to extend from southeastern Virginia across the Carolinas, and westward across the central Gulf Coast states. Given the degree of destabilization, weak ascent near this boundary will result in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. While fairly modest shear will limit storm organization, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, which could result in local instances of gusty winds, and perhaps marginal hail, with east-northeastward-moving storms. Risk should diminish through the evening, in tandem with gradual diurnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 07/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be possible across parts of the northern Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Thursday. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop in parts of the Carolinas into Georgia. ...Synopsis... A large upper ridge will remain anchored over the western and central U.S., flanked by eastern Pacific and eastern U.S. troughing. A resulting/largely weak surface pattern is expected across most of the U.S., though a weak front lingering across the Southeast will help focus thunderstorms through the period. ...Northern Rockies/northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest... While a capped boundary layer across a large portion of the north-central U.S. will hinder convective development through much of the day, heating/destabilization -- particularly over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies -- will likely yield isolated storm development. Given a belt of enhanced, anticyclonic westerly/west-southwesterly flow aloft around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, storms will spread into lower elevations with time. Given the dry/deep mixed layer, locally gusty/damaging winds may occur near a few of the strongest storms. Meanwhile, convective initiation into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest is difficult to quantify areally/temporally, given the nebulous surface pattern. Development will likely be loosely tied to a short-wave disturbance moving through the anticyclonic belt of flow, especially as a low-level jet strengthens nocturnally. While limited storm coverage expected at this time should temper overall severe potential, ample west-northwesterly/northwesterly flow aloft suggests that a few clusters of southeastward-moving storms will evolve, which would likely be accompanied by some risk for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Such risk will likely continue well into the evening, given low-level warm advection associated with the aforementioned south-southwesterly low-level jet. ...The Southeast... Diurnal heating/destabilization is expected across the Southeast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant cold front expected to extend from southeastern Virginia across the Carolinas, and westward across the central Gulf Coast states. Given the degree of destabilization, weak ascent near this boundary will result in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. While fairly modest shear will limit storm organization, some clustering/upscale growth is expected, which could result in local instances of gusty winds, and perhaps marginal hail, with east-northeastward-moving storms. Risk should diminish through the evening, in tandem with gradual diurnal stabilization. ..Goss.. 07/13/2022 Read more

 Fire was checked this morning, few smokes found but no threat to the line. Local fire departments will continue to patrol and mop up as

MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHEASTERN IN...AND NORTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Areas affected...Portions of far southern Lower MI...northeastern IN...and northern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131726Z - 132030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur as thunderstorms move east-southeastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across far southern Lower MI along/near a weak surface front. This convection is occurring beneath a mid/upper-level trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass have contributed to the development of weak instability from parts of southern Lower MI into northern IN/OH. Generally weak west-northwesterly winds at low levels gradually strengthen with height through mid levels. Around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support modest updraft organization, with mainly multicells possible. Isolated instances of strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust convection as it moves east-southeastward this afternoon. The weak instability is expected to limit the overall coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms, and watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 40828634 41368601 41978520 42158474 42118358 41238069 40618078 40118223 40268539 40828634 Read more

MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...NORTHEASTERN IN...AND NORTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 1466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2022 Areas affected...Portions of far southern Lower MI...northeastern IN...and northern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131726Z - 132030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur as thunderstorms move east-southeastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across far southern Lower MI along/near a weak surface front. This convection is occurring beneath a mid/upper-level trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures and daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass have contributed to the development of weak instability from parts of southern Lower MI into northern IN/OH. Generally weak west-northwesterly winds at low levels gradually strengthen with height through mid levels. Around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support modest updraft organization, with mainly multicells possible. Isolated instances of strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust convection as it moves east-southeastward this afternoon. The weak instability is expected to limit the overall coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms, and watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 40828634 41368601 41978520 42158474 42118358 41238069 40618078 40118223 40268539 40828634 Read more