Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Estelle, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
Baja California.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico late this week.
Some slow development is possible after that time while the system
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat will be for destructive, severe gusts and hail today into this evening, from northeastern Montana to northern North Dakota. ...Synopsis... A Four Corners upper ridge will continue to dominate the upper-level flow regime for today with broad troughing over the greater Great Lakes region. A pair of more notable embedded perturbations, one over the Great Lakes with a second approaching the northern Rockies, will drive severe weather chances for this afternoon and into tonight across the northern Great Plains as well as over the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. ...Northern Plains... The eastward progression of a compact upper-level perturbation across the northern Rockies is apparent in mid-morning water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, surface pressure falls are noted across eastern MT and the Dakotas in recent surface observations, and the subsequent mass response is bolstering low-level moisture content with dewpoints increasing into the upper 60s and low 70s. Consequently, a broad warm frontal zone is becoming more apparent across ND and southern Canada. Lift ahead of the wave coupled with ascent along an advancing cold front should support thunderstorm development by late afternoon across eastern MT. Initially discrete cells will mature in an environment with somewhat marginal instability, but elongated hodographs and deep, well-mixed boundary layers that will support organized convection with a severe wind threat, including the potential for significant gusts. Convection will likely intensify as it continues eastward into the Dakotas where boundary-layer moisture will be richer. The best organized severe threat will likely be found in the vicinity of the triple point across northeast MT into northwest ND where lift will locally be maximized. Upscale growth into one or more segments into the late evening/overnight hours is possible across northern ND along a diffuse warm frontal zone. To the east, a strengthening low-level jet will augment warm advection over the frontal zone and support thunderstorm development across northwest to northern MN this evening. Storms will likely propagate to the east/southeast along the frontal zone and within a strong northwesterly flow regime. While storm mode is uncertain, a hail/wind threat appears probable across northern MN into northern lower MI through the overnight hours. ...Mid-Atlantic and New England... Latest analysis shows a surface low gradually deepening across Lake Eerie. This feature will continue to deepen through the day amid increasing mid and upper-level flow. A trailing surface trough should act as the impetus of thunderstorm development from New England into the southern Appalachians as it migrates east through the day. Mid-morning satellite imagery reveals extensive cloud cover across much of the New England region. This cloud cover was also sampled in regional 12 UTC soundings, which featured high column saturation and poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Despite the meager thermodynamic profile, boundary-layer moisture across the region is unseasonably high (surface dewpoints near or above the 90th percentile for mid-July were noted in morning observations). Because of this, any daytime heating that can occur will likely yield adequate buoyancy to support thunderstorm development this afternoon. The degree of destabilization across the New England region is questionable given the extensive cloud cover; however, the increasing flow across the region will boost low-level SRH along a broad warm frontal zone over the region. This will support the potential for not only damaging winds, but a few weak tornadoes as well. To the south across the Mid-Atlantic, patchy cloud cover is allowing for temperatures to quickly warm into the low to mid 80s. Regional VWPs already show winds in the lowest few kilometers increasing to 30 knots, with further strengthening expected through the day. Thunderstorms developing along the front will support a more robust severe wind threat compared to locations further north where instability is more questionable. While low-level hodographs may not feature as much curvature as areas to the north, forecast soundings feature enough low-level veering to support at least a low-end tornado concern. ...Lower Appalachians to Mid-South... A trailing surface trough/cold front draped across the lower Appalachians and into the mid-MS River Valley will support thunderstorm development through the afternoon. While deep-layer flow is meager (recent effective shear estimates near 20-25 knots were noted on recent ACARs soundings), favorable buoyancy should compensate for this weakness and support a damaging wind threat through the afternoon. Latest guidance continues to suggest a cluster of storms across northern MS may consolidate into a more cohesive, southward-propagating convective line that could pose a more widespread damaging wind threat, though confidence this potential remains low given the weak environment flow. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/18/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO... The forecast remains on track without changes. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022/ ...Synopsis... On the northwestern periphery of the strong mid-level anticyclone, a compact and deep upper low will move quickly eastward across the Northwest and northern Rockies today. Flattening the ridge as it passes, strong mid-level westerlies will overspread the northern Great Basin and Rockies, supporting critical fire weather concerns. A strong cold front may also trigger isolated thunderstorms, some dry, across portions of Montana and Wyoming. ...Eastern Idaho and northern Great Basin... With the passage of the strong upper low to the north, a belt of 40-60 kt mid-level flow should bolster low-level surface winds from northern Nevada eastward into portions of central and eastern Idaho. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures should easily support widespread RH below 15% through the afternoon. The strongest winds, and most likely corridor for sustained critical conditions, should remains across eastern Idaho. However, given the strong flow aloft, locally critical conditions will be possible for a few hours in the lee of the Sierra as well. ...Central High Plains... East of the main upper low, very warm temperatures and increasing westerly flow should favor the development of a lee trough across eastern Wyoming and the central High Plains. West/southwest winds near the higher terrain should reach 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts possible. Widespread RH below 20%, gusty winds, and very dry fuels should support elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon and early evening. ...Thunderstorms... Plentiful heating ahead of strong height falls associated with the deep upper low should result in isolated thunderstorms across the northern and central Rockies this afternoon. With these high-based and relatively fast moving storms, wetting rain potential appears low. A few dry strikes are possible, along with gusty and erratic winds with stronger downdrafts. However, the coverage of dry lightning should remain below the threshold for IsoDryT conditions given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1508 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN VA...MD...EASTERN PA...NORTHERN DE...NJ...SOUTHERN NY...WESTERN MA AND CT
Mesoscale Discussion 1508 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Areas affected...parts of far northern VA...MD...eastern PA...northern DE...NJ...southern NY...western MA and CT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181618Z - 181815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southwest New England. The severe threat is expected to increase over the next couple of hours, and a watch will likely be needed for portions of the region. DISCUSSION...Areas of clearing from northern VA into eastern PA/NJ have allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s at midday. This has allowed weak to moderate destabilization to occur amid 70s surface dewpoints. Further north into the Hudson Valley and southwestern New England, thicker cloud cover and showers are keeping temperatures in the low/mid 70s and limiting stronger destabilization. However, some clearing across these areas through the afternoon should allow for modest heating and at least weak destabilization later today. Latest visible satellite indicates a cluster of vertically developing CU near the PA/NJ border as of 16z. Latest radar trends are increasing with this activity as well. This convection is developing along an axis of greater instability extending from the northern Chesapeake Bay toward northern NJ. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase across this area over the next couple of hours. Moderate vertical shear will support organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures capable of damaging gusts. Stronger low-level shear and more favorably curved hodographs will reside from northeast PA/northern NJ toward the lower Hudson Valley. Latest VWP data from KBMG and KENX show enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2. However, weaker instability in conjunction with poor lapse rates may limit intensity/longevity of any stronger cells across this area. Nevertheless, any sustained convection will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes. Given current trends, a watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/18/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38907664 38807723 38987772 39257778 39817763 40777703 41607631 42407532 42507523 42737443 42727351 42587303 42277270 41717255 41317265 40877347 39247597 38907664 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2022 14:49:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 638 WTPZ41 KNHC 181447 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Estelle is beginning to look a little better organized based on satellite imagery. First-light visible pictures show the center of the cyclone is now embedded in the central dense overcast. Observations from Socorro Island confirm that they are within the estimated tropical-storm-force radii. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 65 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, representing a blend of these estimates. Low to moderate northerly wind shear is expected to limit the future strengthening of the system in the next day or so. However, warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of near-storm environmental moisture may allow for some slight intensification within a day. Beyond 36 hours, Estelle should cross the 26 degrees C sea surface isotherm and move over increasingly colder waters. This and the drier surrounding environment should cause the hurricane to weaken to a remnant low by the weekend. The official forecast is slightly higher than the model guidance in the short term forecast and then follows the multi-model consensus guidance after 36 hours. The hurricane is moving west-northwest at about 12 kt. This general motion is predicted to continue for the next few days as Estelle is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Later in the forecast period, low-level trade winds should turn the weaker system westward. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory and only slightly north of the model consensus guidance, TVCE. Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 911 WTPZ31 KNHC 181444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 ...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 111.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.1 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). An automated Mexican Navy weather station on Socorro Island recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and gusts to 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 the center of Estelle was located near 18.0, -111.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181444 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 16 80(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ISLA CLARION 50 1 70(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ISLA CLARION 64 X 36(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 4 56(60) 7(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 55(70) 7(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181442 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

The South Bend Fire was reported the afternoon of July 14. Fire is burning in hard-to-access terrain approximately 2.5 miles west of Eliasville in Young County.  Resources assigned to the Burkburnett Texas A&M Forest Service office responded, along with strike team of engines. Aviation resources composed of air attack platform, helicopter and fire bosses have assisted with suppression efforts.  Texas A&M Forest Service is working in unified command with the local jurisdiction. Cause is under

Fire is 100% contained.  Local fire department to

On July 15, 2022 Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance with a wildfire located on the Rockwall and Kaufman county line. Resources from the Greenville office quickly responded to the fire and tied in with local fire departments. Working in Unified Command all of the resources present worked to suppress the fire with dozers and engines. With continued hot and dry conditions, fires will remain a threat for the next

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 17 17:55:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 17 17:55:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... CORRECTED FOR A COUPLE TYPOS ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorm development is possible near the Canadian/U.S. border, from the Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, as well as across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic region, Monday afternoon into Monday night. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric ridging will generally persist from the subtropical western Atlantic through much of the southern and central tier of the U.S. through this period. This will continue to include one prominent embedded mid-level high centered over the southern Rockies vicinity, and another elongated along 30N latitude across the western Atlantic, with weak mean troughing in between, roughly along an axis from the lower Mississippi Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians. It does appear that flow may become a bit more progressive across the northern tier of the U.S., with a vigorous short wave trough and embedded low within one belt of westerlies forecast to accelerate across the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains by late Monday night. Downstream, a more modest impulse likely will accelerate from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity through northern New England. Both of these perturbations (preceding significant short wave impulses within a branch to the north, including one digging near or just south of southern Hudson Bay and another accelerating inland of the British Columbia coast) may be accompanied by surface cyclogenesis, with the lead cyclone probably becoming the more prominent while migrating from the lee of the lower Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Pre-frontal surface troughing, extending from near the migratory low southward through the Mid Atlantic, likely will become the focus for the more prominent boundary-layer destabilization during the day Monday. The boundary-layer probably will become characterized by seasonably high moisture content, but lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are expected to be generally weak, and most guidance suggests that CAPE may not reach 1000 J/kg. However, a belt of 30-40+ kt southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer will potentially contribute to an environment conducive to organized convection given sufficient destabilization. It is possible that this could include a couple of supercells with a risk for tornadoes, particularly across the Poconos and Catskills into Hudson Valley vicinity by late Monday afternoon. ...Northern Rockies into upper Great Lakes region... In association with the short wave developments, models indicate that a lower/mid tropospheric front within an evolving deformation zone will become focused near the international border area, from the Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. Along and to the southwest of this front, a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to advect east of the Rockies. At mid-levels (around 700 mb) the northeastern periphery of this air mass may generally extend from north of the international border across the Great Plains into the western Lake Superior/Upper Michigan vicinity by early Monday evening. Beneath this regime, in the presence of moderate west/northwesterly mid-level flow, there may be sufficient moisture to contribute to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg, and the environment appears likely to become at least conditionally supportive of severe storms, potentially including isolated supercells and organizing storm clusters. However, forcing to overcome the mid-level inhibition remains unclear across much of the region. Most guidance does appear to suggest that a concentrated area of strong forcing for ascent, just to the east-northeast of the approaching mid-level low, may overcome inhibition and promote sustained thunderstorm development across parts of northeastern Montana by early Monday evening. This may be accompanied by the risk for severe wind and hail, which probably will spread into portions of northwestern and north central North Dakota through Monday night. ..Kerr.. 07/17/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Estelle, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail are possible today from the Ozarks to the central Appalachians, as well as across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. ...Synopsis... A pair of weak upper-level disturbances/MCVs remain evident in mid-level reflectivity mosaics across central IL and the upper OH River Valley. Embedded within a broad trough across the great Great Lakes region, these features are expected to continue to propagate to the east/northeast through the day. Widespread stratiform rain with embedded convection in the vicinity of these two features is diabatically reinforcing a stalled cold front draped through the OH River Valley into the southern Plains. This front is expected to gradually migrate southward through the day and will likely be the impetus for thunderstorm development and/or intensification later this afternoon. Across the west, ample monsoonal moisture across the Great Four Corners region and into the northern Rockies will support scattered thunderstorm development with the potential for severe downburst winds. ...Upper OH River Valley... The ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the mid to upper OH River Valley are limiting the potential for daytime heating across the region. Temperatures are currently struggling to climb above the mid 70s with few breaks in cloud cover expected through at least mid afternoon. With lift and modest, but sufficient, deep-layer flow already in place ahead of the MCVs, the greater severe threat will likely reside along and south of the OH River Valley where some destabilization is already noted. Latest CAMs support this idea and show clusters developing by late afternoon through the region. Severe probabilities have been adjusted southward to reflect this trend. ...Ozark Plateau into the lower OH River Valley... Morning showers and thunderstorms across southern MO and into adjacent parts of AR, IL, and KY will likely limit diurnal heating through at least early afternoon. Some guidance suggests sufficient clearing can take place to allow thunderstorm development across central to southern MO by mid-afternoon, and latest visible satellite imagery and surface temperature trends across western MO support this idea, but the degree of destabilization that can occur remains uncertain. Confidence in storm development is higher to the south across AR and into the mid-MS River Valley where destabilization is already ongoing with temperatures climbing into the low/mid 80s. While mid to upper-level flow will be modest, adequate deep-layer shear should be in place to support semi-discrete storms to clusters from western AR into western KY/TN to support an isolated hail/severe wind threat. A brief tornado or two appears possible across the mid-MS River Valley region where low-level helicity along and just ahead of the front will be maximized, but confidence in storm mode and coverage remains too limited for higher probabilities. ...Red River Valley of the North... Latest surface observations across northeast ND into northwest MN show surface pressure falling over the past several hours, which is resulting in a slight bolstering of generally southerly low-level flow through the region. In turn, dewpoints have increased into the 70s through the region, which is boosting MLCAPE estimates to over 2000 J/kg. Despite the improving buoyancy, 12 UTC soundings from BIS and ABR reveal some mixed-layer inhibition, which remains a concern for convective potential later this afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest this inhibition may become negligible by this afternoon, and several CAMs show discrete supercell potential as storms develop along a weak surface trough. However, some spread in guidance remains with other solutions showing little to no activity south of the international border. The Marginal risk has been expanded south to encompass much of the Red River Valley, but this is to more accurately address spatial extent of the severe threat rather than indicate an increase in the probability for thunderstorms. ...Montana... Morning soundings from MT and ID sampled 50-60 knot winds aloft ahead of a shortwave trough located across the Pacific Northwest. These soundings also sampled mid-level monsoonal moisture and fairly dry boundary layers. With daytime heating already underway, thermodynamic profiles across southern MT should be favorable for thunderstorms with strong to severe downbursts by late this afternoon. Combined ascent ahead of the shortwave trough and via orographic ascent should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the region. ...Nevada/Utah... Similar to southern MT, 12 UTC soundings from LKN, VEF, and SLC all sampled dry boundary layers with adequate mid-level monsoonal moisture to support thunderstorms by this afternoon. Forecast soundings show 2 to 3 km deep sub-cloud layers with steep low-level lapse rates that will be supportive of strong to severe downburst winds. Latest CAM guidance shows a strong convective signal across northeast NV into northwest UT this afternoon, which gives sufficient confidence to introduce severe wind probabilities given the expected thermodynamic environment. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/17/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The ongoing forecast reasoning remains valid. Locally critical fire weather remains possible in far northwest Nevada into southeastern Oregon. See the previous discussion for further information. ..Wendt.. 07/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022/ ...Synopsis... To the northwest of a prominent anticyclone over the Southwest, a deepening Pacific trough will move ashore, overspreading strong flow aloft across the Northwest and Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front will move inland triggering isolated thunderstorms along the Cascades and northern Rockies. The strong surface flow, and dry/warm conditions across the southern Cascades/Great Basin will support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. ...Northern Great Basin... With flow aloft strengthening on the periphery of the upper ridge, dry downslope winds will develop off the Sierra and into the northern Great Basin this afternoon and evening. Deep mixing within the dry airmass across the region will support sustained winds of 15-20 mph and locally higher gusts. With widespread surface RH expected below 15%, the environment will easily support widespread elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions into early evening. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower, owing to borderline winds. However, the most likely corridor for some critical concerns appears to be across far northern NV into southeastern OR closer to the mid-level jet axis. A few hours of stronger sustained winds may develop here, but confidence remains too low for a Critical area at this time. Farther east, modest mid-level moisture on the periphery of the ridge will support a few thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern ID. Model soundings show high-based and fast-moving storms which may produce occasional lightning over dry fuels. While some risk of dry thunder likely exists given minimal wetting rain potential, storm coverage appears too low to warrant IsoDryT probabilities. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2022 14:37:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT