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Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191443 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt, respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent a blend of the classifications. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory and close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

A Fire Prevention Order was put in place on July 13th restrict public entry, recreation and unnecessary traffic near the fire.  See full Order and News Release in Closures section.   Settlement Canyon is open to Camp Wapiti.  A pre-evacuation order remains in place for Ophir Canyon Residents. The fire is located 5 miles south of Tooele and 1 mile east of Stockton, Utah.   It is burning east of the Salt Lake Valley, 12 miles southwest of Herriman, and 13 miles northwest of Eagle Mountain. It is burning in steep, rugged terrain through timber, brush, tall grass, and a mix of conifer and juniper. The fire started on the afternoon of July 9, 2022, and was determined to be human-caused. The following were damaged: Stockton water treatment plant which included propane tanks, solar panels, and generator, multiple flatbed trailers, sheds, and two con-ex boxes. Great Basin Team 5 will turn the Jacob City Fire over to a local Type 4 team at 6 pm today. 

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 14:39:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191439 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 39(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 115.5W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 115.5 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle will diminish along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of Estelle was located near 19.0, -115.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI

Acres: 200Containment: 90%Cause: Unknown On Sunday, July 17th 2022 at 11:40 am, Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to investigate a large smoke column in Trinity County, TX Southeast of the town of Lovelady, TX. Firefighters arrived on scene to find moderate to high fire activity burning in a young pine plantation threatening 5 homes and multiple outbuildings. Air assists including 3 small engine air tankers and 1 type I helicopter were  successful in performing water drops on highly active portions of the fire, assisting dozer crews in increasing containment. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with Trinity, Groveton, Pennington, Friday, and Lovelady Volunteer Fire

Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson is seeking a drought disaster declaration for the entire state. He mentions the U.S. Drought Monitor’s July 14 release and the expected above average temperatures and little chance of precipitation over the next eight to 14 days. Farmers were not seeing the hay growth that they need for their livestock. Row crops needed irrigation, adding to farmers’ costs and stressing irrigation equipment. The fire danger was also high with 53 of the state’s 75 counties enacting burn bans. A military exercise sparked a wildfire that burned 20 acres in Sebastian County. KFSM-TV CBS 5 Fort Smith (Ark.), July 18, 2022

 Resources from Texas A&M Forest Service are responding to a wildfire in northern Erath County. Crews are working in Unified command with Erath County fire department. There are multiple structures threatened and they are being protected at this time. Aircraft, dozers, engines are all working to protect these structures and construct line around the perimeter of the fire. With very hot conditions and low humidity much of the area is extremely dry and is primed for fire starts. Any fires that do start will likely grow quickly and make dangerous conditions for first

 Fire started on July 18, 2022 and is located at 750 Hempel Drive, Copperas Cove, Coryell County, Texas.   Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) has been requested to assistance.  Dozers and engines are assigned to the fire.  TAMFS is working in unified command with local Incident Command.  1 home reported lost, 2 homes received minor to minimal damage, 2 vehicles lost, 1 horse trailer lost. Forward progression has been stopped.  Dozers are constructing containment lines and engines are working directly on the fire. Weather-Heat Advisory in effect through Tuesday.  Southerly winds8-10 mph, relative humidity near

 Crews have completed mop up.  Fire is 100% contained.  Locals to

The 5,989-acre Becky Peak Fire in the Schell Creek Range, about 50 miles north of Ely, Nev., is 100-percent contained. Firefighters are wrapping up rehab and demobilizing resources for deployment elsewhere. Firefighters will continue to patrol the fire area for the next several days. The human-caused fire was first reported shortly before 11 a.m., Saturday, July

The Jellison Fire was reported the evening of July 12. Fire is burning in steep, hard-to-access terrain on the east end of the Little Belt Mountains approximately 1.5 miles north of Jellison Place Campground.  As of July 18, the fire is in patrol status and 100%

WW 0473 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0473 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 473 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 181745Z - 190200Z
0-190200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 473 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut District Of Columbia Northern Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a corridor from northern Virginia into southeast New York. The stronger cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles south southeast of Elkins WV to 25 miles east of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST ND...NORTHERN MN...WESTERN UPPER MI...CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night over portions of the Upper Midwest into parts of Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough will move from the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday into Tuesday night. In conjunction with this trough, a surface low will deepen and move from northern MN toward Lake Superior, as an attendant cold front sweeps through the northern and central Great Plains. Downstream, a an upper trough will gradually move eastward across the Northeast and New England, while a weaker upper trough will move from the southern Appalachians toward the Carolinas. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will persist from the Southwest into the southern Plains. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... One or more storm clusters may be ongoing Tuesday morning from northeast ND into northern MN, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and/or damaging wind early in the forecast period. This convection will likely leave a remnant outflow boundary somewhere over northern MN by late morning into the afternoon. Moderate destabilization is expected during the afternoon along/south of any outflow boundary and along/east of the cold front. Rather strong midlevel flow associated with the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable severe thunderstorm environment across the region by mid/late afternoon. Despite having a seasonably strong synoptic system moving into the region, 12Z guidance continues to be relatively muted in terms of robust storm development along the cold front through much of the day, likely due to the presence of an initially strong capping inversion across the warm sector, and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lag behind the front. Redevelopment of storms during the afternoon appears most likely near/north of the remnant outflow boundary across northern MN, with more isolated development possible southward along the cold front into parts of WI and upper MI by early evening. The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Northern New England... A notable midlevel shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough is forecast to move across northern New England during the day on Tuesday. Low-level flow will become veered as a surface low departs the region during the morning, but residual low-level moisture will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) in conjunction with peak heating. Midlevel drying and weak surface convergence may limit storm coverage across the region, but moderate midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will support the potential for isolated cells/clusters capable of locally damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. ...Southeast CO into the southern High Plains... Convection is expected to develop across the higher terrain of central/southern CO and northern NM during the afternoon. As this convection spreads into the increasingly hot lower elevations, strong to locally severe outflow gusts will be possible. Isolated high-based storms with gusty winds also cannot be ruled out near a weak front across the OK/TX Panhandles, though this scenario remains too uncertain for wind probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 07/18/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Estelle, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
Baja California.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico late this week.
Some slow development is possible after that time while the system
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat will be for destructive, severe gusts and hail today into this evening, from northeastern Montana to northern North Dakota. ...Synopsis... A Four Corners upper ridge will continue to dominate the upper-level flow regime for today with broad troughing over the greater Great Lakes region. A pair of more notable embedded perturbations, one over the Great Lakes with a second approaching the northern Rockies, will drive severe weather chances for this afternoon and into tonight across the northern Great Plains as well as over the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. ...Northern Plains... The eastward progression of a compact upper-level perturbation across the northern Rockies is apparent in mid-morning water vapor imagery. Ahead of this feature, surface pressure falls are noted across eastern MT and the Dakotas in recent surface observations, and the subsequent mass response is bolstering low-level moisture content with dewpoints increasing into the upper 60s and low 70s. Consequently, a broad warm frontal zone is becoming more apparent across ND and southern Canada. Lift ahead of the wave coupled with ascent along an advancing cold front should support thunderstorm development by late afternoon across eastern MT. Initially discrete cells will mature in an environment with somewhat marginal instability, but elongated hodographs and deep, well-mixed boundary layers that will support organized convection with a severe wind threat, including the potential for significant gusts. Convection will likely intensify as it continues eastward into the Dakotas where boundary-layer moisture will be richer. The best organized severe threat will likely be found in the vicinity of the triple point across northeast MT into northwest ND where lift will locally be maximized. Upscale growth into one or more segments into the late evening/overnight hours is possible across northern ND along a diffuse warm frontal zone. To the east, a strengthening low-level jet will augment warm advection over the frontal zone and support thunderstorm development across northwest to northern MN this evening. Storms will likely propagate to the east/southeast along the frontal zone and within a strong northwesterly flow regime. While storm mode is uncertain, a hail/wind threat appears probable across northern MN into northern lower MI through the overnight hours. ...Mid-Atlantic and New England... Latest analysis shows a surface low gradually deepening across Lake Eerie. This feature will continue to deepen through the day amid increasing mid and upper-level flow. A trailing surface trough should act as the impetus of thunderstorm development from New England into the southern Appalachians as it migrates east through the day. Mid-morning satellite imagery reveals extensive cloud cover across much of the New England region. This cloud cover was also sampled in regional 12 UTC soundings, which featured high column saturation and poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Despite the meager thermodynamic profile, boundary-layer moisture across the region is unseasonably high (surface dewpoints near or above the 90th percentile for mid-July were noted in morning observations). Because of this, any daytime heating that can occur will likely yield adequate buoyancy to support thunderstorm development this afternoon. The degree of destabilization across the New England region is questionable given the extensive cloud cover; however, the increasing flow across the region will boost low-level SRH along a broad warm frontal zone over the region. This will support the potential for not only damaging winds, but a few weak tornadoes as well. To the south across the Mid-Atlantic, patchy cloud cover is allowing for temperatures to quickly warm into the low to mid 80s. Regional VWPs already show winds in the lowest few kilometers increasing to 30 knots, with further strengthening expected through the day. Thunderstorms developing along the front will support a more robust severe wind threat compared to locations further north where instability is more questionable. While low-level hodographs may not feature as much curvature as areas to the north, forecast soundings feature enough low-level veering to support at least a low-end tornado concern. ...Lower Appalachians to Mid-South... A trailing surface trough/cold front draped across the lower Appalachians and into the mid-MS River Valley will support thunderstorm development through the afternoon. While deep-layer flow is meager (recent effective shear estimates near 20-25 knots were noted on recent ACARs soundings), favorable buoyancy should compensate for this weakness and support a damaging wind threat through the afternoon. Latest guidance continues to suggest a cluster of storms across northern MS may consolidate into a more cohesive, southward-propagating convective line that could pose a more widespread damaging wind threat, though confidence this potential remains low given the weak environment flow. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/18/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO... The forecast remains on track without changes. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 07/18/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022/ ...Synopsis... On the northwestern periphery of the strong mid-level anticyclone, a compact and deep upper low will move quickly eastward across the Northwest and northern Rockies today. Flattening the ridge as it passes, strong mid-level westerlies will overspread the northern Great Basin and Rockies, supporting critical fire weather concerns. A strong cold front may also trigger isolated thunderstorms, some dry, across portions of Montana and Wyoming. ...Eastern Idaho and northern Great Basin... With the passage of the strong upper low to the north, a belt of 40-60 kt mid-level flow should bolster low-level surface winds from northern Nevada eastward into portions of central and eastern Idaho. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures should easily support widespread RH below 15% through the afternoon. The strongest winds, and most likely corridor for sustained critical conditions, should remains across eastern Idaho. However, given the strong flow aloft, locally critical conditions will be possible for a few hours in the lee of the Sierra as well. ...Central High Plains... East of the main upper low, very warm temperatures and increasing westerly flow should favor the development of a lee trough across eastern Wyoming and the central High Plains. West/southwest winds near the higher terrain should reach 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts possible. Widespread RH below 20%, gusty winds, and very dry fuels should support elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon and early evening. ...Thunderstorms... Plentiful heating ahead of strong height falls associated with the deep upper low should result in isolated thunderstorms across the northern and central Rockies this afternoon. With these high-based and relatively fast moving storms, wetting rain potential appears low. A few dry strikes are possible, along with gusty and erratic winds with stronger downdrafts. However, the coverage of dry lightning should remain below the threshold for IsoDryT conditions given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more