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Drought prompted officials in Comal and Guadalupe counties to enact burn bans. New Braunfels Herald-Zeitung (Texas), June 13, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 14 15:37:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1164 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL GA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Areas affected...portions of east-central GA into central/southern SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141521Z - 141615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts are possible into early afternoon across portions of central/southern SC and eastern GA. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are developing late this morning in a very moist and unstable environment in the vicinity of an outflow boundary from overnight convection. Regional 12z RAOBs and forecast soundings, in addition to recent mesoanalysis data, indicate some inhibition is still likely impacting the MCD area, but with continued heating this should erode over the next 1-2 hours. Surface dewpoints are generally in the 73-77 F range, supporting a corridor of strong MLCAPE with southward extent despite modest midlevel lapse rates. This strong instability will support initially robust thunderstorm updrafts. However, the region will remain under very weak vertical shear on the eastern periphery of the 500 mb ridge axis/upper anticyclone. This will ultimately limit longevity of intense updrafts and organized cells. However, if a strong enough cold pool can be generated, some forward propagation and organization of thunderstorm clusters could occur, with an attendant increase for locally damaging gusts. While a watch is not expected in the short-term, convective trends will be monitored. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 33858016 33298009 32938025 32638065 32428125 32358190 32348256 32508322 32838362 33228376 33598357 33808334 34008310 34098298 34208261 34318135 34318071 34198032 33858016 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jun 2022 14:59:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jun 2022 15:23:55 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 752 WTPZ42 KNHC 141458 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection. Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical storm of the season. The environment near Blas looks conducive for further intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm waters and generally light shear. However, increased northeasterly shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level anticyclone over Mexico. Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity forecast matches that trend. Weakening should commence by the end of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters. Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico. The tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a ridge building over Mexico. This motion should take the system gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Similar to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast. Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Bucci

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 141457 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 1 5( 6) 24(30) 36(66) 9(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 100W 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ACAPULCO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 2(27) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BUCCI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 141457 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 102.1W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 102.1 West. Blas is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little movement is expected today, follow by a more steady motion toward the west-northwest through mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Blas could become a hurricane late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the coast of southwestern Mexico late today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake/Bucci

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 the center of Blas was located near 13.9, -102.1 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 141456 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 102.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BUCCI

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0822 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.... CORRECTED FOR NDFD/WEB GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible within the northern Red River Valley vicinity, portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley. ...ND/MN... A long-lived cluster of intense thunderstorms is tracking northeastward across eastern ND. These storms are expected to persist and move into Saskatchewan by late morning. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will remain possible in these areas. Please refer to WW 366 and MCD 1162 for further details. ...Mid-Atlantic... Multiple severe MCSs from last night have diminished, with the remnant light precipitation and MCVs noted over WV/western VA/western NC. This activity will track into a very moist and potentially unstable air mass from SC into MD, where at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected. Any storms that can become robust will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. However, model guidance does not provide much confidence in the details of the scenario this afternoon. ...NE/IA/MN... A cold front is sagging southeastward across parts of the central Dakotas. This boundary is expected to stall over NE/IA, providing a focus for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Initial activity will likely be supercellular, but will move northward into the cooler boundary layer air and be slightly elevated. Nevertheless, large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. By mid-evening, storms are expected to be rather widespread along the boundary, with an increasing risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Dean.. 06/14/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141154
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two-E, located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico.

Off the coast of Central America:
Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Central America
associated with a trough of low pressure have become better
organized overnight. Further development of this system is possible
while it drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of
the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Two-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Two-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Bucci

As extreme drought worsens in the Corpus Christi area, Lake Corpus Christi and Choke Canyon were at 42% of capacity, down from 43.7% a week ago. The trigger for stage 1 water restrictions is 40%. The city manager said that they plan to declare stage 1 restrictions at the June 14 city council meeting. City officials were actively looking for a secondary water source and were concerned about drought. The city manager urged the public to start practicing water conservation as stage 1 restrictions neared. KIII-TV3 South Texas (Corpus Christi, Texas), June 13, 2022

Drought in Nebraska continued to affect pastures and wheat. Pastures were still behind in production and probably will not be able to catch up after a cold, dry spring. Brownfield Online (Jefferson City, Mo.), June 13, 2022

Communities in California’s San Gabriel Mountains were ordered to evacuate ahead of the Sheep Fire, which began on June 11 in the Angeles National Forest. The blaze continued to burn in dense vegetation and steep terrain amid erratic winds. Through the morning of June 13, the fire consumed 990 acres. Reuters (New York), June 13, 2022

More wildlife was making its way into local neighborhoods for the food and water, according to local Texas game wardens. A bobcat was seen on a trail cam in the backyard of a Kings Crossing neighborhood on Corpus Christi’s South Side. People were encouraged to put out water for wildlife. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), June 13, 2022

The Skates Fire is located 13 miles northeast of Silver City on the Gila National Forest. Signal Peak Lookout reported the fire Friday at 4:11 p.m. There are no evacuations currently associated with the

At the end of May, the beef cow slaughter for the year-to-date was 15% higher compared to last year. Range and pasture conditions nationally remained at the worst level ever for this time of year, although drought has eased in some areas, allowing for pasture conditions to improve. Cooler temperatures in northern areas, along with skimpy fertilizer use, were contributing to delayed and reduced pasture and hay production. In recent weeks, the slaughter data compared to last year has been increasing as limited pasture and hay production has become more apparent. Drought in 2021 resulted in a 9% increase in the beef cow slaughter, compared to the previous year, and a net culling of 11.6%. Drought hastened herd liquidation in 2021, leading to a 2.33% reduction in the beef cow herd in 2021. Drovers Cattle Network (Lenexa, Kan.), June 13, 2022

The Cerro Bandera Fire is burning on private land within the National Park Service El Malpais National Monument boundaries near Highway 53 in Cibola County. The fire was first reported by staff at the Cibola National Forest's Oso Ridge Lookout on June 9, 2022 at approximately 11:00 a.m. The fire is burning in dry grass and pinon-juniper type fuels. Numerous personnel from the Forestry Division, Cibola County, USDA Forest Service, and National Parks Service are on the scene with support from firefighting aircraft. The cause of the fire is under investigation. IR flight was run last night and our current acreage is 939 acres. No increase of acres from yesterdays mapped acres. At this time we are still showing 25% containment, and forward progress has been stopped.Suppression efforts throughout the fire will continue with mop up and securing of fire

The Double Fire was reported at 4:13 p.m. on June 12. It is predicted that the Double Fire and Haywire Fire, a fire that originated 7.5 miles northwest of Doney Park, will merge.Current resources: Part of the Haywire Fire resources responding.Closures: The Coconino National Forest has closed nearly the entire northern portion of the forest from Interstate 40 toward the north. View the Closure Order and map here. Additionally, Arizona Department of Transportation has closed a portion of Highway 89, which restricts vehicles from traveling north and south in the area of the fire. Check www.az511.com for status

The City of Alice entered stage 1 of its drought contingency plan on June 10 as the level of Lake Corpus Christi dropped below 88 feet. The public is asked to voluntarily conserve 10%. Two other communities, Mathis and Beeville, also draw water from Lake Corpus Christi. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), June 12, 2022