Aggregator

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 171445 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Blas has become a little better organized this morning. Microwave data from overnight showed an eye feature and numerous curved bands, especially south of the center. Since then, deep convection has been increasing and has become a bit more symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 77 to 90 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 80 kt based on that data. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 12 kt. Blas is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S. The hurricane is expected to slow down on Saturday and turn westward on Sunday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the lighter low-level flow. This slow westward motion is forecast to continue through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Blas is currently in favorable conditions for strengthening, but that is not expected to last much longer. The hurricane should cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today and move over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. In addition, Blas will be moving into an environment of increasingly more stable and dry air. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow post-tropical system in a few days. The NHC intensity is forecast is a touch higher than the previous one, due to the slightly stronger initial intensity. While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. These swells are expected to spread to parts of the southern Baja California peninsula later today and continue through the weekend. These conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 171443 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 28 4(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 34 95 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 35 22(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ISLA SOCORRO 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 2 8(10) 25(35) 12(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 2 4( 6) 13(19) 13(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Jun 2022 14:43:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jun 2022 15:22:32 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 171443 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 ...BLAS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 109.0W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west are expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later today and continue during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next day or so. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California later today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BLAS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 the center of Blas was located near 17.8, -109.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 171442 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 109.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

WW 383 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 171420Z - 171900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far southeast Indiana Eastern Kentucky Far southern Ohio * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1020 AM until 300 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Broken thunderstorms along eastward-moving outflow may consolidate as it spreads across mainly eastern Kentucky through early afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Cincinnati OH to 45 miles southwest of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...WW 382... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Grams Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected this morning across the lower Ohio Valley and this afternoon/evening from the southern Appalachians to southern Virginia, the Carolinas, and Georgia. More isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the southern/eastern New England, the northern High Plains, and the northern Rockies. ...Lower OH Valley this morning to the Carolinas this afternoon... An overnight MCS continues to move generally east-southeastward this morning toward southern IN and northern KY. The convection is being maintained by a warm/moist boundary layer where overnight temperatures remained near 80 F with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, beneath moderately steep midlevel lapse rates. Some discrete propagation of the MCS has been observed as a result of somewhat modest low-midlevel shear on the southern edge of the stronger mid-upper flow. However, the favorable thermodynamic environment will maintain a pronounced cold pool and the continued potential for occasional wind damage through the morning. The threat for damaging gusts will also continue into the afternoon/evening as the low levels destabilize, supporting renewed storm development along the leading edge of the cold pool into southern VA and the Carolinas. ...New England today... As a midlevel trough digs southeastward from ON/QC, a surface cold front will move eastward across New England and southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Long, mostly straight hodographs, with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt, are expected today across southern New England into ME. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and forcing for ascent will be modest, which suggests that updrafts will not be particularly robust. A few storms with strong/damaging gusts may occur today, but the threat for more widespread severe storms appears rather low. ...Northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening... West of the midlevel ridge over the Plains and east of a deep trough near the Pacific coast, lee trough development is expected across the High Plains. This trough could focus isolated, high-based thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening immediately east of the higher terrain from eastern WY northward into MT. A very warm elevated mixed layer will tend to cap the more moist boundary layer east farther east of the lee trough and along a warm front into eastern MT. This, combined with largely meridional flow aloft, will keep convection close to the trough and higher terrain. Given the very steep low-midlevel lapse rates, a few storms with strong-severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Marsh.. 06/17/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Blas, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southwest coast
of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Three-E, located a couple hundred of
miles south-southwest of the coast of El Salvador.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Three-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Three-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

 On June 14, 2022, Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) was requested for assistance for a wildfire located in Roberts County approximately 15 miles SSE of Spearman just south of county road 281 in steep canyon topography which caused access issues for firefighters. Initially, the fire had started on the night of June 12, from a lightning strike. Miami Volunteer Fire Dept. and Perryton Fire Department were on scene. With consistently windy days, the fire had continued to jump containment. Upon arrival on June 14, TAMFS had worked in unified command with Miami Volunteer Fire Dept. Heavy equipment and engines were utilized on both flanks. The fire had spread rapidly through the canyon bottom, but forward progression was stopped at FM 281. No structures were lost or threatened and fire crews continue to monitor the fire and mop up any areas were hot spots (concentrated areas of heat) are found close to containment

The Graham Fire started on June 9, 2022 at approximately 1800 hours in the Ishi Wilderness Area on the Lassen National Forest.  The fire is burning in a very remote area that is only accessible by foot or aircraft.  There are 7 Hotshot Handcrews and 10 Smoke Jumpers working on the fire.  As of June 11 at 1800 hours the fire is 153 acres in size and 15%

New fire restrictions for parts of Colorado’s Front Range and Western Slope have been enacted as the fire danger increases. Boulder County implemented Stage 1 fire restrictions for unincorporated western parts of the county. Clear Creek County has taken a similar action, and Stage 1 restrictions also took effect in Ouray, San Miguel and Montrose counties. The Bureau of Land Management’s Gunnison and Uncompahgre field offices enacted Stage 1 restrictions as well, affecting Delta, Gunnison, Montrose, Ouray, San Juan, San Miguel and portions of Hinsdale and Saguache counties. The Denver Post (Colo.), June 15, 2022

Drought, heat and high winds in the Southern Plains has killed many acres of cotton in the past week. The cotton has been blown out of the ground on many farms, stated farm broadcaster Tony St. James. The wheat has not fared so well either. Yields were mostly in the six to ten bushel per acre range, but some were up to 20 bushels. The yield is so low that in other years, it may not have even been harvested, but this year with prices being so high, farmers will harvest. RFD TV (Nashville, Tenn.), June 16, 2022

 Fire started on June 13th at approximately 4 pm.  Fire located north of Ft. Stockton, Pecos County Texas near Gomez Rd.  Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) resources were requested to assistance with fire suppression.  TAMFS Incident Command spoke with landowner and no mechanized was used.  Engines and handline utilized.  Area of concern is underground spring and thick vegetation in area of spring.  Fire was producing short range

Contra Costa Water District’s Board of Directors approved a temporary drought surcharge as part of its Drought Management Program. The 15% surcharge will take effect July 1 to promote conservation and to recoup costs related to the ongoing drought. The Drought Management Program also offers a credit for households using 200 gallons per day or less. East County Today (Antioch, Calif.), June 16, 2022

Wednesday, June 15The Menkhaven Fire was declared contained at 17:13 on June 8th. Fire crews patrolling the fire are still finding interior pockets of heat that may be occasionally producing visible smoke. This is normal under these circumstances. Dangerous cliff bands are extremely difficult to work in, let alone safely extinguish hot spots that firefighters may not be able to reach. Crews will continue to patrol and monitor the fire on an as-needed basis. High wind days are of particular concern to us. A substantial amount of rain is needed to fully extinguish the Menkhaven Fire. Until that happens, it is likely that hotspots will continue to be detected and occasionally produce smoke that can be seen from various points along Highway 17 or the Forest roads on top. Recently, crews have photo documented the natural recovery process that begins immediately after a fire. We invite you to take a look at the recent photos that show new growth in the midst of the fire’s footprint. This...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jun 2022 14:38:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:24:00 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 161437 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 52(57) 16(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 12(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 13(23) 3(26) 1(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 3(19) 1(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 161437 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The satellite presentation of Blas in geostationary imagery has not changed much this morning with the center embedded within the northern portion of the central dense overcast. Recent microwave imagery, however, shows that there has been some additional degradation of the inner-core due to moderate east-northeasterly shear. There is a bit more uncertainty than normal in the initial intensity of the hurricane as the subjective Dvorak estimates are on the higher end at 77 and 90 kt, while objective satellite estimates from the ADT and SATCON are lower at 70 and 64 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is kept near a consensus of these estimates at 75 kt. Although the shear is forecast to relax slightly during the next 12-24 hours, the recent degradation of the inner core will likely prevent any further intensification. Therefore, little change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning. By 36 hours, Blas is forecast to cross the 26 degree Celsius isotherm which should commence the weakening process. Steady weakening is then anticipated during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and ICON consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed over the next 48-72 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the lower-level tradewind flow. There is very little cross-track spread among the various dynamical models, but there is some along-track or speed differences with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS much faster than the ECMWF. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory, closer to the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, but additional adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those areas through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.9N 104.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 161436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 ...BLAS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...LARGE SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 104.8W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 104.8 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, but steady weakening is expected to begin Friday night and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California by late Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown