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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected this morning across the lower Ohio Valley and this afternoon/evening from the southern Appalachians to southern Virginia, the Carolinas, and Georgia. More isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the southern/eastern New England, the northern High Plains, and the northern Rockies. ...Lower OH Valley this morning to the Carolinas this afternoon... An overnight MCS continues to move generally east-southeastward this morning toward southern IN and northern KY. The convection is being maintained by a warm/moist boundary layer where overnight temperatures remained near 80 F with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, beneath moderately steep midlevel lapse rates. Some discrete propagation of the MCS has been observed as a result of somewhat modest low-midlevel shear on the southern edge of the stronger mid-upper flow. However, the favorable thermodynamic environment will maintain a pronounced cold pool and the continued potential for occasional wind damage through the morning. The threat for damaging gusts will also continue into the afternoon/evening as the low levels destabilize, supporting renewed storm development along the leading edge of the cold pool into southern VA and the Carolinas. ...New England today... As a midlevel trough digs southeastward from ON/QC, a surface cold front will move eastward across New England and southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Long, mostly straight hodographs, with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt, are expected today across southern New England into ME. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and forcing for ascent will be modest, which suggests that updrafts will not be particularly robust. A few storms with strong/damaging gusts may occur today, but the threat for more widespread severe storms appears rather low. ...Northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening... West of the midlevel ridge over the Plains and east of a deep trough near the Pacific coast, lee trough development is expected across the High Plains. This trough could focus isolated, high-based thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening immediately east of the higher terrain from eastern WY northward into MT. A very warm elevated mixed layer will tend to cap the more moist boundary layer east farther east of the lee trough and along a warm front into eastern MT. This, combined with largely meridional flow aloft, will keep convection close to the trough and higher terrain. Given the very steep low-midlevel lapse rates, a few storms with strong-severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Marsh.. 06/17/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 17 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Blas, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southwest coast
of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Three-E, located a couple hundred of
miles south-southwest of the coast of El Salvador.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Three-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Three-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

 On June 14, 2022, Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) was requested for assistance for a wildfire located in Roberts County approximately 15 miles SSE of Spearman just south of county road 281 in steep canyon topography which caused access issues for firefighters. Initially, the fire had started on the night of June 12, from a lightning strike. Miami Volunteer Fire Dept. and Perryton Fire Department were on scene. With consistently windy days, the fire had continued to jump containment. Upon arrival on June 14, TAMFS had worked in unified command with Miami Volunteer Fire Dept. Heavy equipment and engines were utilized on both flanks. The fire had spread rapidly through the canyon bottom, but forward progression was stopped at FM 281. No structures were lost or threatened and fire crews continue to monitor the fire and mop up any areas were hot spots (concentrated areas of heat) are found close to containment

The Graham Fire started on June 9, 2022 at approximately 1800 hours in the Ishi Wilderness Area on the Lassen National Forest.  The fire is burning in a very remote area that is only accessible by foot or aircraft.  There are 7 Hotshot Handcrews and 10 Smoke Jumpers working on the fire.  As of June 11 at 1800 hours the fire is 153 acres in size and 15%

New fire restrictions for parts of Colorado’s Front Range and Western Slope have been enacted as the fire danger increases. Boulder County implemented Stage 1 fire restrictions for unincorporated western parts of the county. Clear Creek County has taken a similar action, and Stage 1 restrictions also took effect in Ouray, San Miguel and Montrose counties. The Bureau of Land Management’s Gunnison and Uncompahgre field offices enacted Stage 1 restrictions as well, affecting Delta, Gunnison, Montrose, Ouray, San Juan, San Miguel and portions of Hinsdale and Saguache counties. The Denver Post (Colo.), June 15, 2022

Drought, heat and high winds in the Southern Plains has killed many acres of cotton in the past week. The cotton has been blown out of the ground on many farms, stated farm broadcaster Tony St. James. The wheat has not fared so well either. Yields were mostly in the six to ten bushel per acre range, but some were up to 20 bushels. The yield is so low that in other years, it may not have even been harvested, but this year with prices being so high, farmers will harvest. RFD TV (Nashville, Tenn.), June 16, 2022

 Fire started on June 13th at approximately 4 pm.  Fire located north of Ft. Stockton, Pecos County Texas near Gomez Rd.  Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) resources were requested to assistance with fire suppression.  TAMFS Incident Command spoke with landowner and no mechanized was used.  Engines and handline utilized.  Area of concern is underground spring and thick vegetation in area of spring.  Fire was producing short range

Contra Costa Water District’s Board of Directors approved a temporary drought surcharge as part of its Drought Management Program. The 15% surcharge will take effect July 1 to promote conservation and to recoup costs related to the ongoing drought. The Drought Management Program also offers a credit for households using 200 gallons per day or less. East County Today (Antioch, Calif.), June 16, 2022

Wednesday, June 15The Menkhaven Fire was declared contained at 17:13 on June 8th. Fire crews patrolling the fire are still finding interior pockets of heat that may be occasionally producing visible smoke. This is normal under these circumstances. Dangerous cliff bands are extremely difficult to work in, let alone safely extinguish hot spots that firefighters may not be able to reach. Crews will continue to patrol and monitor the fire on an as-needed basis. High wind days are of particular concern to us. A substantial amount of rain is needed to fully extinguish the Menkhaven Fire. Until that happens, it is likely that hotspots will continue to be detected and occasionally produce smoke that can be seen from various points along Highway 17 or the Forest roads on top. Recently, crews have photo documented the natural recovery process that begins immediately after a fire. We invite you to take a look at the recent photos that show new growth in the midst of the fire’s footprint. This...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jun 2022 14:38:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:24:00 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 161437 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 52(57) 16(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 12(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 13(23) 3(26) 1(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 3(19) 1(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 161437 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 The satellite presentation of Blas in geostationary imagery has not changed much this morning with the center embedded within the northern portion of the central dense overcast. Recent microwave imagery, however, shows that there has been some additional degradation of the inner-core due to moderate east-northeasterly shear. There is a bit more uncertainty than normal in the initial intensity of the hurricane as the subjective Dvorak estimates are on the higher end at 77 and 90 kt, while objective satellite estimates from the ADT and SATCON are lower at 70 and 64 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is kept near a consensus of these estimates at 75 kt. Although the shear is forecast to relax slightly during the next 12-24 hours, the recent degradation of the inner core will likely prevent any further intensification. Therefore, little change in strength is anticipated through tomorrow morning. By 36 hours, Blas is forecast to cross the 26 degree Celsius isotherm which should commence the weakening process. Steady weakening is then anticipated during the remainder of the forecast period while Blas moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity prediction is in best agreement with the LGEM model and ICON consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane should continue to steer the cyclone west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed over the next 48-72 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the lower-level tradewind flow. There is very little cross-track spread among the various dynamical models, but there is some along-track or speed differences with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS much faster than the ECMWF. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory, closer to the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, but additional adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those areas through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.9N 104.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 161436 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 ...BLAS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...LARGE SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 104.8W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 104.8 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours, but steady weakening is expected to begin Friday night and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas will continue to affect the southwest coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. The swells are forecast to spread to portions of the southern coast of Baja California by late Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...BLAS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...LARGE SWELLS CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 the center of Blas was located near 15.9, -104.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 161436 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC THU JUN 16 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.8W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.8W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 16 13:14:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 16 13:14:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon/evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes can be expected. Strong/severe thunderstorms with hail/wind will also develop across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley region. Isolated strong storms will also develop across the Gulf Coast states. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge extending from TN into New England. This ridge will rapidly shift eastward today as a progressive upper low over northwest Ontario approaches, resulting in large scale forcing and strengthening winds aloft overspreading the Northeast states. A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is present over much of NY/PA, where daytime highs well into the 80s and dewpoints near 70F will yield MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and little capping inversion. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form along an approaching cold front over northeast OH into western NY, while other isolated cells intensify in the warm sector across parts of NY/PA. Low-level winds are not forecast to be particularly strong, but favorable deep-layer shear and degree of instability suggest that discrete supercells will be possible, capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward during the afternoon/evening across the ENH risk area, with upscale growth into short bowing segments expected. Damaging winds and hail would be the primary threats. ...MO/IL Vicinity... As the aforementioned upper low shifts eastward into the Great Lakes region, a cold front will sag southward into the mid MS and OH valleys. Weak forcing aloft is expected to limit convective development during the day. However, a strengthening low-level jet will likely contribute to scattered thunderstorms by mid-evening along and just north of the front. This activity will build southeastward through the evening with a large hail and damaging wind threat. ...Gulf Coast States... Similar to yesterday, westward-moving afternoon thunderstorms are expected from the FL Panhandle westward into parts of LA/MS. Hot and humid conditions with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and large CAPE values will promote damaging wind gusts in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Mosier.. 06/16/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Blas, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southwest coast
of Mexico.

Off the coast of Central America:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some with an area of
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts
of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become a bit more favorable over the next day or two and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days.
This system is forecast to drift erratically through the weekend but
begin a more pronounced westward motion by early next week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across
portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin