Aggregator

For the second straight year, no Highland Lakes water will be available for Lower Colorado River Authority interruptible water customers in the Gulf Coast, Lakeside and Pierce Ranch agricultural operations in Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda counties. “The majority of the Hill Country has only received between 5 and 10 inches of rain since October, well below average, and the amount of water flowing into the Highland Lakes from January through June is the lowest on record for that six-month period,” according to the LCRA executive vice president. KVUE News Online (Austin, Texas), July 2, 2022

Water restrictions in Storm Lake became mandatory on July 1 due to high water demand during a period of drought. The neighboring communities of Lakeside, Lake Creek, Truesdale, and Casino Beach must also abide by the same rules because they receive water from Storm Lake. KTIV-TV NBC 4 (Sioux City, Iowa), July 1, 2022

The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report showed June feedlot inventories of 11.846 million head, 101.2 percent of one year ago. This is a record level of June feedlot cattle since the data series began in 1996. Of the top four cattle feeding states, the number of cattle in feedlots compared to the previous year was up 3% in Texas, 4% in Nebraska, down 1% in Kansas and up 1% in Colorado. These four states have 76.4% of the total feedlot inventories. Feedlot numbers are decreasing seasonally with the June 1 level lower for the fourth straight month from the record February feedlot inventory of 12.199 million head. Drought has likely been a significant factor in the higher heifer slaughter in 2021 and 2022. Drovers Cattle Network (Lenexa, Kan.), June 28, 2022

Flash drought developed in east central, southern and northwest Illinois. Most of the corn in the drought-affected area, and fields that were planted later or have compacted or light-textured soils elsewhere displayed leaf curling in the afternoon, and many were beginning to curl in the mornings. Corn and soybeans were shorter than they might have been due to difficulty in taking up enough water to fully expand cells. Leaf area increases have also been slowed, with soybeans having smaller leaves, and corn in some fields not adding leaf stages as quickly as growing degree accumulations predict. AgFax (Brandon, Miss.), June 27, 2022

River flows in eastern Massachusetts have gotten quite low, including the Neponset River in Norwood, and the Ipswich River and the Charles River at Waltham. The North Nashua in Fitchburg and the Weir River in Hingham were at record low levels for this date. Roughly half of the state's local water districts have begun enacting restrictions. Fire departments have noticed that fires are burning deeper than usual underground, requiring more water to extinguish the fires. WCVB-TV ABC 5 Boston (Mass.), July 1, 2022

Residents of Springfield were urged to voluntarily conserve water through June 29 as demand has strained the system. The public was discouraged from washing vehicles, watering lawns, filling swimming pools and any other unnecessary water use. WSMV-TV News 4 (Nashville, Tenn.), June 26, 2022

Beginning in early April 2022, a planned ignition of slash piles was conducted on the Dixie National Forest. These piles were the result of a Stewardship Timber Sale (in partnership with the Mule Deer Foundation) to improve wildlife habitat, promote aspen regeneration, and reduce fuel accumulations. Crews conducted the ignition in 2-4 feet of snow when conditions were ideal to burn.  To ensure objectives of the project were met, the piles were monitored while residual fuels were consumed. Crews continued to monitor the piles throughout the months of April, May, and June, frequently and as road conditions allowed. Increased monitoring occurred during periods of sustained hot, dry, and windy weather. Fire personnel assessed the burn on June 15 and developed a plan for mop-up of residual smokes. On June 16 and 17, fire personnel conducted an extensive and thorough mop-up, including gridding the interior and perimeter of the fire, finding no heat or visible smoke.    An initial...

Highlights: The first objective of any fire operation is public and firefighter safety; this is ongoing after the fire is contained or even extinguished. In an effort to reduce the secondary damage caused by erosion the primary focus is to repair those activities that were used in containing the fire by repairing hand and dozer lines, installing water diversion, and restoring the natural contours. This activity is called suppression repair and it is the current focus on the Black Fire. Containment versus Completion: In order to achieve containment, it is necessary to utilize man made barriers, natural barriers and even previously burned areas to ensure no progression of the fire. The remaining uncontained side of the fire to the south is within a dense area of standing dead trees from the 2013 Silver Fire that is very steep and difficult to traverse. These hazardous conditions, along with adverse weather, have prevented firefighters from accessing this area to confirm any additional...

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 2 17:18:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN VA...EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...MD...DC...DE...NJ...SOUTHEAST PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Areas affected...Parts of Northern VA...Eastern WV Panhandle...MD...DC...DE...NJ...Southeast PA Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021716Z - 021915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected this afternoon, with an attendant risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Strong heating is underway across much of the Mid Atlantic early this afternoon, though cirrus emanating from convection over WV is limiting insolation across parts of northern VA. Convection is gradually increasing south of the cirrus shield across western VA, while cumulus is gradually increasing across southeast PA, to the north of the VA cirrus shield and south of another cirrus shield across central/eastern PA. Continued destabilization (MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2000 J/kg) will support scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though local minima in storm coverage will be possible where persistent cirrus limits diurnal heating. This region is on the southern fringe of stronger midlevel flow associated with the deep mid/upper-level trough across eastern Canada. Effective shear of 30-40 kt across southeast PA into southern NJ will support the potential for a couple of organized clusters and/or marginal supercells, capable of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Shear will be somewhat weaker into parts of MD/VA/DE, but still sufficient for a few multicell clusters capable of locally damaging wind gusts (especially where stronger heating occurs), and perhaps some isolated hail. Once a definitive uptick in storm coverage/intensity appears imminent, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely across portions of the MCD area. ..Dean/Grams.. 07/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38227926 39747747 40297633 40787487 40867426 39907456 38807527 38237624 37817799 37847894 38227926 Read more

MD 1322 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Areas affected...Northeast PA into parts of southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021645Z - 021845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase this afternoon, accompanied by a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing from northeast PA into southern NY early this afternoon, with some weak midlevel rotation noted with a small cell near Binghamton. Buoyancy is currently modest across the region, but continued diurnal heating/destabilization will support MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg later this afternoon from northeast PA into parts of southern New England. Moderate westerly flow aloft will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for organized convection. As storm coverage increases with time this afternoon, a couple of organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with an attendant risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is probable later this afternoon once a greater coverage of organized storms appears imminent. ..Dean/Grams.. 07/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 42057573 42797350 42937239 42907190 42547184 41727256 41247392 41167488 41197544 41317597 41467612 41767612 42057573 Read more

MD 1322 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Areas affected...Northeast PA into parts of southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021645Z - 021845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase this afternoon, accompanied by a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing from northeast PA into southern NY early this afternoon, with some weak midlevel rotation noted with a small cell near Binghamton. Buoyancy is currently modest across the region, but continued diurnal heating/destabilization will support MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg later this afternoon from northeast PA into parts of southern New England. Moderate westerly flow aloft will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for organized convection. As storm coverage increases with time this afternoon, a couple of organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop, with an attendant risk of locally damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is probable later this afternoon once a greater coverage of organized storms appears imminent. ..Dean/Grams.. 07/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 42057573 42797350 42937239 42907190 42547184 41727256 41247392 41167488 41197544 41317597 41467612 41767612 42057573 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the ongoing Critical area based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus and surface observations. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist across the Intermountain West into the Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface low development across the Great Basin will encourage Elevated dry and windy conditions across much of Nevada into western Utah, with Critical conditions most likely across eastern Nevada to the Utah border. Across the central Rockies into the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorm development is expected given the presence of monsoonal moisture. A couple dry strikes are possible as far west as Oregon, where storms will also be capable of erratic, potentially severe wind gusts (please see the Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details). However, dry thunderstorm highlights have not been added since fuel receptiveness is expected to be mediocre on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are expected across southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic States through early evening. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the northern Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight. ...Southern New England to Mid-Atlantic States... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon along a northeast/southwest-oriented surface cold front from southwest New England into PA and a lee trough extending south-southwest into western VA. Stronger deep-layer shear will be confined to the southern New England to NY portion amid predominant southwesterly flow. Progressively weaker shear will be noted with southern extent into VA, but this will be compensated by larger buoyancy given greater boundary-layer heating with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg. The overall setup will likely foster a mix of transient supercells and multicell clusters spreading towards the coast, before weakening during the early evening. Scattered damaging winds will be the primary threat, with isolated severe hail also possible. ...Northern Great Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon along a modest baroclinic zone and weak surface trough near the MT/ND/SK border area. This initial activity should be higher-based amid MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg as surface dew points mix down into the upper 40s to low 50s. While low-level winds will be weak and the region will remain in close proximity to a low-amplitude mid-level ridge, adequate elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should foster a few supercells. Clustering into a small MCS is likely this evening as storms spread towards greater PW emanating northwest from NE into SD and a southerly low-level jet strengthens in advance of the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. This may yield a persistent, although probably isolated, severe threat into the overnight towards central SD. A mix of large hail and severe wind gusts is anticipated. ...Lower OH Valley to KS/OK... An MCV over northwest MO will drift east to the north of a predominately west/east-oriented baroclinic zone across the Lower OH Valley towards the KS/OK border. While mid-level lapse rates will be modest, robust boundary-layer heating to the south of the composite front/outflow boundaries should foster a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. While background vertical shear will be weak, some enhancement of mid-level westerlies attendant to the MCV should be sufficient for a few multicell clusters. Confidence is low in whether a more organized cluster may develop given the myriad of potential boundary-interaction processes and upscale cold-pool aggregation. A broad cat 1/MRGL mainly for the threat of isolated damaging winds remains warranted. ...Interior Northwest... Increasing large-scale ascent owing to approach of a shortwave trough from the northeast Pacific will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle to yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms across central/eastern OR towards the southern ID Panhandle. Forecast soundings suggest that stronger speed shear will generally be confined to the upper portion of the modest buoyancy profile amid 40s to perhaps low 50s surface dew points. A few discrete cells may acquire transient, mid-level updraft rotation, supporting a threat for marginally severe hail. Otherwise, isolated severe wind gusts should be the main hazard given a well-mixed environment. ...Coastal NC... The expected asymmetrical nature of deep convection associated with TC Colin and weak low-level kinematic fields for tornado potential over land suggest that a weak/brief tornado threat appears negligible. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/02/2022 Read more

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021553 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 20...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA... Corrected Advisory Number SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 86.4W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the Caribbean coast. The government of Costa Rica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the Caribbean coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 86.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day today. A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and that motion should continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to move away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, after which Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.2, -86.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

 On 7/1/2022 Texas A&M Forest Service responded to a request for assistance in Bosque County. The Harris Fire is located between Meridian and Laguna Park on Highway 22. Texas A&M Forest Service is tied in and working in unified command with the local departments. Very little precipitation has been received in this area. This, coupled with extreme heat causes the fuels to be very susceptible to fire. The fire was fast moving and burning in juniper and grass fuels with group tree torching and short runs. Many departments were on scene with brush trucks, as well as 3 forest service dozers. Air resources were ordered and the fire received water drops from Fire Boss single engine air tankers and a type one