Aggregator

    INCIDENT COMMANDER: Cache Gibbons October 25, 2022 Trail Ridge Fire Fire Summary Approx. 5 miles SE Sula, MT Approx. 11 miles NW of Big Hole National Battlefield Size: 18,138 acres Completion: 80% Personnel: 37         CURRENT STATUS The Trail Ridge Fire is burning on the Wisdom District of the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest and the Darby-Sula District of the Bitterroot National Forest.  A Type 4 team assumed command of the fire October 19, 2022.  The incoming Incident Commander is Cache Gibbons with Incident Commander (t) Cody Hoover.  Both are from Bitterroot National Forest, Darby Ranger District.   Currently the fire is 18,138 acres.  On Saturday, October 22, the fire received a wetting rain with snow starting around 3,800 feet.  This moisture has considerately dampened fire activity.  With more moisture expected over the fire in the coming days the fire will likely continue to smolder and put up very little smoke.  Today fire officials will reassess...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough over the OH Valley Wednesday morning is forecast to quickly advance across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday evening. A related surface low over Lower MI should likewise develop quickly northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward over much of the eastern states through the period. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning along the southern portion of the cold front, mainly across parts of southern/coastal GA and north FL. This region will become increasingly displaced from the large-scale forcing associated with the shortwave trough well to the north. Accordingly, coverage of convection should remain quite sparse through the day as the cold front advances eastward. Farther north, occasional lightning flashes appear possible with low-level warm-advection driven elevated convection across parts of far eastern NY into New England. Limited heating and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to hinder the development of much instability, with MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg. This weak instability should limit the overall severe threat across these areas, even though deep-layer shear is forecast to slowly strengthen through the day. Across the western CONUS, upper troughing should amplify through the period as an embedded shortwave trough digs from the northern Great Basin to the Four Corners region. The strong forcing and cold mid-level temperatures associated with the shortwave trough may encourage some convection to develop mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern UT into southern WY and western/central CO. Some of this activity may be capable of producing isolated lightning flashes, even though instability will likely remain quite meager. ..Gleason.. 10/25/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface low will eject into the Mississippi Valley as high pressure begins to settle into the Plains states today. Patchy dry and breezy conditions are possible across western portions of the central Plains by afternoon peak heating. However, recent appreciable rainfall accumulations and the localized nature of dry/windy conditions across the Plains suggest that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and a tornado risk are possible, mainly across parts of eastern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Tennessee through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mississippi/Alabama/Tennessee/Florida Panhandle... An extensive north/south-oriented broken squall line continues to move eastward from near the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers and across western Tennessee and eastern Mississippi as of midday, largely coincident with a cold front. Additional low-level moistening will continue to occur within the warm sector, with the highest moisture content (60s and some lower 70s F surface dewpoints) across eastern Mississippi into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle/southwest Georgia. Much of this corridor will also coincide with a strong belt of very strong mid-level/deep-layer southwesterly winds. The potential for damaging winds, at least on isolated basis, is expected to increase through the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/moistens. Given the magnitude of the low-level shear/SRH, a tornado risk will also exist. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1899. By late evening and overnight, the severe threat is expected to gradually diminish as the primary shortwave trough and enhanced low-level flow pass north of the weakly unstable warm sector that remains closer to the Gulf coast. Even so, a low-end wind damage and tornado threat may linger overnight across southeast Alabama, Florida Panhandle, into southwest Georgia. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/25/2022 Read more

The Mill Lake Fire started by lightning on August 29th, located approx. two miles east of Mill Lake and eight miles west of the Mill Creek Trailhead. Blodgett Lake Fire burned the north east corner on the north side of Blodgett Canyon. Mill Lake Fire had a few predominant smokes in the bottom of the drainage in the heavy timber that is continuing to smoldered in the heavy fuels on the ground.All major suppression repair work has been completed.   All trail closures have been rescinded and are open to the

MD 1899 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2022 Areas affected...much of eastern Mississippi into western and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251621Z - 251845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to gradually increase in intensity along a cold front, with sporadic wind damage and couple tornadoes possible. DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms currently extends from the MO Bootheel into western TN, and due south across the middle of MS. While northern parts of this line are surging quickly northeastward coincident with the shortwave trough, southern portions of the line are moving slower toward the east. Recently, lightning has been observed over central MS where MLCAPE remains below 1000 J/kg. Surface observations show warming over southern MS with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 F, and this degree of warming may be needed for surface-based inflow parcels initially. With time, a few cells along the front may become severe, with sections of QLCS possible. Large scale lift is more favorable farther north, but low-level convergence along the front should be enough to initiate new storms later today given robust moisture. Large looping hodographs with 0-1 SRH to 300 m2/s2 will clearly favor rotation, with a conditional threat of brief tornadoes and corridors of damaging winds. The slow eastward movement of the line, coupled with diurnal considerations, do appear favorable for a discrete supercell or two later this afternoon, most notably where southern portions of the line interact with the stronger MLCAPE. Though models differ on storm coverage, any discrete supercells in this high shear environment could result in an isolated strong tornado within a relatively narrow zone. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/25/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32598955 33388937 34118920 34688917 35088880 35118802 35058731 34808696 34318691 33418712 32228754 31758798 31378859 31358931 31368957 31908959 32598955 Read more

So far in October, just a quarter of an inch has fallen at the Toledo Express Airport. The dry conditions have been good for harvesting, but not so good for growers with broccoli, cabbage, carrots and other crops. They still need rain. Farmers in northwest Ohio were putting in cover crops. One organic farmer couldn’t get his cover crop to come up, so he had to irrigate. Trees and shrubs could use a drink, given how dry the weather has been lately. WTVG-TV 13abc Toledo (Ohio), Oct 24, 2022

Fifty-one Kentucky counties have burn bans, and burn restrictions were active everywhere else. LEX 18 (Lexington, Ky.), Oct 24, 2022 More than 40 Kentucky counties have local burn bans due to the fire risk, according to the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet. NKy Tribune (Edgewood, Ky.), Oct 18, 2022

The Iowa state fire marshal stated that five counties in northwest Iowa have burn bans, including Cherokee, O'Brien, Sioux, Plymouth, and Crawford counties. A field fire near Sibley in Osceola County on Sept. 25 consumed a combine and up to 50 acres of soybeans. Local farmers disced around the fire to contain it. Storm Lake Radio (Iowa), Sept 29, 2022

A Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team is working on the 2022 fires affecting the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest (MBS): Bolt Creek, Suiattle River, Boulder Lake, and Lake Toketie. The mission of a BAER team is a two-part assessment of post-fire watersheds. First, what are the potential risks to human life, safety, or property, and to critical natural and cultural resources? Second, what emergency stabilization measures can be implemented on federal lands in a timely manner to reduce unacceptable risks from potential flooding or debris flows? The MBS BAER team will present their findings and recommendations to the Forest Supervisor. If the BAER team determines there may be potential emergency situations, the short-term goal is to complete flood and erosion control protection measures before the first large rain

The Kansas Water Office issued a water warning for all residents using Burlington water, including those in Gridley, LeRoy and New Strawn, and those served by Coffey Rural Water Districts 2 and 3. Coffey County also has an ongoing emergency drought declaration, and that, combined with the lack of inflow from the Cottonwood and Neosho Rivers and predicted levels at John Redmond Reservoir, prompted the warning. KVOE (Emporia, Kan.), Oct 22, 2022

Residents in Chase County have been asked to voluntarily conserve water. This request includes Cottonwood Falls, Strong City and Chase County Rural Water District 1. KVOE (Emporia, Kan.), Oct 22, 2022

The Blue Ridge Salvage and Fuels Reduction Project is part of the Forest Service’s on-going effort to improve forest health conditions on the Sulphur Ranger District. Blue Ridge is the geographic feature that runs North-South from Granby to Fraser, between the East Troublesome, Church Park and Williams Fork fires. Improving conditions in this area is a key component of the Hot Sulphur, Fraser and Grand County Community Wildfire Protection Plans. Much of the adjacent private land is developed or proposed for development. In addition, the adjacent private land contains large ranches and the YMCA of the Rockies’ Snow Mountain Ranch. The project area and the adjacent private land experienced a mountain pine beetle epidemic about a decade ago. As a result, the majority of the mature lodgepole pine trees within this area have been killed, both on and off the National Forest. The prescribed burning portion of the decision includes approximately 11,652 acres to be treated using prescribed...

The Tennessee Valley Authority began releasing water from Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River and Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River in Kentucky into the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. The measure was intended to help stabilize commercial navigation conditions on the lower Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The Mississippi River at Cairo, Illinois was nearing its lowest level since 1901, according to TVA post. Memphis Commercial Appeal (Tenn.), Oct 20, 2022

Barge drafts on the Lower Mississippi River were reduced to 9 feet on Oct. 17 in both directions, marking a 24% to 30% reduction to tons per barge compared to normal conditions. The bottom line is that shippers pay the same for a barge regardless of how much is loaded in it. DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), Oct 24, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 24 18:06:02 UTC 2022.

The Diamond Watch Fire started by lightning on July 14th had a small uptick in fire activity this week. The smoke was highly visible from ID Highway 57 near Nordman, ID and is burning below the eastern slope of Diamond Peak.  The public is encouraged not to stop along the roadway if traveling HWY 57 near the fire area.  The fire has been burning in rugged, steep, and dangerous terrain which has prompted fire officials to apply a confine/contain strategy to provide a safe working environment for firefighters.  Smoke will continue to linger as duff and small timber litter debris burn within the fire.  Fire behavior has been low to moderate, with fire mostly creeping along the forest floor.An area and road closure is in place, effective for Forest Service Roads 311, 308 and 1362H and the area in the vicinity of the Diamond Watch Fire.  Petit Lake and its associated dispersed campsites are within the area closure.  FSR 1362 remains open.  This closure is for public safety due to...

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South across the Southeast States on Tuesday. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, though a tornado or two also will be possible. ...Synopsis... A compact and potent mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This system will bring intense midlevel flow to portions of the lower MS Valley and the Mid-South, with 80+ kt southwesterly flow forecast at 500 mb. In the low levels, a 50 kt southerly low-level jet will develop east/northeast from the lower MS Valley toward Middle TN through early evening. A surface low over northwest AR Tuesday morning will track northeast through the period, becoming positioned over lower MI by Wednesday morning. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the Lower MS, TN and OH Valley vicinity, extending from eastern IN/western OH into eastern TN/western GA and the middle FL Peninsula by the end of the period. Strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the cold front across portions of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South and Southeast states. ...Lower MS Valley/Mid-South into MS/AL... Strong warm advection will support a wedge of 60s F dewpoints as far north as Middle TN to develop ahead of the eastward-progressing cold front. Boundary-layer moisture will diminish with northward extent into the Ohio Valley/Midwest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected. Potential showers and cloud cover across the warm sector will limit stronger heating, and midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. This will preclude stronger destabilization, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range anticipated (with highest values further south). Nevertheless, the region will be under the influence for strong vertical shear and organized line segments are expected. The Marginal risk was expanded into parts of northeast AR/southeast MO near the surface low where ongoing thunderstorms could pose a threat for strong gusts and perhaps small hail for a few hours during the morning. Otherwise, severe potential should gradually increase through the morning/early afternoon as a line of showers and thunderstorms near the MS River shifts east across MS/western TN. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity along the strongly forced line of convection. However, enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs indicative of the rapidly increasing flow with height accompanying this system will support both mesovortex formation along line segments and rotating updrafts within any semi-discrete cells that can develop. A corridor of relative higher tornado potential (indicated by a 5 percent tornado probability) may develop where stronger low-level instability will overlap with favorable vertical shear across parts of MS/AL. ..Leitman.. 10/24/2022 Read more

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Areas affected...parts of the South Plains and northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241738Z - 242015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form this afternoon from South Plains into far southwest Oklahoma, with a few storms producing severe gusts or hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues near an east-west oriented front from the Lubbock area into northwest TX, with increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to form. While moisture is limited with low 50s F dewpoints, deep-layer lapse rates will continue to steepen as a strong vorticity maximum aloft moves east out of NM. The initial focus for development will be near the Lubbock area, near the surface wave along the stationary front. Visible imagery also shows CU forming along the surging cold front as well north of the Midland area. Given strengthening deep-layer lift, and a surface focus, scattered storms appear likely over the next few hours. The surging cold front will favor linear modes, though very strong deep-layer shear oriented across this boundary may lead to QLCS structures and/or cellular activity as well, producing hail. While a watch is not expected in the short term, trends will be monitored for expanding strong to severe storm coverage. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34460165 34990001 34969958 34669924 34359920 33859925 33019986 32260058 32180125 32290201 32670220 33120200 33950191 34460165 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts