Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the Texas Panhandle into southwest Oklahoma, southwest Texas, and the Texas Hill Country. ...Southern Plains... A strong shortwave trough will dig from the Four Corners region across NM and the southern High Plains Thursday into Thursday night. A surface lee cyclone initially over southeastern CO is forecast to develop southeastward across the southern High Plains through the day. An attendant cold front should likewise sweep southeastward over the southern High Plains. A prior cold front passage has shunted rich low-level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico. Still, modest low-level moisture return will occur across TX on Thursday. Most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will be in place ahead of the surface low/cold front across the southern High Plains by early Thursday evening. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough, steep mid-level lapse rates, and daytime heating should all contribute to the development of a narrow corridor of weak instability by late Thursday afternoon from the southeastern TX Panhandle into southwest TX. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any thunderstorms that can form in this environment. Current expectations are for convection to gradually develop late Thursday afternoon and evening near the surface low in northwest TX as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. This initial activity may pose an isolated threat for both large hail and damaging winds, with some potential for a supercell given long, straight hodographs forecast at mid/upper levels. Additional thunderstorms should eventually form along the cold front across southwest TX and quickly grow upscale Thursday evening/night, with an associated threat for isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail. A marginal severe risk may persist Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of the TX Hill Country as mainly elevated thunderstorms continue eastward along/ahead of the cold front, with increasing low-level moisture and warm advection acting to partially offset nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. At this point, the limited low-level moisture and weak instability forecast render too much uncertainty to include greater severe probabilities across the southern Plains. ..Gleason.. 10/26/2022 Read more

The Sturgill fire is located in the North Minam Drainage burning in mixed conifer. Firefighters continue to implement strategies to protect adjacent private property and inholdings such as Red’s Horse Ranch, the Minam River Lodge, and along Lostine River Rd. Fire resources have begun constructing a shaded fuel break between Lostine and Bear Creek to prevent fire growth to the north.Fire Evacuation - Wednesday, September 14, 2022, at 10:00 AMAll fire evacuation levels have been

October 26 Siouxon and Sunset Fire Update Current Situation: Rain and snow continue to fall on the Goat Rocks, Siouxon, and Sunset fire areas. Roads above 4,000 feet in elevation have received up to three inches of snow. In the interest of safety, firefighters are not travelling on snow-covered roads. Rain and snow are expected to fall intermittently into next week. Continued moisture is helping limit growth potential, but it is also making it difficult for firefighters to patrol or improve containment lines safely. Chipping and brush removal operations along Forest Road 311 near the Siouxon Fire and road repairs on Forest Road 42 near Sunset Falls Campground have paused due to saturated roads and continued rain and snow. These activities will require a period of dry weather before they can be completed. Firefighters will continue monitoring and patrolling the fire lines where it is safe to do so, while surplus resources will be released.Weather Information: On Tuesday, rain and...

The Goat Mountain 2 Fire is located southeast of Goat Mountain in the Eagle Cap Wilderness Area. Firefighters will monitor the Goat Mountain 2 Fire from lookouts and aircraft. If needed, they will take action to suppress the fire in Lostline Canyon. The fire is surrounded by rocky terrain on three sides. There are currently trail and road closures in effect for the fire within the Eagle Cap Wilderness Area. Closure Orders and Maps are available on the Wallowa Whitman National Forest Fire Incident Updates page. Fire Evacuation - Wednesday, September 14, 2022, at 10:00 AMAll fire evacuation levels have been

Sunday morning October 23, Rocky Mountain Incident Management Team Three assumed command of the Goat Rocks Fire, to continue the great work done by the type 3 organization. The Rocky Mountain IMT is also managing the Siouxon and Sunset fires to the southwest on the Gifford Pinchot National Forest.Resources: Daily Fire Updates can be accessed here or through the News tab in the blue bar located in the upper portion of this page. A variety of maps are added daily to the Maps section in the blue bar in the upper portion of this page or via this direct link.History and CommandOn September 12, Northwest Incident Management Team 10 took command of the Goat Rocks Fire. They did extensive work on the fire before passing management to Nevada Incident Management Team 4 on September 25.Another Type 3 Incident Management Team assumed command of the fire on October 9, 2022. They continued work to contain the fire and started suppression repair work before passing management to Rocky...

Lightning storms came through the area on August 22 and 23. The Nebo Fire is located 21 Miles SE of Enterprise, OR. Near Mount Nebo. The fire is in the upper Lick Creek drainage and is burning in sub-alpine fir and grass. Pacific Northwest Team 2 took command of the fire on 09/03, and Oregon Office of the State Fire Marshal joined in unified command on 09/04.There are three lightning caused fires within the Eagle Cap Wilderness. The Nebo, Sturgill, and Goat Mountain 2 Fires are active and being managed to protect public and private infrastructure, while playing a natural role within designated Wilderness. In the Nebo fire, clean up from thinning and masticating will continue along Wallowa Mountain Loop Road (FSR 39). The Wallowa County Sheriff's Office issued an updated evacuation notice for today (Tuesday, September 14, 2022) at 10:00 a.m.All fire evacuations have been rescinded.Wallowa Whitman National Forest Temporary Area Closures: The Wallowa Whitman National Forest...

Lightning storms came through the area on August 22 and 23. The Nebo Fire is located 21 Miles SE of Enterprise, OR. Near Mount Nebo. The fire is in the upper Lick Creek drainage and is burning in sub-alpine fir and grass. Pacific Northwest Team 2 took command of the fire on 09/03, and Oregon Office of the State Fire Marshal joined in unified command on 09/04.There are three lightning caused fires within the Eagle Cap Wilderness. The Nebo, Sturgill, and Goat Mountain 2 Fires are active and being managed to protect public and private infrastructure, while playing a natural role within designated Wilderness. In the Nebo fire, clean up from thinning and masticating will continue along Wallowa Mountain Loop Road (FSR 39).  The Wallowa County Sheriff's Office issued an updated evacuation notice for today (Tuesday, September 14, 2022) at 10:00 a.m.All fire evacuations have been rescinded.Wallowa Whitman National Forest Temporary Area Closures: The Wallowa Whitman National Forest...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Surface low development will take place across the central and southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Rockies today. While breezy conditions will develop across the western portions of the Plains states, the surface airmass will be marginally dry at best, with fuels relatively poorly receptive to wildfire spread. While sparse Elevated conditions may occur across western Kansas by afternoon peak heating, significant wildfire-spread potential appears too low to warrant fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... A northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough moving toward the Northeast States/New England and a warm advection regime will influence the potential for isolated thunderstorms, mostly for coastal New England. Poor lapse rates will limit CAPE and any potential for severe storms. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today across north Florida/south Georgia along a cold front. A narrow corridor of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy, but forcing for ascent will continue to weaken with time, so storm coverage should remain isolated. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over Washington/Oregon will dig southeastward toward UT through tonight. Cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet will contribute to weak buoyancy, mainly this afternoon/evening from southeast Idaho to northwest Colorado. Isolated lightning flashes will be possible, but relatively cold temperature profiles suggest that most of the convective precipitation will be snow. ..Guyer/Karstens.. 10/26/2022 Read more

The Cedar Creek Fire began August 1, 2022 when a lightning storm caused 20 to 30 new fires on the Willamette National Forest.  The incident is currently being managed by the Eastern Area Silver Incident Management Team. The fire location includes steep, rugged terrain which has posed a challenge for access. The fire does cover land that includes wilderness and roadless areas. Firefighters will engage directly on the fire's edge where it is safe to do so. Indirect line may be built in areas where access is not possible and/or unsafe. Aircraft is being utilized as weather conditions allow to support firefighters on the ground. Suppression repair work is occurring around the area as well as hazard mitigations taking place.   Smoke: For current conditions, see Fire.airnow.gov, oakridgeair.org and Smoke Outlooks.Evacuations: Notices are in place in Lane County. View the Interactive Evacuation Map.Closures: An area closure is in effect for parts of the Willamette National...

As of 5 pm PDT, on September 2, 2022, the Eneas Peak, Katka, Russell Mountain, Scotch Creek, and Trout Fires were officially grouped into the Kootenai River Complex. The Eneas Peak Fire, confirmed on August 13th, was started by lightning and is visible from the Kootenai River Valley and most of the Bonners Ferry area.  The fire is located approximately 15 miles north-northwest of Bonners Ferry, on the south aspect below Eneas Peak and above Fisher Creek. The terrain is steep and inaccessible (60%-80% slopes), with numerous dead and downed trees. These conditions prevent the use of firefighter direct attack tactics where fireline is built directly next to the fire. Fire managers assessed the area by air and ground for potential confinement lines. In the afternoon of August 21, 2022, the Trout Fire was detected during district fire patrol. The Trout Fire is located within the Selkirk Mountain Range on the Bonners Ferry Ranger District of the Idaho Panhandle National Forests. It is...

The lightning caused Woodtick Fire started as two separate fires on July 14, 2022, in a rugged and remote area on the Middle Fork Ranger District in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness. Firefighters made multiple attempts to directly engage with the fire. Due to the risk to responders in the remote, steep, and rugged terrain, fire managers decided to shift from a direct attack strategy to a combination of a point protection and confine and contain strategy.  This strategy has focused operations on protecting highly valued resources such as structures, natural resources, cultural resources, and other property.  Additionally, firefighters are working to safely connect natural barriers in the area (such as rocky outcrops and creeks) through actions including fireline construction, burn-out operations , and bucket drops. Since mid-July, the area has experienced multiple red flag warnings for gusty winds, high temperatures, low humidity, and thunderstorms. On July 30 and 31,...

The Moose Fire has been turned back to the Salmon-Challis National Forest.  The Moose Fire started on the Salmon River bank near Little Moose Creek on Sunday, July 17th, 2022. The fire spread from the river bank from grass and shrubs at low elevations to mixed conifer forests at high elevations. Fire managers are working to: - Protect private property and natural resources - Provide public and responder safety - Strengthen relationships with community and partners Firefighters are patrolling the fire and posting lookouts in strategic locations for the areas of the fire where heat remains. 

The lightning caused Norton Fire started on August 1, 2022, approximately seven miles northwest of Lower Loon Creek on the Middle Fork Ranger District in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness. Initial attack included 25 firefighters and two Type 1 helicopters in an attempt to catch the fire small under direct attack. Ultimately due to firefighter safety, fire behavior, and access to the fire, the direct attack strategy was changed to point protection. Fire managers utilized air resources determine management action points and assess values in the vicinity.  Fire managers continue to assess the fire using remote cameras and aircraft.Norton Lookout and outbuildings have been covered with structure wrap, which reflects radiant heat and diverts embers from settling directly on the building.

A relic collector found Civil War-era bullets and a union U.S. cartridge box plate in the rocks exposed by the low waters of the Mississippi River under the Interstate 55 bridge in Memphis, Tennessee. ABC News (New York), Oct 25, 2022

Burn permits were not being issued in the Kearney area, due to dry conditions. On Oct. 25, the Kearney Volunteer Fire Department issued a burn ban that will remain in effect until the city receives measurable moisture. The fire chief also discouraged people from burning in burn barrels during the ban. The wind, warmth and low humidity allowed the vegetation to dry quickly, contributing to a rash of wildfires across Nebraska on Oct. 23. News Channel Nebraska (Norfolk, Neb.), Oct 25, 2022

Update, October 25, 2022, 6:30 p.m.The Mosquito Fire is 100% contained. A weak system will move through the fire area overnight, bringing high clouds and increased relative humidity, but precipitation will stay well north. Work along roads is ongoing, including removing hazard trees, repairing damaged roads and infrastructure, and stabilizing slopes in burned areas. Unfortunately, some roads within the burned area are in danger of flooding and rockfall even after the work is completed. Roads will be assessed and opened as possible to maintain worker and public safety.  Other Resources:Mosquito Fire meeting and briefing videos: YouTubeTahoe National Forest: Closure Orders & Maps | Fire Restrictions | Facebook | TwitterEldorado National Forest: Closure Orders & Maps | Fire Restrictions | Facebook | Twitter Placer County: Mosquito Fire Information | Facebook | Twitter | Post-Fire Recovery El Dorado County: Mosquito Fire...

Fire activity on the Loch Katrine, Suiattle River, and Boulder Lake fires has been limited by the recent rain showers, cooler temperatures, and high-elevation snowfall. As of 6:00 pm on Tuesday, October 25, the Mt Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest assumed management of the Loch Katrine Fire. As of 6:00 am Sunday, October 23, 2022, the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest assumed management of the Suiattle River Fire and the Boulder Lake Fire, because no further significant activity is anticipated on these fires based on current and expected weather forecasts.  If you have questions or need addition information, please contact the Darrington Ranger Station during normal business hours at

Private drinking water wells in Woodbury County were running dry amid drought, according to the Siouxland District Health Department. Local well drillers were hard pressed to keep up with the demand to drill new wells. Residents relying on wells would be wise to conserve water. Siouxland Proud (Sioux City, Iowa), Oct 25, 2022