Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE MIDDLE COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Friday over parts of southeast Texas including the Middle Texas Coast. A brief tornado or two and hail appear most likely. ...Southeast Texas... A deep upper low/shortwave trough will travel eastward across TX, with gradual filling. A tight midlevel temperature gradient will exist roughly north of I-10, with rapid cooling aloft coincident with a "Pacific front." At the surface, an inverted trough will develop and translate from central into southeast TX as low-level moisture return occurs along a warm front. This will result in a tight instability gradient, limiting the northward extent of SBCAPE. Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime well ahead of the cold front, but antecedent cool air over southeast TX may result in very little northward movement of the warm front. A sector of favorable instability and low-level shear will exist, and may favor a few supercells with brief tornado threat. The strongest 850 mb winds and thus SRH may remain on the cool side of the warm front, and models indicate much less SRH coincident with the most unstable air farther south. Therefore, any tornadoes are expected to be brief. Additional storms will occur along the cold front, which will have rapidly veering surface winds. Deep-layer shear combined with cool temperatures aloft will still favor hail, and a cell or two could produce substantial hail, including the potential for left movers. Heating will be limited, which will also mitigate overall severe potential. ..Jewell.. 10/27/2022 Read more

Hay and forage production in Iowa and southern Missouri was down through much of the growing season, so cow-calf producers will have to find an alternative feed to stuff to partially replace hay. In the Ozarks, a bale of grass hay sells for $50 to $60 in some areas. Forage testing is essential as fescue is toxic, while hay is half as toxic as the pasture, according to an Extension forage specialist with the University of Missouri. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Oct 27, 2022

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...MAINLY TONIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible from northwest Texas this evening into the Hill Country through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies have trended more zonal across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. However, a significant remnant short wave perturbation associated with this regime continues to dig across the Four Corners vicinity, and is forecast to reach the Texas South Plains vicinity by late tonight. Models suggest that further deepening of an embedded mid-level low is unlikely, but associated forcing for ascent may continue to contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis across eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas this afternoon and evening. In the wake of a more substantive preceding short wave trough (now accelerating across Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity), expansive cold surface ridging has overspread most areas east of the Rockies. The ridging is currently centered over the lower Great Lakes region, but extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Substantive low-level moisture is largely confined to the vicinity of the frontal zone across the Florida peninsula and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models suggest that northward return of this moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas Gulf coast vicinity is possible by late tonight, but low-level moisture return inland of coastal areas, through the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the Texas South Plains, will be rather modest, even for the time of year. Destabilization probably will still be sufficient, coupled with the increasing forcing for ascent associated with the digging short wave trough, to contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening through tonight. However, much of the rest of the U.S. will remain generally dry and or stable, with negligible risk for thunderstorms. ...Texas South Plains into Hill Country vicinity... Despite the limited moisture, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, associated with remnant elevated mixed-layer air and daytime boundary-layer heating and mixing, probably will be sufficient to contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization by this afternoon. Largest CAPE may be confined to a rather narrow corridor along a zone of strong differential surface heating/developing dryline. This could include values on the order of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg by early evening, which may be maintained after dark with some further boundary-layer moistening and cooling aloft. Beneath increasing difluent and divergent flow aloft, focused low-level convergence/warm advection might contribute to the initiation of isolated to widely scattered strong storms across the southeastern Texas Panhandle prior to sunset. However, more widespread thunderstorm development likely will await the arrival of stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the Texas South Plains, mostly after 28/01-02Z. A few of these may pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. While the severe weather potential may generally wane toward 06Z as convection becomes increasingly widespread, conditions may remain favorable for isolated supercell development within a persistent focused area of stronger low-level warm advection on the southern periphery of the activity spreading southeastward into the Edwards Plateau near San Angelo/Junction through around 06-09Z. ..Kerr.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...MAINLY TONIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible from northwest Texas this evening into the Hill Country through Friday morning. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies have trended more zonal across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. However, a significant remnant short wave perturbation associated with this regime continues to dig across the Four Corners vicinity, and is forecast to reach the Texas South Plains vicinity by late tonight. Models suggest that further deepening of an embedded mid-level low is unlikely, but associated forcing for ascent may continue to contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis across eastern New Mexico into adjacent western Texas this afternoon and evening. In the wake of a more substantive preceding short wave trough (now accelerating across Quebec into the Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity), expansive cold surface ridging has overspread most areas east of the Rockies. The ridging is currently centered over the lower Great Lakes region, but extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Substantive low-level moisture is largely confined to the vicinity of the frontal zone across the Florida peninsula and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models suggest that northward return of this moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas Gulf coast vicinity is possible by late tonight, but low-level moisture return inland of coastal areas, through the lower Rio Grande Valley toward the Texas South Plains, will be rather modest, even for the time of year. Destabilization probably will still be sufficient, coupled with the increasing forcing for ascent associated with the digging short wave trough, to contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across parts of the southern Great Plains this evening through tonight. However, much of the rest of the U.S. will remain generally dry and or stable, with negligible risk for thunderstorms. ...Texas South Plains into Hill Country vicinity... Despite the limited moisture, steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, associated with remnant elevated mixed-layer air and daytime boundary-layer heating and mixing, probably will be sufficient to contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization by this afternoon. Largest CAPE may be confined to a rather narrow corridor along a zone of strong differential surface heating/developing dryline. This could include values on the order of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg by early evening, which may be maintained after dark with some further boundary-layer moistening and cooling aloft. Beneath increasing difluent and divergent flow aloft, focused low-level convergence/warm advection might contribute to the initiation of isolated to widely scattered strong storms across the southeastern Texas Panhandle prior to sunset. However, more widespread thunderstorm development likely will await the arrival of stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the Texas South Plains, mostly after 28/01-02Z. A few of these may pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. While the severe weather potential may generally wane toward 06Z as convection becomes increasingly widespread, conditions may remain favorable for isolated supercell development within a persistent focused area of stronger low-level warm advection on the southern periphery of the activity spreading southeastward into the Edwards Plateau near San Angelo/Junction through around 06-09Z. ..Kerr.. 10/27/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states today, with a surface low expected to surge southeast across west Texas as high pressure builds across the Interior West. Occasionally dry and windy conditions should develop by afternoon behind the low in parts of west Texas. However, questionable fuel receptiveness and marginally low RH suggest that fire weather highlights are not needed. Similarly, dry offshore flow is also likely across southern California, with Elevated conditions likely. Nonetheless, fire weather highlights have been withheld since fuels across the area are poorly receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Brown County Water Improvement District urged customers to conserve as much as possible as Stage 1 of the Drought Contingency Plan remained in effect. The district was nearing Stage 2, Moderate Drought Conditions, which will start when Lake Brownwood drops to 8 feet below spillway. The water level was 7.9 feet below the spillway earlier in the week and at 62.8% capacity. BrownwoodNews.com (Texas), Oct 27, 2022

Polk County had a burn ban in effect as of Oct. 24. The Kansas City Star (Mo.), Oct 25, 2022

The windy, dry weather in the Kansas City area contributed to the grass fires that burned in south Kansas City between Raytown and Lees Summit. Kansas City has received 28 inches of rain, compared to the about 35 inches of rain typically received by this point in the year. The Kansas City Star (Mo.), Oct 25, 2022

A large brush fire in Cooper County and almost zero visibility led to the closure of Interstate 70 between mile marker 106 and 117. The Missouri River Bridge at Rocheport was also closed. Dry vegetation, low humidity levels and windy conditions contributed to dangerous fire conditions in the area. KSIS-AM (Sedalia, Mo.), Oct 22, 2022

Sections of southwestern Lancaster County were evacuated on Oct. 23 due to wind-driven wildfires. At least three buildings were destroyed. KLKN-TV 8 Lincoln (Neb.), Oct 23, 2022

Ingram Barge, the largest barge operator in the U.S. and based in Nashville, alerted customers it had declared record water levels a “force majeure event,” which invokes an “act of God” provision in their contracts. The declaration means that circumstances beyond their control were preventing normal river transport operations in certain areas. Tennessee Lookout (Nashville, Tenn.), Oct 24, 2022

Utah pumpkin growers produced fewer pumpkins this year as drought and heat affected production. Water supplies were short for some, leading them to plant fewer acres for lack of water. One farmer near Gunnison, Utah, planted just 20 acres of pumpkins and left another 80 acres idle, due to limited water. No grains or alfalfa was grown this year either. Some grocery stores were looking to purchase pumpkins from out of state to meet the demand for pumpkins. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), Oct 24, 2022

Texas honey production was expected to be down this season due to the lack of soil moisture and extreme heat statewide, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert. Major wildflower bloom periods in parts of the state were hindered by the lack of soil moisture and forage for bees, in addition to the early arrival of extreme heat. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Oct 26, 2022

Nebraska corn, soybean and wheat farmers may have lost nearly $2 billion due to drought this year. Nebraska Farm Bureau’s Senior Economist Jay Rempe estimated the loss to be $1.1 billion on corn and $674 million on soybeans, while wheat production was down 31%. The total loss is likely higher as the estimates to not include losses for other crops like sorghum, sugar beets, sunflowers, and dry beans. Cattle and other livestock were also affected by drought. Much of the state’s pasture and rangeland was rated very poor to poor. Alfalfa production was estimated to be 22% lower than in 2021, while other hay production was estimated to be 18% lower than last year. Nebraska Farm Bureau (Lincoln, Neb.), Oct 27, 2022

Many West Tennessee farmers were so close to the Mississippi River that they delivered their grain straight to the river, lacking any storage silos that farmers elsewhere might use. But with the river so low, they had to leave crops in the field and pray for their fields to remain dry and for rain to raise river levels. Some barge companies were backed up and could not immediately take grain. Tennessee Lookout (Nashville, Tenn.), Oct 24, 2022

Continuing drought in the Missouri River Basin led the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to lower Missouri River levels from Nebraska City to Kansas City by a full foot. The lower levels will affect boat traffic and could impact municipal water supplies and other utilities that rely on the river. Missouri River Basin Water Management Director John Remus says conditions have been getting worse since the drought first began to emerge in July of 2020. Radio Iowa (Des Moines), Sept. 14, 2022

Releases from Missouri River dams are expected to be lower this winter, due to low precipitation and drought, according to officials with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division, although releases from Gavins Point Dam were increased by 300 cubic feet per second in October to maintain downstream water needs. The Mitchell Daily Republic (S.D.), Oct 26, 2022 Forecasts for continued or worsening drought and lower than normal Missouri River levels have left the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers managing the river at the minimum service level, meaning that the navigation channel is also shallower and narrower. The navigation season is likely to end early in November also instead of Dec. 1. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), April 12, 2022 Runoff into the Missouri River above Sioux City continued to decline further. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on April 4 lowered the 2022 runoff forecast to 17.8 million acre-feet from 20.4 MAF after March runoff was just 1.5 MAF, 48% of average for the month. "Runoff was well below normal due to dry soil conditions and well below normal precipitation across the entire Missouri River basin," stated chief of the corps’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. "Due to the lack of plains snowpack in 2022, below-average mountain snowpack and dry upper basin conditions, we expect upper Missouri River Basin runoff to be below average." The revised annual forecasted runoff for 2022 is 69% of normal levels. The average annual runoff is 25.8 MAF. In 2021, runoff was 15.2 MAF, the 10th lowest total in 123 years of record keeping. Sioux City Journal (Iowa), April 5, 2022 Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Central Plains through the spring, leading to below normal runoff for the Missouri River in 2022. February runoff was less than predicted, and runoff is expected to be well below normal below Sioux City for 2022 water year. The 2022 calendar year runoff forecast above Sioux City, Iowa, has dropped from 21.7 million acre feet in February to 20.4 MAF on March 1, a reduction of 1.3 MAF, amounting to 79% of normal. Hydropower will be reduced with the lower river levels. The six mainstem power plants generated 448 million kWh of electricity in February, compared to typical energy generation for the month of 624 million kWh. Based on current projections, the Missouri River’s annual power production will be 7.4 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), while the average is 9.4 billion kWh. Vermillion Plain Talk (S.D.), March 11, 2022

The low Mississippi River has not allowed grain to be moved quickly or at all, in some cases, so the grain has been piled on the ground. Soybeans were being piled at the terminal at Helena-West Helena during the second week of October, and more trucks were lined up to unload. Farmers get less for the grain as grain elevators bid lower and offer less for the grain, taking into account the higher cost of shipping the grain. Talk Business & Politics (Lowell, Ark.), Oct 17, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 26 17:25:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 26 17:25:02 UTC 2022.