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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Oct 2022 14:50:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Oct 2022 15:22:35 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 728 WTPZ44 KNHC 201449 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 Convection associated with the cyclone has become a bit better organized since the last advisory, with a strong cluster having developed near the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now near 35 kt, and based on this the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Roslyn with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system has strengthened, recent microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggests that multiple low-level swirls are present near the center, indicating that the inner core has not yet tightened up. The initial motion is now 275/5 kt along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the storm. In addition, a deep-layer low pressure area is currently located southwest of California, and west of the ridge. These features are forecast to move slowly eastward during the next few days, with the deep-layer steering flow near Roslyn changing from easterly to southeasterly to southerly and eventually to southwesterly. This evolution should cause the storm to recurve between the ridge and the low and make landfall in western Mexico. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However, there is some spread regarding how quickly Roslyn will recurve. The GFS is on the right side of the guidance envelope with the center passing near Cabo Corrientes, while the UKMET and ECMWF are farther west. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast and calls for the center to pass just west of Cabo Corrientes in about 72 h, followed by landfall in mainland Mexico before 96 h. The new forecast track is near or a little to the east of the consensus models. Roslyn is currently over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear. These conditions are likely to persist for the next 72 h or so, and they should allow Roslyn to steadily intensify. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to a forecast increase in shear, the possibility of dry air entrainment, and the possibility of land interaction. The new NHC forecast is generally similar to the previous forecast, although it has a slightly lower peak intensity before landfall in mainland Mexico due to a downward trend in the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, with the cyclone dissipating over the mountains of Mexico between 96-120 h. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system, and hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required for portions of this coastline later today. 2. Heavy rainfall from Roslyn could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.2N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 201448 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 17(59) X(59) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 17(31) X(31) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) X(35) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 28(48) X(48) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 16(51) X(51) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 X 5( 5) 19(24) 6(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 32(36) 3(39) X(39) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 30(47) 2(49) X(49) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 613 WTPZ24 KNHC 201448 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 612 WTPZ34 KNHC 201448 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Roslyn is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a northward motion by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or over the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Roslyn outer rainbands may produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas of Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Roslyn is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 the center of Roslyn was located near 15.2, -102.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Drought gripped northeast Oklahoma this year, leading one pumpkin patch to water its corn maze daily to help it through the intense heat and dry conditions. KTUL-TV ABC 8 (Tulsa, Okla.), Oct 15, 2022

Kansas crops like milo, corn and soybeans were very poor, according to a farmer. He warns that without moisture that the next season’s crops will also be at risk. No moisture this fall means that the soil may blow and crops are unable to grow. He urged people to pray for rain. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Oct 16, 2022

Drought maintained its grip on northwest Nebraska where a couple with a cow-calf operation opted to follow their drought plan by reducing their breeding season, selling some cattle and weaning calves to get them to market early. 1011 Now (Lincoln, Neb.), Oct. 17, 2022

Most of the crops planted on an urban Kansas City farm at the end of summer have not yet sprouted, costing the farm an estimated thousands of dollars, on top of the cost of crops lost during the summer. Some crops were planted three times. Those that germinated died from heat and drought. Other urban farmers had similar experiences and irrigated, leading to large water bills. Grasshoppers and other pests were more problematic than usual this year. Fall production losses may lead the farm to close early at the end of October rather than selling through Thanksgiving. KSHB-TV NBC 41 Kansas City (Mo.), Oct 14, 2022

The White River and Irving Peak Fires began after a lightning storm passed through the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest on August 11, 2022. The Minnow Ridge Fire cause is currently undetermined. These fires are burning on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest. The Irving Peak and White River fires are located approximately 15 miles northwest of Plain, WA. The Minnow Ridge fire is located near Chikamin Ridge, approximately 14 miles north of Plain, WA. Local resources and a Type 4 Incident Commander have taken over to finish out the remaining fire suppression activities on the White River, Irving Peak, Meander, and now Minnow Ridge fires. Due to rugged and steep terrain, fire managers implemented a long-term strategy to manage these fires, including the use of primary and contingency perimeter lines for containment. Tactics included completion and reinforcement of fire lines utilizing forest roads and constructed hand line. Firelines have successfully held, keeping the fire in the...

Firefighters in southeast Missouri have been very busy with high call volumes in the last few months, due to drought. WSIL-TV ABC 3 (Harrisburg, Ill.), Oct 15, 2022

Many trees in California’s forests were turning rust colored as another year of drought and bark beetles or other insects led to higher tree mortality. Trees were stressed from inadequate water and could not produce enough sap or pitch to defend themselves against insects. The 2021-22 winter was relatively warm and dry and allowed the bark beetles to continue reproducing and attacking the trees. A mass tree die-off occurred in 2016 when an estimated 62 million trees died. FOX 40 (Sacramento, Calif.), Oct 19, 2022

Some Goshen County livestock producers already grazed their winter pastures and were feeding hay. There were major sales of livestock and deep culling in herds. Calves were being weaned early due to the dry conditions. A fourth cutting of alfalfa was underway in irrigated fields. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Oct 19, 2022

The Ursus Fire was reported on 8/25/2022 and confirmed on 8/31/2022. It is burning on the south side of Rapid Creek at the base of Ursus Hill, approximately 1.5 miles up the Rapid Creek drainage. The fire is located in the Bob Marshall Wilderness on the Spotted Bear Ranger District. The Ursus Fire originally showed primary growth to the east, but it has since reached the 2012 Elbow Pass burn scar which should act as a buffer to slow the spread of the fire in that direction. It was originally reported that the fire crossed the Continental Divide on the Helena-Lewis & Clark National Forest near Observation Pass, but a reconnaissance flight from the Rocky Mountain Ranger District on 9/7/2022 determined there was no observable fire east of the divide. As of 10/04/2022, no significant observable growth has been detected. A point/zone protection strategy will be implemented by the Spotted Bear Ranger District to protect both the Danaher and Basin Administrative Cabin sites, and to...

The Dean Creek Fire was detected on August 14th. It is burning in the Dean Creek drainage, located in the Bob Marshall Wilderness on the Spotted Bear Ranger District. The fire is burning on the lower third of the southeasterly facing slope approximately three miles up drainage from the junction with Spotted Bear River. The fire is currently most active on the southwest corner of the fire. As of 10/04/2022, no significant observable growth has been detected. The Spotted Bear Ranger District Wildland Fire Module (WFM) was inserted into the Pentagon Cabin Administrative site to conduct structure protection operations. As of the afternoon of 08/17/2022, the module completed wrapping the cabin and outlying buildings and installed hose lay and sprinklers which can be controlled by a remote-start pump. Due to high spread potential, a closure for the Dean Creek drainage is effective as of 08/19/2022. The official closure order and accompanying map has been posted. As of 10/04/2022, no...

The George Lake Fire was detected on September 6th, 2022. It is burning on the bottom of the slope at the northeast end of George Lake, located in the Bob Marshall Wilderness on the Spotted Bear Ranger District. As of 9/12/2022, the fire was 625 acres; heavy wide-spread smoke across the area affected the temperature and amount of solar radiation reaching the fire. As of 10/04/2022, no significant observable growth has been detected. The Spotted Bear Ranger District will continue to monitor the fire with reconnaissance and Infrared (IR) Mapping flights as resources allow. Due to the rocky terrain and lack of available fuels, no other actions are planned at this time. A point protection strategy will be implemented to protect values at risk should conditions change. An official closure order has been posted effective 9/9/2022. As of 10/04/2022, no additional updates will be made regarding the George Lake Fire unless significant new activity is

Many Suffolk County growers were able to water their crops adequately during the hot, droughty summer, but noted that production costs were much higher due to the need to irrigate heavily. Diesel and fertilizer, for instance, were much more expensive. One farmer raised his prices 15% to cover the extra costs. Some pumpkin varieties did not produce as much fruit this year. Blackberries were flowering during the high heat and did not get pollinated. The dry weather kept disease pressure low. Wine grapes thrived during the hot, dry summer and produced excellent grapes. The Suffolk Times (Mattituck, N.Y.), Oct 18, 2022

Barges remained stuck in Mississippi River ports from Minnesota to Mississippi and needed higher water to move. There were 150 barges loaded to regular depths with corn and soybeans at Greenville, Miss., that were unable to move out of the harbor or down river. Farmers were taking a financial hit as drought affects prices that they are getting for their grain, especially if they didn’t have anywhere to store the grain. Forecasters indicated that the river may not rise to safely navigable levels until late October or maybe the first week of November. Mississippi Public Broadcasting (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 19, 2022