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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... Widespread dry, occasionally breezy surface conditions should prevail across much of the Plains states tomorrow/Tuesday as a surface cyclone tracks eastward across the central MS Valley. While such conditions would necessitate Elevated highlights, the dampening of fuels by preceding rainfall suggests that fire-weather highlights are unwarranted this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

 The Nakia Creek Fire, located 9 miles northeast of Camas WA in Clark County, and is burning in the Larch Block of the Yacolt Burn State Forest. The fire spread predominantly on Washington Department of Natural Resources lands southeast of Larch Mountain between Four Corners to the northwest, Jones and Boulder creeks to the south, and the L-1200 Rd to the east and northeast. The nearest communities are Fern Prairie, Battle Ground, Camas, and Washougal.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and the middle/upper Texas Coast through tonight. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, although a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex... A semi-organized but not overly intense squall line continues to progress eastward from near/east of I-35 across east-central Oklahoma and North Texas. Locally severe storms will remain a possibility with this convective line in the presence of strong/largely unidirectional deep-layer shear and modest lapse rates/buoyancy. Thinking remains that this regional severe threat this afternoon could remain a bit isolated/episodic across eastern Oklahoma/north Texas. A somewhat more organized/sustained severe risk should evolve by early evening, initially across central Texas and into eastern/south-central Texas tonight. This will be as the base of the southern Rockies upper trough ejects eastward and trends toward a more neutral tilt, with surface wave development/cyclogenesis expected from northwest Texas late this afternoon east-northeastward along the Red River vicinity and Ozarks late tonight. This scenario should allow for the southwest flank of the residual squall line/outflow to reinvigorate across central/east-central Texas by early evening, and for new development to occur near the east/southeastward-accelerating cold front tonight. Steady low-level moistening and modest cooling aloft could support upwards of 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE this evening across central/east Texas. Increasingly large/modestly curved hodographs may yield the possibility of a few semi-discrete supercells ahead of or in the early developmental stages of the squall line, with evolving bowing segments otherwise likely. A couple of tornadoes may occur aside from possible wind damage. Given the large-scale trends and expected persistence of weak warm-sector buoyancy, at least some severe risk is expected to persist eastward through the late night/early Tuesday morning across far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana/possibly southern Arkansas, even if on just an isolated/marginal basis overnight. ...Northwest Texas/Low Rolling Plains... A spatially narrow/residual corridor of low-level moisture and buoyancy may be sufficient for the development of some low-topped stronger storms late this afternoon/early evening as lapse rates steepen. A few instances of strong thunderstorm winds and/or hail could occur. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/24/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the previous outlook. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will progress across the Plains states today, preceded by widespread showers and thunderstorms. Appreciable rainfall accumulations should limit significant, widespread wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Illinois American Water temporarily switched from using the Ohio River as its source water to groundwater for Cairo, Illinois as the Ohio River is at a historically low level. The groundwater contains more minerals than surface water. WPSD 6 (Paducah, Ky.), Oct 17, 2022

The US Army Corps of Engineers is constructing a temporary 1,500-foot-wide underwater levee in the Mississippi River to prevent saltwater from pushing up the river amid record-low river levels and flow rates. Sediment will be dredged from the river and piled up near Myrtle Grove, Louisiana, downstream from New Orleans, to make a sill to dam the denser saltwater downstream. When the river’s flow is less than 300,000 cubic feet per second, there is insufficient force to keep the saltwater from creeping upstream. The flow of the Mississippi River has been around or below 200,000 cubic feet per second for more than a week, according to data from the US Geological Survey. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), Oct 18, 2022

Drought in Kentucky has hindered fall pasture forage growth, leading farmers to feed hay earlier than usual. The drought-stressed pastures will likely have plant loss, which will be felt in the next growing season. After the dry weather in June, pastures did have some regrowth, so farmers do have some hay available. “The river hasn’t been this low since the 1980s, maybe longer,” said Chad Lee, director of the UK Grain and Forage Center of Excellence. “This has already hurt the local price for soybeans. On Oct. 17, there were 51 barges parked at Hickman, Kentucky, while crews dredged the riverbed to clear debris so they could pass.” “Grain farmers are taking up to $1 per bushel off of the soybean price to ‘pay’ for barges. Some are instead stockpiling soybeans to wait until barge prices drop. But, if you’re a farmer without on-farm storage, you have to take the cut.” The London Sentinel Echo (Ky.), Oct 23, 2022

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 23 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 23 17:49:02 UTC 2022.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231743
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located over west-central mainland Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 104.4W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF THE CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings south of San Blas. The Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Escuinapa has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over west-central Mexico through this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening and dissipate tonight or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland through portions of west-central Mexico through late afternoon or early evening. Wind speeds atop hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of west-central Mexico: Upper coast of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Southeastern Sinaloa, southern Durango into southwestern Zacatecas: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of Mexico within the warning area should gradually subside this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2022 17:43:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2022 15:22:23 GMT

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX...EAST TX/FAR WESTERN LA...AND MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas eastward to the Arklatex, east Texas, far western Louisiana and middle/upper Texas Coast Monday evening and overnight. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with these storms, though a tornado or two is also possible. ...Synopsis... A complex upper pattern evolution is anticipated on Monday as a large-scale upper trough gradually moves eastward across the Plains. Two shortwave troughs embedded within the larger-scale trough will focus severe thunderstorm potential on Monday. The first shortwave trough will be located over the northern Plains early in the period, and the other over the Southwest. The northern Plains shortwave is expected to quickly lift northeast during the morning, while the Southwest shortwave moves eastward from the Four Corners and into the southern Plains during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Another weak shortwave impulse over northern Mexico will precede the Southwest shortwave across TX, while the remnants of Hurricane Roslyn move quickly northeastward along the TX Coast into the Lower MS Valley. An occluded surface low will be located over eastern ND Monday morning, with an occluded front extending southeastward to a triple point over central MN. A cold front will then extend southwestward from this triple point through the Lower MO Valley into central OK. The front is expected to progress gradually eastward throughout day, with the exception being the southern extent of the front in TX, which will only make minor eastward progress until Monday evening when stronger surface cyclogenesis occurs along the Red River. This surface low will then shift east/northeast into AR overnight, as the shortwave upper trough ejects eastward and the front surges eastward toward the Sabine Valley and TX coast. ...Northwest MN... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Monday morning near the surface low and along the northeastward advancing front. Forecast guidance suggest MLCAPE as high as 750 J/kg will be present amid strong vertical shear. Fast storm motion coupled with strong low/mid-level flow and modest instability could support isolated strong gusts for a couple hours Monday morning before convection lifts north into Manitoba/western Ontario. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing in the vicinity of the front from southeast KS across central OK and into southwest TX. Buoyancy will be tempered by relatively warm mid-level temperatures but moderate mid-level flow with a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet could still result in a few updrafts capable of hail and/or strong downdrafts. The front will progress eastward across KS/MO/OK during through the afternoon/evening, but become more diffuse across TX as a surface low develops across western North TX during the afternoon. The surface low should develop eastward along the Red River and into AR during the evening and overnight hours, allowing the TX portion of the cold front to surge eastward while the upper shortwave trough ejects eastward into the Plains. This will support additional thunderstorm development along the front as large-scale ascent increases within a moist and moderately unstable airmass. Linear segments will support mainly damaging gusts. However, enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodograph suggest some tornado potential will exist near the front and surface low, where low-level vorticity will be maximized. ..Leitman.. 10/23/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, a strong western US trough will intensify further as an 80-90 kt mid-level jet ejects eastward across the southern and central Rockies over the Plains. The strong mid-level flow will aid in the development of a sub-990 mb lee low and very strong surface wind fields over much of the central US. With widespread drought across the Plains, the strong winds and dry/warm conditions will support widespread critical fire weather concerns. ...Central and southern Plains... As the strong area of low pressure continues to deepen and eject northeastward, low-level southwesterly pressure gradients will intensify over much of the Plains. A broad area of sustained 25-40 mph winds, with gusts upwards of 50 mph, will be possible through the afternoon. Coincident with diurnal heating, areas of low to critical RH (15-30%) are expected through the afternoon. RH will be lowest across the High Plains west of the lee trough, with values near or above 30% likely farther east. In addition, fuels remain highly receptive to fire spread due to ongoing drought over all of the Plains with ERCs in the 90th+ percentile. The overlap of highly receptive fuels, strong winds and lower RH lends high confidence to sustained elevated and some critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A few hours of localized extremely critical conditions will also be possible mainly across portions of western KS and far eastern CO where the strongest winds are expected. While mid-level cloud cover may reduce afternoon mixing, strong downslope flow and warm temperatures may still support a few pockets of sub 10% RH and wind gusts greater than 50 mph. The favorable meteorological and fuel conditions may support rapid wind-driven fire spread. ...California... Along the backside of the trough, strong mid-level flow will support gusty surface winds through the Central Valley and coastal mountains. While fuels remain spotty, a few hours of lower humidity and gusty winds may support locally elevated fire weather conditions. Confidence remains too low to introduce areas of concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The 8 Road Fire was reported on October 15, 2022 at about 4 p.m. and is burning on Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR) land in timber and brush of the Elbe Hills State Forest, about 4 miles east of Eatonville. Command of the incident was returned to DNR on Friday, October 21. The cause is under

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are possible from parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest late this afternoon and tonight. ...Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A prominent western states upper trough continues to evolve/amplify over the Rockies and Four Corners, with a strong mid/upper-level jet expected to develop northeastward from Arizona/New Mexico across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Lee-side cyclogenesis will continue to occur initially across the central Plains while transitioning northeastward toward the eastern Dakotas tonight as a cold front begins to accelerate eastward across the central Plains/Upper Midwest. Modest autumnal low-level moisture will continue to stream northward and become increasing established within the warm sector ahead of the cold front, and more so, the preceding dryline across the central/southern Plains, although mixing (and some possible surface dewpoint reduction) will also occur as the boundary layer warms through peak heating. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the combined cold front/dryline as early as late afternoon, but more so toward/after sunset. Any surface-based thunderstorms will have the potential for isolated severe hail and wind gusts, given supercell-favorable vertical shear and fast storm motion atop a residually well-mixed warm-sector boundary layer. An increasing low-level jet (50-70 kt after 00Z) will enlarge low-level hodographs, with 30-35 kt shear-vector magnitudes in the effective-inflow layer, and effective SRH potentially in the 300-500 m2/s2 range. ...West-central/northwest Texas to southwest Oklahoma... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight across this region, as the combined fronts overtake the dryline and impinge on increasing deep-layer moisture. Neither middle nor upper-level lapse rates are expected to be particularly steep. However, with increasing low-level moisture, and strengthening deep shear, an organizing band of convection may strengthen enough to produce a few embedded storms capable of isolated hail and/or wind gusts near severe limits. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 10/23/2022 Read more

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231453 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Satellite imagery indicated that Roslyn made landfall earlier this morning around 1120 UTC near Santa Cruz in the Mexican state of Nayarit. The maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure were estimated to be 105 kt and 958 mb, respectively. An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 71 kt and a gust of 108 kt within the past hour or so. The hurricane has moved farther inland and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt based on a standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to continue to occur today as Roslyn interacts with the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico and encounters strengthening vertical wind shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon and dissipate tonight or early Monday, if not sooner. Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should continue to accelerate across west-central Mexico towards the north-northeast for the next day or so along the northwest periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. A 24 hour position has been forecast for the sake of continuity, though it is expected that the low-level circulation will have dissipated by then. Key Messages: 1. Damaging winds will spread inland along the track of Roslyn over west-central mainland Mexico through late this afternoon. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 22.8N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 231452 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 231450 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUNTA MITA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS WELL AS THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 105.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 the center of Roslyn was located near 23.8, -104.4 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.