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No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 22 17:45:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 22 17:45:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are possible from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Additional isolated severe thunderstorms may produce strong gusts and hail across parts of the southern Plains early Monday morning. ...Central Plains...Lower/Mid MO Valley...Upper Midwest... A strong large-scale upper trough will shift east from the western U.S. toward the Plains on Sunday. An embedded shortwave trough within this larger-scale flow will focus thunderstorm potential across parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An intense 50-70 kt southwesterly 850-700 mb low-level jet oriented from the southern Plains to southwest IA during the afternoon will spread northeast toward the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity overnight. Surface cyclogenesis will occur as a low lifts north/northeast from NE toward northwest MN/northeast ND by Monday morning. Moderate southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states into the Upper Midwest, where an antecedent dry airmass will be in place early Sunday. Forecast guidance continues to vary regarding surface dewpoints, with differences of around 5-8 deg F by late afternoon/evening. There is also disparity in timing/progression of the surface cold front, lending to further uncertainty regarding where convective initiation will occur. Despite questionable moisture quality and frontal position, conditional severe potential will exist from central/eastern KS into MN, aided by strong large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting trough and contributing surface cold front, coupled with robust vertical shear. Given the expected intense background flow/low-level jet, strong gusts will be possible with even modest convection, but especially so with any clusters/line segments that may develop. ...Southern Plains... A southern stream shortwave moving across western Mexico will merge with the base of the large-scale trough approaching the southern Rockies. Increasing midlevel moisture and low-level warm advection ahead of the surface front draped across western TX will support late-period thunderstorm development across parts of northwest TX into southern OK. MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg coupled with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized updrafts. Isolated strong gusts and small hail could accompany this activity early Monday morning, and a Marginal risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 10/22/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Discussion... Significant amplification of an upper-level trough will occur over the Great Basin/Rockies through tonight. Despite limited autumnal moisture, ample forcing for ascent and steepening lapse rates will lead to isolated thunderstorms, particularly across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners states later this afternoon and evening. While some stronger convectively related wind gusts could occur, the potential for severe thunderstorms will remain low. Isolated thunderstorms will also remain possible today along the coastal Pacific Northwest, and could also occur late tonight across coastal North Carolina (but more so in the offshore Atlantic). ..Guyer/Dean.. 10/22/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z A few minor adjustments to the outlook in Oklahoma and western North Texas based on the latest guidance and Fridays fire activity. The forecast elsewhere remains unchanged. ..Wendt.. 10/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening area of low pressure across the western US, strong southwesterly surface winds are expected across the Central and High Plains. Given the increase in winds, dry air mass, and receptive fuels, an area of Elevated fire weather conditions is expected on Saturday. ...Central and High Plains... Southwesterly winds around 15-20 mph along with afternoon minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent will be possible across portions of western Nebraska southward into eastern Colorado and southern Kansas/west-central Oklahoma. Fuels across the aforementioned region are receptive, with ERCs above the 95th percentile. Similar weather conditions can be expected across the Texas Panhandle, but recent rainfall has led to improvement in fuels and precludes the need for an Elevated area. ...Southern California and Southern Nevada... Recent model runs indicate that sustained winds could approach as high as 20-30 mph across portions of the low deserts of southern California and southern Nevada. Relative humidity will be marginal with a few stations near-critical briefly. Due to the localized threat area and lack of more robust fuels, an Elevated or Critical area was not supported. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221440 TCDEP4 Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of a cold central dense overcast. Given the rate of intensification, the actual intensity is a bit of a moving target. However, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are currently in the 105-115 kt range, and based on the latest CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Roslyn. The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 330/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous advisory. Roslyn is expected to continue recurving around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The track guidance continues to indicate that the hurricane will pass just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, tonight, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall, Roslyn or its remnants are expected to accelerate toward the northeast over northern Mexico. The new forecast track has mainly noise-level adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening during the next 6-12 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Roslyn to strengthen some more during that time. After that, increasing southwesterly vertical shear and land interaction should cause some weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidentals. The intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate soon thereafter. However, both of these could occur earlier than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 18.0N 106.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 221440 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 84(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 52(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 25(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 34 X 17(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MAZATLAN 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 88(88) 7(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAN BLAS 50 X 49(49) 21(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SAN BLAS 64 X 20(20) 22(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) P VALLARTA 34 3 83(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) P VALLARTA 50 X 35(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) P VALLARTA 64 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MANZANILLO 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221439 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022 1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO * LAS ISLAS MARIAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO * NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Rivers are low across Iowa, showing more rocks and sand bars than water. In Ottumwa, the Army Corps of Engineers river gauge showed .08 of feet of water on the Des Moines River, as of Oct. 10. “So right now we’re using all Des Moines river water for community water supply,” stated the general manager of the Ottumwa Water Works. “I know the river looks really really low right now but we obviously have a pool of water behind us because of the dam historically we have flows like this for extended periods of time.” The Red Rock Dam was releasing 300 cubic feet per second, which is enough for Ottumwa. But the low flow did cause the hydroelectric plant to close, dropping revenue from electricity sales. They budgeted to receive about $450,000 for the year, but were at a little over $300,000 at the present. WHO-TV NBC 13 Des Moines (Iowa), Oct 10, 2022

The flashboards on the Des Moines River were put up in the summer and will remain up through the winter to ensure adequate water supplies at the Des Moines River intake and pumping facility. WHO-TV NBC 13 Des Moines (Iowa), Oct. 11, 2022 The level of the Raccoon River continued to fall, which is the primary water source for Des Moines. Officials with Des Moines Water Works were monitoring the river and anticipate needing to put up the flashboards across a low-head dam next week to keep drawing water from the river. This will the third consecutive year that the measure was needed. Prior to the last three years, the flashboards were last used in 2013, which was also the third of three consecutive years that the boards were used. Des Moines Register (Iowa), Aug. 6, 2022

Estimated Acres: 444Cause:  LightningTotal Personnel:  1 Resources: Personnel assigned to the Bolt Creek Fire are monitoring and prepared to respond if

 NOTICE: This will be the last update provided by the Southeast Washington Type 3 IMT   HIGHLIGHTS:  Command will transfer to a Type 4 Team from the Washington Department of Natural Resources at 6am Saturday. No further updates available on inciweb and Facebook pages after 6pm tonight.

Six Rivers Lightning ComplexSeptember 30, 2022 UPDATE The Six Rivers Lightning Complex is currently 41,596 acres with 97% containment and 75 personnel assigned to the incident.CURRENT SITUATION Heavy equipment operators, fire crews and patrols are finishing the last projects on the Ammon and Campbell fires. To ensure roadside safety this upcoming winter, crews are currently working to remove trees that pose a potential threat of falling over roadways and critical infrastructure. Pockets of unburned fuel in the interior will continue to smolder and residents may see small smoke outputs. Crews will continue to patrol the fire perimeters. The incident management team have vacated Veterans Park and is back open for the public to enjoy. Some personnel are still occupying the Veterans Hall. UPDATED FOREST ORDER: The new Forest order NO. 22-10-08 Six Rivers Lightning Complex supersedes the previous Forest order NO. 22-10-07. This Order is effective from October 1st, 2022 through October...

The fire is being managed by a local Type 4 incident management organization.  No notable fire activity has taken place on the fire for over two weeks.  Fire managers continue to patrol the fire area.  No new IR imagery has been taken since September 29 as the need has not existed - map highlight to the right is the latest of the fire area.A new closure for the fire was implemented on September 26 and is expected to be terminated with the in-coming weather system.  The majority of the area is open for public use except the Willow Creek and Jeanette Creek Trails, and the Crystal Mountain and Willow Creek Roads remain closed. The BLM terminated their closure order for the lower portion of the Marshall Mountain Mining District as well.  The trial and road closure order that is in effect as of September 26, can be viewed at this link:  Tenmile ClosurePrevious Information:While parts of the fire received a dusting of snow on Thursday, September 29, the warm and dry weather...

Aerial recon of the fire took place on October 19 with no hot spots remaining.  The fire is not expected to grow and a season ending weather event will move this fire to a contained/out status.No area or trail closures are in effect for this fire.  Backcountry users are responsible for knowing and preparing for the hazards involved with entering an active fire area.The fire is at 2,930 acres. Containment of the fire is at 40%, which meets the containment goals for the portion of this fire located outside of the Wilderness Area.  This fire is now in patrol status.The Porphyry Fire started within the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness Area and is a fire start from the August 11th thunderstorms that passed over the Payette National Forest.  On August 18, the fire moved to the west and out of the Wilderness Area. This fire is under a partial Suppression Strategy with Point/Zone Protection being conducted at noted values at risk and containment line being constructed at...

Aerial recon of the fire took place on October 19 and some hot spots remain interior to the fire perimeter with smoke showing.  The fire is not expected to grow and a season ending weather event will move this fire to a contained/out status.No area or trail closures are in effect for this fire. The Patrol Point Fire is at 16,561 acres.  The fire is approximately 7.5 river miles to the west of the Corn Creek Boat Ramp. Structure protection measures were out in place at lower Chamberlain bridge, Stub Cabin, Horse Creek pack bridge, and Butts Creek Point historic lookout - all of which have been removed as the threat diminished. The closure that was in effect is now lifted.  Backcountry users are responsible for knowing and preparing for the hazards involved with entering an active fire area and should plan more than one travel route to escape approaching fire, if needed.The Patrol Point fire is in a remote location with steep and rocky terrain within the Frank Church River of No...

Aerial recon of the fire took place on October 19 and some hot spots remain interior to the fire perimeter with smoke showing.  The fire is not expected to grow and a season ending weather event will move this fire to a contained/out status.No area or trail closures are in effect for this fire.  The fire is at 9,501 acres.  The last IR imagery for the fire was taken on September 29 and showed very few hot spots within the fire's perimeter.Structure protection has been removed from Root Ranch and the Cold Meadows Guard

Aerial recon of the fire took place on October 19 and some hot spots remain interior to the fire perimeter with smoke showing.  The fire is not expected to grow and a season ending weather event will move this fire to a contained/out status.  The fire is at 900 acres now.This fire is located in the Bear Creek drainage, which is a subdrainage off the Little Five Mile Creek approximately 5 miles upriver on the Salmon River from its confluence with the South Fork of the Salmon.No area or trail closures are in effect for this fire. This fire is within the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness and is being managed to meet resource objectives with a point protection strategy to protect identified private and administrative values. The nearest values at risk are the private structures at Five Mile Bar and Payette National Forest Fire Management Officers is in close contact with the residence.The Lemhi fire grew to around 700 acres over several days at the end of September and...

 Prescribed Burn Operations to Begin Near Strawberry  SONORA, CALIF. (October 20,2022) – Fire personnel with the Stanislaus National Forest’s Mi-Wok/Summit Ranger District will conduct prescribed burn operations near the town of Strawberry, primarily between Cold Springs and Leland Meadows. Ignition of the prescribed burn is expected to begin the last week of October and will continue for two to three weeks as long as conditions allow. Burning is contingent on weather, fuel moisture, and air quality. All burning is monitored and conducted in accordance with state and county air quality guidelines. And closely coordinated with local county air quality control districts. Characterized as an understory burn - a prescribed fire ignited under the forest canopy that focuses on the consumption of surface fuels but not the overstory vegetation - prescribed low-intensity fires enhances wildlife habitat, protects and maintains water quality and soil productivity, improves forest ecosystem...

The fire closure order has been terminated.  Road, trails and the area within the fire is open for public use.  Be aware that some roads are closed annually for resource protection and remain closed now.Use caution when in the area! Watch for falling trees. Even if the tree looks robust, it might be at risk of falling because of damaged root systems and fire-loosened soils. As the years pass, dead root systems rot and the likelihood of the tree falling increases. Watch for falling branches as well. Look up often. Take note of fire-weakened trees, snags and overhead dangling branches. Do not sit down and take a break under a fire-weakened or dead tree. Windy days are especially dangerous. Don’t go out in a burn area if it’s forecast to be windy. Leave the area immediately if the wind picks up and there are hazards around you. Don’t make camp below burned trees. Rainy weather is also dangerous. Wind often accompanies rain. And even if it’s just rainy, the chances of...