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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z Only minor changes were made to the Elevated highlights based on the latest observational data. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift southeastward from southern Colorado to the southern Plains today. West of this trough, moderate northwesterly flow will be present across the Southwest. This will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer across southeast New Mexico with a few hours of elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions, before a southward-surging cold front arrives in the area with much colder temperatures. Elsewhere, cool and or moist conditions will preclude fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Cheyenne Bottoms wetlands is enduring its worst drought in the past decade. Local wildlife officials claim that the conditions can be beneficial for animals at the wetlands and wildlife management. The lack of rain has allowed workers to complete the pool renovation work. Vegetation has the opportunity to reestablish itself. Drought allows the land time to readjust and go through natural processes that are necessary for Cheyenne Bottoms. Soils can consolidate, and the wind can whisk away excess silt. KSNT-TV NBC 27 Topeka (Kan.), April 13, 2023

Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen issued an executive order banning all open fires from April 13 through April 16. The need for the ban will be reassessed. News Channel Nebraska (Nebraska City, Neb.), April 13, 2023

The winter wheat crop in the Texas Panhandle is a complete failure for lack of moisture. One farmer attested that the little dryland wheat that did come up on his Ochiltree County farm died in December, due to a combination of drought and cold temperatures. The farmer does not intend to plant any dryland cotton this year. Irrigated crops have required more water than usual. A Lipscomb County farmer noted the dry conditions and blowing dust. He also shared a U.S. Drought Monitor map with his followers on Instagram and urged them to pray for rain from Kansas to Texas. SF | Successful Farming Online (Des Moines, Iowa), April 14, 2023

The City of Marco Island will allow irrigation just twice weekly through Aug. 1 to conserve water. Freshwater canal levels across Cape Coral are extremely low. FOX4Now (Cape Coral, Fla.), April 11, 2023 Irrigation restrictions took effect for the city of Marco Island through the end of August. Outdoor watering will be allowed just twice weekly rather than thrice. FOX4Now (Cape Coral, Fla.), April 25, 2023

Minimal moisture and windy conditions in northeast and east central Colorado continued to deteriorate winter wheat and pasture conditions. Wind gusts above 40 miles per hour were prevalent in northeastern counties last week. Most counties remained dry, but an unexpected snow event brought moisture to the foothills and the Denver Metro area. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 26, 2023 Minimal moisture and windy conditions in northeastern and east central Colorado remained an issue for winter wheat and pasture conditions. Most counties remained dry, but isolated moisture was received around the Denver Metro area, as well as portions of Arapahoe and Elbert Counties. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 18, 2023 Blowing topsoil in northeast and east central Colorado remained an issue for winter wheat and pastures due to windy conditions. Most counties remained dry, but isolated moisture was received around the Palmer Divide. Pastures remained slow to green up and lack of consistent moisture was a concern. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 12, 2023

Warm weather has progressed green up, but winter wheat growth is behind normal. In the San Luis Valley, moisture conditions worsened and much of the district is abnormally dry according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Fieldwork continued and seed potato planting started last week. Barley planting progressed quickly last week among dry conditions, but still fell behind the 5-year average. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 26, 2023 San Luis Valley pastures remained slow to green up and lack of consistent moisture was a concern. Lack of moisture and cold soil temperatures continued to hinder pasture growth. No measurable moisture has been received since March and high winds remained an issue. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 18, 2023 No moisture was received in the San Luis Valley last week and high winds remained an issue. Some producers were replanting barley. Fieldwork continued ahead of potato planting, but soil temperatures remained cold. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 12, 2023

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0166 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 166 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 252130Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Oklahoma Panhandle Northwest Texas and Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few supercells should develop east-southeast across the Panhandles into northwest Texas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Guymon OK to 65 miles southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Grams Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 25 21:29:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0614 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...PARTS OF SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma...western North Texas...Parts of South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252043Z - 252245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Observational trends in southwest Oklahoma into parts of the South Plains suggest increased confidence in storm development this afternoon. Large/very-large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. A watch is possible depending on convective trends over the next two hours. DISCUSSION...While cloud cover has been present much of the day in the western North Texas vicinity, some erosion has occurred along/near the warm front and near the Snyder, TX vicinity this afternoon. This has allowed temperatures to warm more than guidance had been suggesting. Recent visible satellite trends in southwest Oklahoma show deepening cumulus along the warm front near Altus. With some high resolution guidance (including the WoFS) indicating potential storm development, there is increased confidence in the potential for a supercell or two to develop. MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 40 kts will support a threat for large/very-large hail as well as damaging wind gusts. Farther south, near Snyder, there is less confidence in development. However, temperatures will continue to warm and the West Texas Mesonet data available shows convergence along the differential heating boundary. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and damaging winds would exist here as well. Additional supercells are also possible as the dryline sharpens farther to the west. The current environment would suggest the tornado threat would remain relatively low this afternoon. Should discrete activity be sustained into early evening, some increase in tornado potential would occur with the strengthening of the low-level jet. A watch is possible this afternoon depending on convective trends over the next 1-2 hours. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32610116 33130144 33860165 34890151 35180062 35150002 35039925 34769885 33939871 32409991 32290042 32330076 32610116 Read more

MD 0613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 252001Z - 252200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms may produce isolated large hail and damaging winds. Limited moisture/buoyancy should keep storm intensity marginal. A watch appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...As the upper-level trough approaches the southern High Plains this afternoon, convection along a surface trough/developing dryline has continued to slowly deepen. Moisture is very limited within the region as dewpoints are in the upper 30s F to mid 40s F. Lapse rates at low/mid-levels are steep enough to support isolated large hail and damaging winds despite the modest MLCAPE (near 500 J/kg). Storm intensity is expected to remain marginal until this activity encounters greater low-level moisture to the east. A watch is not currently expected. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34230377 37030429 37610401 37690312 36170214 35180196 34400256 34030325 34230377 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible mainly late this afternoon into tonight over parts of the southern Plains, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Recent surface analysis reveals a developing lee low over northeast NM, with a strengthening warm front extending southeastward across the OK/TX Panhandles and into southwest OK then eastward along the Red River. Convective initiation has already occurred in the vicinity of the lee low, with these storms expected to move eastward in the TX/OK Panhandles over the next few hours. Low-level moisture is meager but cold temperatures aloft will still support modest buoyancy and a few stronger storms. Mid 50s dewpoints have reached southwest OK, with the expectation that convective initiation will eventually occur in this region this afternoon/evening. Surface temperatures are cool, but mid-level lapse rates are steep enough to support isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, initiation farther south in southwest TX remain uncertain due to strong capping. The cloud cover has now dissipated and the surface temperature at SJT has climbed to 78, which is 6 degrees warmer than recent RAP forecast soundings. Additional warming is likely, but the boundary layer will further mix as well. Given the EML and moderate mid-level flow, a conditional risk for very large hail exists. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to continue across FL for the next few hours until nocturnal stabilization sets in. Environmental conditions support storms capable of isolated hail and/or a few stronger gusts. Refer to MCD #612 for additional information. ..Mosier.. 04/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023/ ...Southern Plains... An upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin and central Rockies this morning will advance south-southeastward towards the Four Corners by this evening, and will eventually reach the southern High Plains late tonight. A subtle, southern-stream perturbation over northern Mexico will move eastward across west/central TX through the day. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should occur across eastern NM this afternoon/evening. Low-level moisture, characterized by generally low 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints, will continue streaming northward today along/south of a warm front and east of a dryline. Convective potential and evolution across the warm sector this afternoon through tonight remains unclear owing to weak/nebulous large-scale ascent. Still, the best signal for thunderstorm initiation appears to be across the higher terrain of southeastern CO and northeastern NM this afternoon with weak low-level upslope flow occurring and ascent from the approaching upper trough. This activity should spread generally southeastward across the OK/TX Panhandles and eventually northwest TX. Although low-level moisture will remain rather limited, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should prove sufficient for thunderstorm organization, including the potential for multiple supercells posing a threat for mainly large hail. Confidence in greater coverage of intense convection has increased enough to expand the Slight Risk farther northwest into parts of the TX Panhandle. These thunderstorms should continue east-southeastward towards northwest TX and southwestern OK this evening/tonight. The activity in OK will probably tend to become elevated to the north of the warm front, but it may still pose some threat for hail. Gusty winds will be possible with any clusters that can persist with eastward extent tonight from northwest into central TX. The prospect for convective initiation along the dryline this afternoon from northwest to central TX still appears rather conditional, as a pronounced cap noted on 12Z soundings from MAF and DRT will be slow to erode and potentially difficult to breach. Widespread low-level cloud cover noted on morning visible satellite imagery east of the dryline will need to mix out to some extent to generate sufficient diurnal heating to support parcels being lifted near/to their LFCs. A somewhat better chance for surface-based convective development may be across northwest into western north TX, where some cloud breaks and filtered daytime heating have already been observed. If thunderstorms can form and be sustained across this region, they will likely be supercells and pose a threat for large to very large hail initially given the presence of moderate instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient effective bulk shear. As a southerly low-level jet modestly strengthens this evening, there may also be a narrow, 2-4 hour window (from roughly 22-02Z) for a couple of tornadoes with any supercell that can remain surface based. The possibility of open warm sector development this afternoon also remains apparent over portions of coastal/southeast TX. If this activity forms, it would likely be tied to weak low-level warm advection and daytime heating on the southern fringe of persistent cloud cover. Any thunderstorms that can persist in this regime may pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Based on signals in 12Z guidance on where this convection may develop, have expanded the Slight Risk a little southeastward towards the middle TX Coast. ...Florida... Generally zonal flow aloft will persist over the FL Peninsula today. With robust diurnal heating expected, scattered thunderstorms should once again develop along both the Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea breezes this afternoon, and to the south of a remnant front draped across the north/central FL Peninsula. While low-level winds will remain weak, strengthening west-southwesterly flow at mid/upper levels should support around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization, including the potential for a mix of multicells and perhaps marginal supercell structures. With seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present, some of these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible mainly late this afternoon into tonight over parts of the southern Plains, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... Recent surface analysis reveals a developing lee low over northeast NM, with a strengthening warm front extending southeastward across the OK/TX Panhandles and into southwest OK then eastward along the Red River. Convective initiation has already occurred in the vicinity of the lee low, with these storms expected to move eastward in the TX/OK Panhandles over the next few hours. Low-level moisture is meager but cold temperatures aloft will still support modest buoyancy and a few stronger storms. Mid 50s dewpoints have reached southwest OK, with the expectation that convective initiation will eventually occur in this region this afternoon/evening. Surface temperatures are cool, but mid-level lapse rates are steep enough to support isolated severe thunderstorms capable of hail. As mentioned in the previous outlook, initiation farther south in southwest TX remain uncertain due to strong capping. The cloud cover has now dissipated and the surface temperature at SJT has climbed to 78, which is 6 degrees warmer than recent RAP forecast soundings. Additional warming is likely, but the boundary layer will further mix as well. Given the EML and moderate mid-level flow, a conditional risk for very large hail exists. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to continue across FL for the next few hours until nocturnal stabilization sets in. Environmental conditions support storms capable of isolated hail and/or a few stronger gusts. Refer to MCD #612 for additional information. ..Mosier.. 04/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023/ ...Southern Plains... An upper trough/low centered over the Great Basin and central Rockies this morning will advance south-southeastward towards the Four Corners by this evening, and will eventually reach the southern High Plains late tonight. A subtle, southern-stream perturbation over northern Mexico will move eastward across west/central TX through the day. At the surface, weak cyclogenesis should occur across eastern NM this afternoon/evening. Low-level moisture, characterized by generally low 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints, will continue streaming northward today along/south of a warm front and east of a dryline. Convective potential and evolution across the warm sector this afternoon through tonight remains unclear owing to weak/nebulous large-scale ascent. Still, the best signal for thunderstorm initiation appears to be across the higher terrain of southeastern CO and northeastern NM this afternoon with weak low-level upslope flow occurring and ascent from the approaching upper trough. This activity should spread generally southeastward across the OK/TX Panhandles and eventually northwest TX. Although low-level moisture will remain rather limited, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should prove sufficient for thunderstorm organization, including the potential for multiple supercells posing a threat for mainly large hail. Confidence in greater coverage of intense convection has increased enough to expand the Slight Risk farther northwest into parts of the TX Panhandle. These thunderstorms should continue east-southeastward towards northwest TX and southwestern OK this evening/tonight. The activity in OK will probably tend to become elevated to the north of the warm front, but it may still pose some threat for hail. Gusty winds will be possible with any clusters that can persist with eastward extent tonight from northwest into central TX. The prospect for convective initiation along the dryline this afternoon from northwest to central TX still appears rather conditional, as a pronounced cap noted on 12Z soundings from MAF and DRT will be slow to erode and potentially difficult to breach. Widespread low-level cloud cover noted on morning visible satellite imagery east of the dryline will need to mix out to some extent to generate sufficient diurnal heating to support parcels being lifted near/to their LFCs. A somewhat better chance for surface-based convective development may be across northwest into western north TX, where some cloud breaks and filtered daytime heating have already been observed. If thunderstorms can form and be sustained across this region, they will likely be supercells and pose a threat for large to very large hail initially given the presence of moderate instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient effective bulk shear. As a southerly low-level jet modestly strengthens this evening, there may also be a narrow, 2-4 hour window (from roughly 22-02Z) for a couple of tornadoes with any supercell that can remain surface based. The possibility of open warm sector development this afternoon also remains apparent over portions of coastal/southeast TX. If this activity forms, it would likely be tied to weak low-level warm advection and daytime heating on the southern fringe of persistent cloud cover. Any thunderstorms that can persist in this regime may pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Based on signals in 12Z guidance on where this convection may develop, have expanded the Slight Risk a little southeastward towards the middle TX Coast. ...Florida... Generally zonal flow aloft will persist over the FL Peninsula today. With robust diurnal heating expected, scattered thunderstorms should once again develop along both the Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea breezes this afternoon, and to the south of a remnant front draped across the north/central FL Peninsula. While low-level winds will remain weak, strengthening west-southwesterly flow at mid/upper levels should support around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization, including the potential for a mix of multicells and perhaps marginal supercell structures. With seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present, some of these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Read more

MD 0612 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0612 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Areas affected...central portion of the FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251955Z - 252200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and localized damaging gusts are possible through 7pm EDT. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery show developing storms along the west coast sea breeze from near Ocala southward through the I-4 corridor east of Tampa Bay. KTBW and KMLB VAD data show 50-kt westerly flow at 7-8 km which is aiding in both storm venting/organization. RAP forecast soundings show around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE with relatively steep low-level lapse rates in areas not behind the cooler sea-breeze front. A few marginal supercell structures are possible with the more intense storms and large hail will be the primary risk (hail diameter 1.0 to 1.75 inches). The overall risk will be isolated in coverage and the temporal window of opportunity will likely be relegated between now (350pm EDT) and 700pm EDT. A localized damaging gust cannot be ruled out, especially with a collapsing core. ..Smith/Gleason.. 04/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27158182 27298210 28068230 28758218 29168218 29268190 29088163 28428130 27738035 27388043 27158182 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will shift into the southern Plains on Wednesday and leave much less favorable fire weather conditions in its wake. Some dry northerly flow will likely develop in the High Plains as high pressure builds south and a cold front surges southward. There will be a brief period during the afternoon where some dry and breezy northwest flow may exist across southeast New Mexico and vicinity. This will occur where heating and deep mixing can develop ahead of the cold front and some stronger mid-level flow may come toward the surface. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns will be minimal with moist fuels and/or light winds for most regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will shift into the southern Plains on Wednesday and leave much less favorable fire weather conditions in its wake. Some dry northerly flow will likely develop in the High Plains as high pressure builds south and a cold front surges southward. There will be a brief period during the afternoon where some dry and breezy northwest flow may exist across southeast New Mexico and vicinity. This will occur where heating and deep mixing can develop ahead of the cold front and some stronger mid-level flow may come toward the surface. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns will be minimal with moist fuels and/or light winds for most regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and very large hail are expected over much of northern Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered severe storms producing hail may also occur from the Florida Peninsula into central Georgia. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, and accompanying mid-level speed max, is expected to move from the southern High Plains into the southern Plains on Wednesday. This system will initially be positively titled, but should trend towards a more neutral tilt with time. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated across TX throughout the day today (Tuesday), with this moist air mass expected to remain in place as the shortwave pushes through on Wednesday. Surface low associated with the shortwave will likely begin the period over northwest TX, before then moving eastward along the warm front across north TX just ahead of the shortwave as it moves through. Dryline extending southward from this low will make some eastward progress across TX Big County and southwest TX, before likely stalling during the evening. A cold front will then sweep southward/southeastward across west TX and through much of north and central TX tomorrow evening and overnight. Severe thunderstorms are possible along the dryline across north TX, with additional strong to severe storms also possible along the cold front as it pushes through. ...Southern Plains... As discussed in the synopsis, a surface low is forecast to begin the period over the TX Big Country, before gradually moving eastward along the warm front. This warm front is expected to be quite sharp, but guidance still varies on its location tomorrow afternoon. Given that widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across OK from overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, a more southerly warm front location is currently preferred, likely in the vicinity of the Red River. As such, the greatest severe potential will likely exist from northwest TX into north TX Wednesday afternoon and evening. Here, seasonably cool mid-level temperatures atop mid 60s dewpoints will result in moderate to strong buoyancy. General expectation is for thunderstorm initiation to occur along the dryline during the early afternoon as mesoscale ascent attendant to the dryline is augmented by increasing large-scale ascent. This general expectation may be complicated by residual outflow that may be in place over north/central TX in the wake of early morning storms. However, uncertainty regarding the location and depth of any outflow limits predictability at this forecast range. Initial development will likely be supercellular, supported by increasing mid-level flow and strong deep-layer shear. Steep lapse rates will favor large to very large (i.e. greater than 2 inches in diameter) with these initial supercells. Low-level flow is expected to be relatively modest, limiting low-level shear and potentially keeping the tornado threat low. However, given the potential for interaction with residual outflow and/or the warm front, some higher threat may materialize in more confined corridors. Given previously mentioned uncertainties regarding outflow and warm front positions, will defer any increase in tornado probabilities to later outlooks. Upscale growth is anticipated after a few hours after initiation, with the resulting MCS tracking eastward/southeastward across east TX and northern LA. Marginal wind probabilities were extended into far west-central MS to account for the potential that the convective line will be in that vicinity early Thursday morning. ...GA/FL... Seasonably cold mid-level temperatures are expected across GA and FL on Wednesday, with 500-mb temperatures ranging from -14 deg C across south FL to -16 deg C over southern GA. Modest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent is also anticipated as a weak shortwave trough moves over the peninsula. This large-scale ascent in tandem with forcing along sea breeze boundaries is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm coverage. Hail and/or damaging gusts are possible with any more robust/longer-lived storms. ..Mosier.. 04/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and very large hail are expected over much of northern Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered severe storms producing hail may also occur from the Florida Peninsula into central Georgia. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream shortwave trough, and accompanying mid-level speed max, is expected to move from the southern High Plains into the southern Plains on Wednesday. This system will initially be positively titled, but should trend towards a more neutral tilt with time. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated across TX throughout the day today (Tuesday), with this moist air mass expected to remain in place as the shortwave pushes through on Wednesday. Surface low associated with the shortwave will likely begin the period over northwest TX, before then moving eastward along the warm front across north TX just ahead of the shortwave as it moves through. Dryline extending southward from this low will make some eastward progress across TX Big County and southwest TX, before likely stalling during the evening. A cold front will then sweep southward/southeastward across west TX and through much of north and central TX tomorrow evening and overnight. Severe thunderstorms are possible along the dryline across north TX, with additional strong to severe storms also possible along the cold front as it pushes through. ...Southern Plains... As discussed in the synopsis, a surface low is forecast to begin the period over the TX Big Country, before gradually moving eastward along the warm front. This warm front is expected to be quite sharp, but guidance still varies on its location tomorrow afternoon. Given that widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across OK from overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, a more southerly warm front location is currently preferred, likely in the vicinity of the Red River. As such, the greatest severe potential will likely exist from northwest TX into north TX Wednesday afternoon and evening. Here, seasonably cool mid-level temperatures atop mid 60s dewpoints will result in moderate to strong buoyancy. General expectation is for thunderstorm initiation to occur along the dryline during the early afternoon as mesoscale ascent attendant to the dryline is augmented by increasing large-scale ascent. This general expectation may be complicated by residual outflow that may be in place over north/central TX in the wake of early morning storms. However, uncertainty regarding the location and depth of any outflow limits predictability at this forecast range. Initial development will likely be supercellular, supported by increasing mid-level flow and strong deep-layer shear. Steep lapse rates will favor large to very large (i.e. greater than 2 inches in diameter) with these initial supercells. Low-level flow is expected to be relatively modest, limiting low-level shear and potentially keeping the tornado threat low. However, given the potential for interaction with residual outflow and/or the warm front, some higher threat may materialize in more confined corridors. Given previously mentioned uncertainties regarding outflow and warm front positions, will defer any increase in tornado probabilities to later outlooks. Upscale growth is anticipated after a few hours after initiation, with the resulting MCS tracking eastward/southeastward across east TX and northern LA. Marginal wind probabilities were extended into far west-central MS to account for the potential that the convective line will be in that vicinity early Thursday morning. ...GA/FL... Seasonably cold mid-level temperatures are expected across GA and FL on Wednesday, with 500-mb temperatures ranging from -14 deg C across south FL to -16 deg C over southern GA. Modest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent is also anticipated as a weak shortwave trough moves over the peninsula. This large-scale ascent in tandem with forcing along sea breeze boundaries is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm coverage. Hail and/or damaging gusts are possible with any more robust/longer-lived storms. ..Mosier.. 04/25/2023 Read more