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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... The persistent omega block persists over the CONUS, with a deep low over the Great Lakes/Northeast, a ridge over the Rockies, and another midlevel low over northern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture extends from the northern CA low southeastward toward west TX, within the deformation zone between the two deep lows. Subtle speed maxima are moving northeastward from northern Mexico toward the southern High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases from the southeast (in response to weak lee troughing). In the immediate wake of morning clouds, strong surface heating and modest increases in low-level moisture will contribute to destabilization this afternoon, when MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg. The 12z MAF/EPZ soundings suggest that the warmest elevated mixed layer plume is already over TX, with cooler upstream temperatures. Thus, afternoon surface temperatures into the mid 80s should be sufficient to mix through the base of the elevated mixed layer, reducing convective inhibition and supporting scattered thunderstorm development across eastern NM/west TX along the lee trough. The weak-moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rate profiles, in combination with rather modest deep-layer shear and relatively straight hodographs, will support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some splitting supercells. The primary severe threat will be a few severe outflow gusts with the high-based storms, though isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with transient supercell structures and/or favorable storm mergers/interactions. The severe-weather threat will peak late afternoon and slowly diminish by late evening, though slightly elevated storms could persist overnight. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 05/02/2023 Read more

The Papillion Fire Department shared tips on fire safety as drought gripped much of Nebraska, increasing the fire danger. A recent wildfire forced the closure of Highway 370 in Papillion. The fire department has also fought more fires than usual for this point in the year. KMTV 3 News Now (Omaha, Neb.), April 11, 2023

Human remains found in July and August 2022 at Lake Mead were determined to belong to a Las Vegas man who went missing while fishing in July 1998. The low level of the lake exposed more shoreline near the Boulder Beach swimming area. Another set of remains found behind Hoover Dam was identified and belong to a North Las Vegas man who drowned in April 1974. The body in the barrel that was found in May 2022 near a popular swimming and boating area has not yet been identified. The clothing, however, appears to date to the mid-1970s to early 1980s. The Associated Press (Las Vegas), April 27, 2023

Rio Grande Valley farmers were concerned about having enough moisture in the ground to get the cotton crop sprouted. There seemed to be just enough moisture, but then farmers were stressed, knowing that the crop needed more moisture to keep going. ValleyCentral.com (Harlingen, Texas), April 27, 2023

The driest April on record for parts of central Kansas has farmers hauling water and using last year’s hay. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), April 21, 2023

The Division of Wildlife Resources recommended a statewide total of 71,600 deer tags this year, a decrease of 2% from last year. Years of dry conditions in Utah have hurt mule deer numbers, which have stayed below state wildlife officials’ population targets. The extremely heavy snowpack of this past winter killed many deer and left others worse for wear. Fawns, in particular, did not survive well in parts of the state, but did well in desert areas. The Salt Lake Tribune (Utah), May 1, 2023 The Utah Division of Wildlife Resources recommends a decrease in the number of general-season deer hunting permits for a fifth straight year, but is seeking public feedback on this and other hunting recommendations. Some of the factors that adversely affect the deer population are poor or limited habitat, predators and harsh weather, such as drought or excessive snowfall like the state has had this winter. The proposal is for a decrease of 4,800 permits in Northern Utah (about 20% fewer than last year) and a decrease of 1,000 permits in Northeast Utah (about 11% fewer than last year). Increases are proposed for central, southern and southeastern Utah. KSTU-FOX 13 (Salt Lake City, Utah), April 4, 2023

Many Cowley County farmers are hoping for additional rain before the wheat harvest as precipitation has been scarce. One farmer said that his neighbor’s wheat field was sprayed because insurance would not cover cutting costs. Another neighbor sold all of his cattle for lack of grass and water. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), April 30, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current Elevated region across southwest MN and portions of IA within the D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of dry and wet scattered thunderstorms will be possible across southeastern New Mexico. Gradual moistening is expected through the afternoon, with afternoon relative humidity approaching 30-40 percent. This, in combination with slower storm motions around 15 mph, will allow for measurable precipitation chances to increase through the afternoon. Relative humidity around 20 percent will be most likely across southeastern New Mexico in the early afternoon as thunderstorms develop with very dry sub-cloud conditions. A period of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible within this region. ERCs in this region are approaching the 90th percentile. As such, this region has been included in isolated dry thunder. ..Thornton.. 05/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across southwest MN into parts of IA. North/northwesterly gradient winds are expected to linger across the region into Tuesday, and the persistent northerly flow will usher in a dry air mass from the Canadian Prairies. Ensemble and deterministic guidance shows a reasonable signal for 15-25% RH across this region with sustained winds between 15-20 mph. Although the axis of stronger mid-level winds will shift east through the day, gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible. Fine grasses across the region are expected to undergo curing today (Monday) given the warm, dry, and windy forecast, which should support the fire weather concern on Tuesday. Across the Southwest and Great Basin, another day of breezy southerly winds is expected, but an influx of moisture from the Gulf of California should limit RH reductions compared to today/Monday. Consequently, only localized fire weather concerns are anticipated, mainly across southern AZ to southwest NM where fuels are driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 1 19:56:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 1 19:56:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST NEVADA INTO CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts may affect parts of a corridor from northwestern Nevada to eastern Oregon, late this afternoon into evening. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 05/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023/ ...Northwest NV into eastern OR this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over northern CA will pivot northward over northwest NV/southern OR, around the eastern periphery of a deepening midlevel low just off the OR/northern CA coasts. Low-level moisture is limited across the Great Basin with dewpoints mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s F. However, surface heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates/inverted-v profiles with weak buoyancy, which will favor high-based storms in a loose arc later this afternoon. Some storm-scale organization will be possible in an environment of deep-layer, south-southeasterly shear, and the strongest storms may produce strong/isolated severe outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from northwest NV into eastern OR. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon across parts of NY/PA where modest surface heating occurs in cloud breaks, beneath cold midlevel temperatures. Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with weak diurnal convection across parts of the central/northern Rockies, in the vicinity of a mean northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible over the Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon through the mid evening. ...Synopsis... An omega block pattern will characterize the flow regime over the Lower 48 states on Tuesday. Two nearly stationary mid-level lows will be located near San Francisco Bay and the Lower Great Lakes. A mid-level ridge will extend from the southern High Plains north-northwestward through the northern Rockies. Surface high pressure will reside over the mid MO Valley with a narrow moisture plume protruding from the lower Rio Grande Valley northwestward into the southern High Plains. The early stage of northwestward moisture return will be ongoing Tuesday across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the Edwards Plateau/Big Bend. The development of a weak lee trough/dryline will focus the northwest periphery of marginal moisture into the Permian Basin by late afternoon. Very strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a well-mixed boundary layer and SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Low-level southeasterlies veering and strengthening to 20-kt westerly 500-mb flow, will result in around 25-30 effective shear. Model guidance indicates at least widely scattered thunderstorms developing by early evening. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger downdrafts as this activity aggregates into one or two small clusters during the evening before dissipating. ..Smith.. 05/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlooks. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across southern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. Steady pressure falls over the past 24 hours are noted across parts of the Great Basin where early-morning surface observations depict a broad cyclone. The approach of an upper shortwave trough off the CA coast will support broad-scale ascent over the Great Basin, further deepening the surface low over the next 12 hours. In response, southerly low-level winds are expected to increase from northern Mexico into the Southwest and Great Basin. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show high probability of widespread 15-25 mph sustained winds across this region, and deep boundary-layer mixing will support gusts between 25-40 mph - especially over western AZ where mid-level winds are forecast to be stronger. An antecedent dry air mass is noted across the Southwest, which will allow for another day of 10-20% RH. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable for much of the region, but the fire weather concern will primarily reside from southwest NM to southern AZ where ERCs are generally at the 75th percentile or higher after a period of unseasonably warm temperatures and little rainfall over the past 30 days. Sustained critical conditions appear most probable across parts of southwest AZ, but confidence in the spatial coverage remains too limited for additional highlights. ...Minnesota to northern MO... Strong north/northwesterly gradient winds are expected across a broad swath of the eastern Plains/Midwest this afternoon. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph will likely coincide with areas of 25-35% RH to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions. Latest fuel guidance and drought indices suggest fuels are generally unreceptive, but localized fire weather concerns are possible where fuels are sufficiently dry. ...Dry Thunderstorms... 00 UTC soundings from BOI, LKN, SLC, and GJT sampled a very dry air mass (PWAT values 0.4-0.5 inches) with cold temperatures aloft. Mid-level moisture, while meager, is adequate to support high-based convection based on recent lightning trends in southwest ID. This air mass is expected to migrate northward into northern ID/western MT as well as WY to northwest CO, and may support a few dry thunderstorms this afternoon. While this potential is noted, fuels across the region remain too unreceptive to warrant a risk highlight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST NV INTO EASTERN OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts may affect parts of a corridor from northwestern Nevada to eastern Oregon, late this afternoon into evening. ...Northwest NV into eastern OR this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over northern CA will pivot northward over northwest NV/southern OR, around the eastern periphery of a deepening midlevel low just off the OR/northern CA coasts. Low-level moisture is limited across the Great Basin with dewpoints mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s F. However, surface heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates/inverted-v profiles with weak buoyancy, which will favor high-based storms in a loose arc later this afternoon. Some storm-scale organization will be possible in an environment of deep-layer, south-southeasterly shear, and the strongest storms may produce strong/isolated severe outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from northwest NV into eastern OR. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon across parts of NY/PA where modest surface heating occurs in cloud breaks, beneath cold midlevel temperatures. Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with weak diurnal convection across parts of the central/northern Rockies, in the vicinity of a mean northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 05/01/2023 Read more

Crop and pasture conditions continued to decline in southeast Colorado due to lack of moisture and high winds. Drought conditions in the district remained steady last week. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 26, 2023 Crop and pasture conditions in southeast Colorado continued to decline due to lack of moisture and high winds. Winter wheat in the area remained heavily stressed, with most of the crop reported as very poor to fair. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 18, 2023 Crop and pasture conditions in southeast Colorado continued to decline due to lack of moisture and high winds. Winter wheat in the area remained heavily stressed and development was behind average. Livestock producers were utilizing emergency grazing of CRP acreage where available. The Prowers Journal (Lamar, Colo.), April 12, 2023

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 30 21:31:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 30 21:31:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon from eastern North Carolina to southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The only change this forecast update is to remove severe probabilities in wake of the squall line over eastern NC. ..Smith.. 04/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023/ ...Northeast SC into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon... Around the southeast periphery of a deep low over Lake MI, a pronounced shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward today across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward and deepen from the Carolina Piedmont to the Mid-Atlantic by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves off the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Prior to frontal passage, there will be a window of opportunity for destabilization from northeast SC into eastern NC, in the wake of ongoing rain/clouds across eastern NC. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 70s, and cooling midlevel temperatures will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and minimal convective inhibition this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorms in SC along the front and on the nose of the midlevel dry slot will expand some in coverage while spreading northeastward into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon. These storms will pose a threat for wind damage and large hail, given the moderate buoyancy/cool midlevel temperatures and straight hodographs. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging thunderstorm winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon from eastern North Carolina to southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The only change this forecast update is to remove severe probabilities in wake of the squall line over eastern NC. ..Smith.. 04/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023/ ...Northeast SC into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon... Around the southeast periphery of a deep low over Lake MI, a pronounced shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward today across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. An associated surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward and deepen from the Carolina Piedmont to the Mid-Atlantic by this evening, as a trailing cold front moves off the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Prior to frontal passage, there will be a window of opportunity for destabilization from northeast SC into eastern NC, in the wake of ongoing rain/clouds across eastern NC. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s, surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 70s, and cooling midlevel temperatures will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and minimal convective inhibition this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorms in SC along the front and on the nose of the midlevel dry slot will expand some in coverage while spreading northeastward into eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon. These storms will pose a threat for wind damage and large hail, given the moderate buoyancy/cool midlevel temperatures and straight hodographs. Read more