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MD 0674 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Areas affected...parts of west-central Texas to the middle Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041948Z - 042215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms producing large hail will be possible from late this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a CU field near a dryline extending from northwest TX southwestward toward the Rio Grande. Winds have veered to west/southwest behind the dryline, with temperatures currently into the mid 80s F. East of the dryline, cirrus has generally thinned, with areas of heating in the moist air mass. A moisture gradient does exist from central into southwest TX, and is not expected to move much in the near term. Continued heating as well as deepening of the moist boundary layer ahead of the dryline may yield several storms by late afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak midlevel feature moving across southwestern TX. Little else will be present to support a more organized severe threat, but trends will be monitored for signs of increasing severe storm coverage through early evening. Modest instability and favorably long hodographs should favor mainly hail. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29690251 30640192 31520135 32160107 32710093 32910055 32959967 32399919 31679921 30779949 29760017 29140079 29470120 29700143 29780223 29690251 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Minor adjustments were made to include a larger portion of southeastern Colorado within the Elevated in alignment with recent trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no further updates needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon across far southeast AZ into much of NM. The meandering upper-level low over the West Coast is forecast to begin translating east towards the Rockies during the day Friday. Despite weak lee troughing over the High Plains, strong mid-level flow will overspread much of the Southwest. Deep boundary-layer mixing and broad subsidence will allow for efficient downward transport of 25-35 mph winds and promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens. Sustained critical conditions appears most likely from far southeast AZ into northeast NM where boundary-layer winds are currently expected to be strongest. Elevated fire conditions may extend well into the TX Panhandle and possibly as far east as western OK. Fuels are currently unreceptive across this region after recent rainfall, which precludes an eastward expansion of the risk area. However, rapid drying of fine grasses may support local fire concerns. Similarly, elevated conditions may spread further north into southeast CO than currently depicted, but this potential appears to be conditional on the strength of the lee cyclone over east-central CO. This area may be a candidate for highlight expansion if guidance comes into better agreement regarding the evolution of the surface low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Minor adjustments were made to include a larger portion of southeastern Colorado within the Elevated in alignment with recent trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no further updates needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon across far southeast AZ into much of NM. The meandering upper-level low over the West Coast is forecast to begin translating east towards the Rockies during the day Friday. Despite weak lee troughing over the High Plains, strong mid-level flow will overspread much of the Southwest. Deep boundary-layer mixing and broad subsidence will allow for efficient downward transport of 25-35 mph winds and promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens. Sustained critical conditions appears most likely from far southeast AZ into northeast NM where boundary-layer winds are currently expected to be strongest. Elevated fire conditions may extend well into the TX Panhandle and possibly as far east as western OK. Fuels are currently unreceptive across this region after recent rainfall, which precludes an eastward expansion of the risk area. However, rapid drying of fine grasses may support local fire concerns. Similarly, elevated conditions may spread further north into southeast CO than currently depicted, but this potential appears to be conditional on the strength of the lee cyclone over east-central CO. This area may be a candidate for highlight expansion if guidance comes into better agreement regarding the evolution of the surface low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Minor adjustments were made to include a larger portion of southeastern Colorado within the Elevated in alignment with recent trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no further updates needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon across far southeast AZ into much of NM. The meandering upper-level low over the West Coast is forecast to begin translating east towards the Rockies during the day Friday. Despite weak lee troughing over the High Plains, strong mid-level flow will overspread much of the Southwest. Deep boundary-layer mixing and broad subsidence will allow for efficient downward transport of 25-35 mph winds and promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens. Sustained critical conditions appears most likely from far southeast AZ into northeast NM where boundary-layer winds are currently expected to be strongest. Elevated fire conditions may extend well into the TX Panhandle and possibly as far east as western OK. Fuels are currently unreceptive across this region after recent rainfall, which precludes an eastward expansion of the risk area. However, rapid drying of fine grasses may support local fire concerns. Similarly, elevated conditions may spread further north into southeast CO than currently depicted, but this potential appears to be conditional on the strength of the lee cyclone over east-central CO. This area may be a candidate for highlight expansion if guidance comes into better agreement regarding the evolution of the surface low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central Texas Friday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary threats. Isolated strong storms are also possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley to the central Gulf Coast, and across parts of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will spread east from the south-central U.S. toward the Midwest/Southeast vicinity on Friday. As this occurs, an upper trough over the western U.S. will pivot northeast toward the northern/central Plains. Several shortwave impulses embedded within the upper ridge, as well as the ejecting western trough, will focus severe potential across portions of the southern Plains, the South and the central Plains. ...TX/far southeast OK... Central/eastern TX will remain well south/east of the influence for the ejecting western upper trough. However, forecast guidance depicts a favorably timed shortwave trough ejecting from Mexico toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected amid a seasonally moist airmass to the east of a dryline. Deep-layer flow will remain somewhat weak, but vertically veering profiles will contribute to 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest potential for supercells capable of very large hail (some greater than 2+ inches). Steep low-level lapse rates and some midlevel dryness could also support strong downdrafts and severe outflow winds. ...MS/AL vicinity... A somewhat complicated/low-confidence forecast scenario is expected across parts of the Mid-South to the TN Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the period somewhere in the vicinity of AR near the Mississippi River. Low-level moisture will be increasing through the morning and into the afternoon across the Lower MS Valley into parts of western/southern AL. The MCS may develop east/southeast along the moisture/instability gradient, or new development along outflow also could develop and track southeast during the afternoon. While convective evolution is uncertain, moderate vertical shear and at least weak instability will support strong gusts and hail. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the TN Valley late in the period. This could aid in the development of elevated thunderstorms overnight into early Saturday morning across parts of the TN Valley. This activity would mainly pose a risk of marginally severe hail. ...Central Plains... Modest low-level moistening to the north/northeast of a surface low across the central High Plains will result in weak to locally moderate destabilization across much of NE during the afternoon/evening. A shortwave trough moving northeastward from the southern Rockies will provide forcing for ascent and thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon. Some upscale growth is possible by evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across the region. Isolated severe hail/wind will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central Texas Friday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary threats. Isolated strong storms are also possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley to the central Gulf Coast, and across parts of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will spread east from the south-central U.S. toward the Midwest/Southeast vicinity on Friday. As this occurs, an upper trough over the western U.S. will pivot northeast toward the northern/central Plains. Several shortwave impulses embedded within the upper ridge, as well as the ejecting western trough, will focus severe potential across portions of the southern Plains, the South and the central Plains. ...TX/far southeast OK... Central/eastern TX will remain well south/east of the influence for the ejecting western upper trough. However, forecast guidance depicts a favorably timed shortwave trough ejecting from Mexico toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected amid a seasonally moist airmass to the east of a dryline. Deep-layer flow will remain somewhat weak, but vertically veering profiles will contribute to 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest potential for supercells capable of very large hail (some greater than 2+ inches). Steep low-level lapse rates and some midlevel dryness could also support strong downdrafts and severe outflow winds. ...MS/AL vicinity... A somewhat complicated/low-confidence forecast scenario is expected across parts of the Mid-South to the TN Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the period somewhere in the vicinity of AR near the Mississippi River. Low-level moisture will be increasing through the morning and into the afternoon across the Lower MS Valley into parts of western/southern AL. The MCS may develop east/southeast along the moisture/instability gradient, or new development along outflow also could develop and track southeast during the afternoon. While convective evolution is uncertain, moderate vertical shear and at least weak instability will support strong gusts and hail. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the TN Valley late in the period. This could aid in the development of elevated thunderstorms overnight into early Saturday morning across parts of the TN Valley. This activity would mainly pose a risk of marginally severe hail. ...Central Plains... Modest low-level moistening to the north/northeast of a surface low across the central High Plains will result in weak to locally moderate destabilization across much of NE during the afternoon/evening. A shortwave trough moving northeastward from the southern Rockies will provide forcing for ascent and thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon. Some upscale growth is possible by evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across the region. Isolated severe hail/wind will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central Texas Friday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary threats. Isolated strong storms are also possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley to the central Gulf Coast, and across parts of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will spread east from the south-central U.S. toward the Midwest/Southeast vicinity on Friday. As this occurs, an upper trough over the western U.S. will pivot northeast toward the northern/central Plains. Several shortwave impulses embedded within the upper ridge, as well as the ejecting western trough, will focus severe potential across portions of the southern Plains, the South and the central Plains. ...TX/far southeast OK... Central/eastern TX will remain well south/east of the influence for the ejecting western upper trough. However, forecast guidance depicts a favorably timed shortwave trough ejecting from Mexico toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected amid a seasonally moist airmass to the east of a dryline. Deep-layer flow will remain somewhat weak, but vertically veering profiles will contribute to 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest potential for supercells capable of very large hail (some greater than 2+ inches). Steep low-level lapse rates and some midlevel dryness could also support strong downdrafts and severe outflow winds. ...MS/AL vicinity... A somewhat complicated/low-confidence forecast scenario is expected across parts of the Mid-South to the TN Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the period somewhere in the vicinity of AR near the Mississippi River. Low-level moisture will be increasing through the morning and into the afternoon across the Lower MS Valley into parts of western/southern AL. The MCS may develop east/southeast along the moisture/instability gradient, or new development along outflow also could develop and track southeast during the afternoon. While convective evolution is uncertain, moderate vertical shear and at least weak instability will support strong gusts and hail. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the TN Valley late in the period. This could aid in the development of elevated thunderstorms overnight into early Saturday morning across parts of the TN Valley. This activity would mainly pose a risk of marginally severe hail. ...Central Plains... Modest low-level moistening to the north/northeast of a surface low across the central High Plains will result in weak to locally moderate destabilization across much of NE during the afternoon/evening. A shortwave trough moving northeastward from the southern Rockies will provide forcing for ascent and thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon. Some upscale growth is possible by evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across the region. Isolated severe hail/wind will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central Texas Friday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds expected to be the primary threats. Isolated strong storms are also possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley to the central Gulf Coast, and across parts of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will spread east from the south-central U.S. toward the Midwest/Southeast vicinity on Friday. As this occurs, an upper trough over the western U.S. will pivot northeast toward the northern/central Plains. Several shortwave impulses embedded within the upper ridge, as well as the ejecting western trough, will focus severe potential across portions of the southern Plains, the South and the central Plains. ...TX/far southeast OK... Central/eastern TX will remain well south/east of the influence for the ejecting western upper trough. However, forecast guidance depicts a favorably timed shortwave trough ejecting from Mexico toward the ArkLaTex during the afternoon. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected amid a seasonally moist airmass to the east of a dryline. Deep-layer flow will remain somewhat weak, but vertically veering profiles will contribute to 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest potential for supercells capable of very large hail (some greater than 2+ inches). Steep low-level lapse rates and some midlevel dryness could also support strong downdrafts and severe outflow winds. ...MS/AL vicinity... A somewhat complicated/low-confidence forecast scenario is expected across parts of the Mid-South to the TN Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the period somewhere in the vicinity of AR near the Mississippi River. Low-level moisture will be increasing through the morning and into the afternoon across the Lower MS Valley into parts of western/southern AL. The MCS may develop east/southeast along the moisture/instability gradient, or new development along outflow also could develop and track southeast during the afternoon. While convective evolution is uncertain, moderate vertical shear and at least weak instability will support strong gusts and hail. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the TN Valley late in the period. This could aid in the development of elevated thunderstorms overnight into early Saturday morning across parts of the TN Valley. This activity would mainly pose a risk of marginally severe hail. ...Central Plains... Modest low-level moistening to the north/northeast of a surface low across the central High Plains will result in weak to locally moderate destabilization across much of NE during the afternoon/evening. A shortwave trough moving northeastward from the southern Rockies will provide forcing for ascent and thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon. Some upscale growth is possible by evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across the region. Isolated severe hail/wind will be possible with the strongest storms. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Slight modifications were made to extend the current Elevated region into portions of western Texas from the Permian Basin to Trans-Pecos. Much of the region from the Texas Panhandle to Cap Rock and the Rolling Plains has seen rainfall in the last 24-48 hours, which has mitigated the fire potential as mentioned below. Less rainfall was received with south and westward extent. Status of fuels (in coordination with local partners) and ensemble guidance indications of around 80 percent probability of at least Elevated conditions further supports this change. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Subsidence in the wake of a sub-tropical shortwave trough will overspread southeast AZ and NM this afternoon. Poor overnight RH recovery is noted at a few surface stations across this region, and 00 UTC soundings from TUS, ABQ, and EPZ sampled very dry boundary layers. With additional drying/warming expected this afternoon, RH reductions into the low to mid teens appear likely. Weak lee cyclogenesis across the TX Panhandle into northwest OK will result in a modest low-level mass response across the Southwest. Sustained winds near 15 mph are expected, but should frequently gust between 20-30 mph. The previous Elevated risk area has been expanded to include portions of southeast NM. Although this area has recently received spotty rainfall, local reports noted that dry lightning over the past 48 hours has resulted in a few fire starts. This not only indicates that fuels are generally receptive (outside of pockets of heavier rainfall), but also implies that holdover fires are possible and may spread amid the hot, dry, and windy conditions expected today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z Slight modifications were made to extend the current Elevated region into portions of western Texas from the Permian Basin to Trans-Pecos. Much of the region from the Texas Panhandle to Cap Rock and the Rolling Plains has seen rainfall in the last 24-48 hours, which has mitigated the fire potential as mentioned below. Less rainfall was received with south and westward extent. Status of fuels (in coordination with local partners) and ensemble guidance indications of around 80 percent probability of at least Elevated conditions further supports this change. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. Subsidence in the wake of a sub-tropical shortwave trough will overspread southeast AZ and NM this afternoon. Poor overnight RH recovery is noted at a few surface stations across this region, and 00 UTC soundings from TUS, ABQ, and EPZ sampled very dry boundary layers. With additional drying/warming expected this afternoon, RH reductions into the low to mid teens appear likely. Weak lee cyclogenesis across the TX Panhandle into northwest OK will result in a modest low-level mass response across the Southwest. Sustained winds near 15 mph are expected, but should frequently gust between 20-30 mph. The previous Elevated risk area has been expanded to include portions of southeast NM. Although this area has recently received spotty rainfall, local reports noted that dry lightning over the past 48 hours has resulted in a few fire starts. This not only indicates that fuels are generally receptive (outside of pockets of heavier rainfall), but also implies that holdover fires are possible and may spread amid the hot, dry, and windy conditions expected today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Some rain fell across parts of Kansas at the end of April, but it was not enough to ease the drought. Crops yields continue to decline with the lack of rain. A Garden Plain winter wheat grower usually gets about 75 bushels per acre. A farmer near Mount Hope has run his irrigation system five times so far, which is a record for him. Most years he doesn’t need to use it. KSN-TV News 3 (Wichita, Kan.), May 2, 2023

Winter wheat could be abandoned in parts of South Dakota as the crop was struggling. It is still too early to plant the next crop, and farmers will have to make their decisions on whether to abandon the wheat and plant something else in the next week. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 1, 2023

A fruit grower in Citrus County stated that the lack of precipitation has prevented the fruit from growing as large as it might have with more rain, so he irrigates. The precipitation deficit in northwest Citrus County is 23 to 24 inches over the past year. Bay News 9 (St. Petersburg, Fla.), May 3, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed May 3 21:31:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0672 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO...AND SOUTHWESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NM...the TX/OK Panhandles...far southeastern CO...and southwestern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032042Z - 032315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds may occur as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward over the next few hours. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently formed over the higher terrain of the Raton Pass/Mesa vicinity and eastward into parts of northeastern NM and southeastern CO. Although modestly forced, this activity is occurring along a weak surface lee trough. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to move generally east-southeastward through the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads of 25-30+ F are present with a deeply/well-mixed boundary layer. Occasional strong to severe downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores, especially if thunderstorms can congeal into a small cluster or two. Isolated hail also appears possible. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 20-30 kt are somewhat marginal to support more than an isolated severe threat. Therefore, watch issuance will probably not be needed. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35310299 35900402 36250426 36800363 37510227 37660148 37400070 36370026 35730061 35180164 35310299 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AND PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow winds will be possible through this evening across the Pecos Valley and Permian Basin of west Texas. ...20z Update... A minor adjustment to the Marginal risk has been made over northwest Texas with the 20z update. Isolated convection has developed this afternoon along an outflow-reinforced boundary. Modified RAP soundings with current observations indicate a somewhat more favorable environment exists within the frontal zone compared to earlier forecast guidance. A storm or two may briefly become severe, producing marginal hail and strong gusts. For more info on short term severe potential, see MCD 670. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. For short term severe information across the Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin see MCD 671. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed May 03 2023/ ...Southern High Plains this afternoon through late evening... Midlevel ridging will persist over the High Plains, between deep midlevel lows near the central CA coast and over western NY/PA. A convectively enhanced trough and associated elevated convection has moved through the mean ridge, and will continue slowly eastward over southern OK today. The rain/clouds with this wave will reinforce a baroclinic zone just south of the Red River, which will demarcate the northern fringe of the boundary-layer dewpoints above 60 F. Farther west, the flow regime will encourage only weak lee troughing from eastern NM into eastern CO, with modest low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s) along and east of the weak lee trough. Satellite imagery shows a large area with few/no clouds centered over eastern NM, so strong surface heating/mixing is expected along the lee trough, and in the immediate lee of the higher terrain features such as the Davis/Guadalupe/Sacramento Mountains northward to the Raton Mesa. Weakening convective inhibition and MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range will favor high-based thunderstorm development, some of which could be splitting supercells given relatively straight hodographs and effective bulk shear in the 30-35 kt range. The initial/supercells storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail (mainly 1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and strong/severe outflow gusts. There will be some potential for upscale growth into a small cluster across the South Plains/TX Panhandle tonight as low-level warm advection strengthens, though the severe threat will slowly diminish by late evening. ...Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Some high-based convection will be possible this afternoon across western UT, around the eastern periphery of the northern CA closed low. Moisture will be limited, but deep inverted-v profiles and minimal buoyancy could support strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. Other isolated strong/elevated storms may occur in the eastern flow regime north of the closed low (along the Cascades), where steep midlevel lapse rates support weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AND PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow winds will be possible through this evening across the Pecos Valley and Permian Basin of west Texas. ...20z Update... A minor adjustment to the Marginal risk has been made over northwest Texas with the 20z update. Isolated convection has developed this afternoon along an outflow-reinforced boundary. Modified RAP soundings with current observations indicate a somewhat more favorable environment exists within the frontal zone compared to earlier forecast guidance. A storm or two may briefly become severe, producing marginal hail and strong gusts. For more info on short term severe potential, see MCD 670. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. For short term severe information across the Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin see MCD 671. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed May 03 2023/ ...Southern High Plains this afternoon through late evening... Midlevel ridging will persist over the High Plains, between deep midlevel lows near the central CA coast and over western NY/PA. A convectively enhanced trough and associated elevated convection has moved through the mean ridge, and will continue slowly eastward over southern OK today. The rain/clouds with this wave will reinforce a baroclinic zone just south of the Red River, which will demarcate the northern fringe of the boundary-layer dewpoints above 60 F. Farther west, the flow regime will encourage only weak lee troughing from eastern NM into eastern CO, with modest low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s) along and east of the weak lee trough. Satellite imagery shows a large area with few/no clouds centered over eastern NM, so strong surface heating/mixing is expected along the lee trough, and in the immediate lee of the higher terrain features such as the Davis/Guadalupe/Sacramento Mountains northward to the Raton Mesa. Weakening convective inhibition and MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range will favor high-based thunderstorm development, some of which could be splitting supercells given relatively straight hodographs and effective bulk shear in the 30-35 kt range. The initial/supercells storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail (mainly 1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and strong/severe outflow gusts. There will be some potential for upscale growth into a small cluster across the South Plains/TX Panhandle tonight as low-level warm advection strengthens, though the severe threat will slowly diminish by late evening. ...Great Basin/Pacific Northwest... Some high-based convection will be possible this afternoon across western UT, around the eastern periphery of the northern CA closed low. Moisture will be limited, but deep inverted-v profiles and minimal buoyancy could support strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. Other isolated strong/elevated storms may occur in the eastern flow regime north of the closed low (along the Cascades), where steep midlevel lapse rates support weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Wed May 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain concentrated across the Southwest into parts of the southern High Plains on Thursday. The passage of a sub-tropical shortwave trough over northern Mexico into the southern Plains during the first half of the day will result in somewhat modest lee cyclogenesis across the OK/TX Panhandle region. Regional pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across eastern AZ into much of NM. While the strongest mid-level winds will likely be misphased with peak diurnal warming and the driest fuels, subsidence in the wake of the upper wave should favor a broad swath of 10-20% RH across much of the Southwest. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected over areas with receptive fuels. Transient critical conditions are possible, but boundary-layer winds between 20-25 mph casts uncertainty onto the duration and coverage of such conditions. Elevated conditions may extend as far northeast as the western TX Panhandle, but this will be dependent on the progression and evolution of the surface low, as well as on fuel status across the Panhandle by Thursday afternoon. Furthermore, elevated conditions are probable across southeast NM and adjacent areas of TX, but ensemble guidance shows a reasonably high (50+%) chance of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, which may limit fuel status. Trends will be monitored and adjustments made as the rainfall distribution becomes more apparent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Wed May 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain concentrated across the Southwest into parts of the southern High Plains on Thursday. The passage of a sub-tropical shortwave trough over northern Mexico into the southern Plains during the first half of the day will result in somewhat modest lee cyclogenesis across the OK/TX Panhandle region. Regional pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across eastern AZ into much of NM. While the strongest mid-level winds will likely be misphased with peak diurnal warming and the driest fuels, subsidence in the wake of the upper wave should favor a broad swath of 10-20% RH across much of the Southwest. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions are expected over areas with receptive fuels. Transient critical conditions are possible, but boundary-layer winds between 20-25 mph casts uncertainty onto the duration and coverage of such conditions. Elevated conditions may extend as far northeast as the western TX Panhandle, but this will be dependent on the progression and evolution of the surface low, as well as on fuel status across the Panhandle by Thursday afternoon. Furthermore, elevated conditions are probable across southeast NM and adjacent areas of TX, but ensemble guidance shows a reasonably high (50+%) chance of wetting rainfall over the next 24 hours, which may limit fuel status. Trends will be monitored and adjustments made as the rainfall distribution becomes more apparent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0671 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NM AND WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM and west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031952Z - 032215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe wind gusts should gradually increase as thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Mostly clear/sunny skies have allowed ample daytime heating to occur this afternoon across the southern High Plains. Most locations across southeastern NM into west TX have generally warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s, amid low to mid 50s surface dewpoints. Although large-scale ascent aloft remains nebulous/weak, convection should continue to gradually develop along the higher terrain of the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, with modest low-level upslope flow persisting. Once this activity reaches the greater low-level moisture a bit farther east, it should gradually increase in coverage and intensity as it encounters around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though low/mid-level winds remain somewhat modest, there is enough veering with height through mid levels to foster 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. A mix of loosely organized multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells should develop and persist this afternoon and evening. With steep mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z MAF sounding, any persistent supercell should pose some threat for large hail. Multicell clusters will tend to have more of a severe/damaging wind risk as they spread eastward with time. Primary uncertainty remains the number of thunderstorms that will develop given weak large-scale forcing. Still, if it becomes apparent that multiple robust updrafts will develop/persist, then Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be considered for parts of southeastern NM into west TX. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 30950412 32070461 33290455 33620381 33670295 33440223 32970194 31930186 31020186 30030205 29810231 29710259 29600279 29790353 30950412 Read more