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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AZ...SOUTHERN NM...AND FAR WEST TX... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details on today's fire-weather threat, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move southeast from the Great Basin to the central Rockies today. This will bring moderate mid-level flow over a region which will be deeply mixed this afternoon. In addition, a lee cyclone will develop in the southern High Plains which will tighten the pressure gradient. These factors will combine for strong winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. The driest region with the warmest temperatures will be across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas which is where the Critical delineation is. In addition, some thunderstorms are possible ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. These storms should be dry with PWAT values around 0.3 to 0.4. Fuels at higher terrain remain snow covered or moist/green. However, some critically dry fuels exist at lower elevation. Therefore, some lightning starts are possible in the lower elevations within the IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AZ...SOUTHERN NM...AND FAR WEST TX... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details on today's fire-weather threat, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move southeast from the Great Basin to the central Rockies today. This will bring moderate mid-level flow over a region which will be deeply mixed this afternoon. In addition, a lee cyclone will develop in the southern High Plains which will tighten the pressure gradient. These factors will combine for strong winds across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. The driest region with the warmest temperatures will be across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas which is where the Critical delineation is. In addition, some thunderstorms are possible ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. These storms should be dry with PWAT values around 0.3 to 0.4. Fuels at higher terrain remain snow covered or moist/green. However, some critically dry fuels exist at lower elevation. Therefore, some lightning starts are possible in the lower elevations within the IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

An Alfalfa County rancher has found an innovative, but labor-intensive way, of raising cattle that keeps the cattle in fresh grass. The herd is grass-fed, and no fertilizer is used on the pasture. The grasses, which are fertilized with cow manure and urine, are clover, rye, Bermuda and some native. The rancher moves a cord three to four times a day to move the cattle around. The grass regrows so there is newly grown grass for the cattle to eat. Enid News & Eagle (Okla.), April 22, 2023

A Washington County wheat grower stated that he anticipated having to abandon 20% to 30% of his wheat. Conditions were worse the further west one travels in Kansas. KSNT-TV NBC 27 Topeka (Kan.), April 24, 2023

Gov. Justice issued a ban on all outdoor burning across West Virginia until further notice as drought conditions, combined with dry and windy weather, increase the fire danger. Hundreds of blazes have occurred across the state this year, leading to an uptick in fire calls. WDTV-TV CBS 5 (Clarksburg, WV), April 19, 2023

Some farmers in southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles considered abandoning the crop as drought conditions intensified over the winter, putting more acres in drought than when winter began. Crop insurance adjusters were flooded with calls. Moisture may limit the yields and production of hard red winter and hard red spring wheat in the U.S., tightening stocks and increasing the likelihood of above-average flour prices in 2023. Food Business News (Kansas City, Mo.), April 24, 2023

The burn ban continued in Polk County. WMFE-FM 90.7 (Orland, Fla.), April 25, 2023 A Polk County wildfire burned more than 650 acres in the last week of March. Although the blaze was contained within a day, the City of Winter Haven Fire Department and Polk County Fire Rescue opted to issue burn bans prohibiting open burning until further notice. WTVT-TV FOX 13 Tampa Bay (Fla.), March 30, 2023

Orange County adopted a burn ban due to the dry ground and lack of rain. The ban will automatically end when the Keetch-Byram Drought Index falls below 500 for seven consecutive days. A number of small fires have occurred lately, including one sparked by a birthday candle. Orlando Sentinel (Fla.), March 29, 2023

Water users in the Lower Elkhorn Natural Resource District have a 15-inch allocation for the 2023 growing season while the area remains in extreme and exceptional drought. If drought conditions improve to severe drought for 14 consecutive days, the restriction would be lifted for locations within the area. Spring well measurements show that wells continue to decline. News Channel Nebraska (Grand Island, Neb.), April 25, 2023 The Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources District imposed water restrictions on anyone with a well in a D3 or D4 area in late October. The LENRD will be closely watching groundwater levels in 2023. WJAG-AM (Norfolk, Neb.), Jan 24, 2023

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/24/23 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-027-043-049-051-055-061-085-093-095-097-099-105-111- 117-242240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS INDIAN RIVER MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH POLK ST. LUCIE SEMINOLE AMZ552-555-610-650-242240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM LAKE OKEECHOBEE Read more

WW 165 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 241835Z - 250000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and South Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly intensify this afternoon across the watch area as an upper trough approaches. The strongest storms will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Melbourne FL to 45 miles south of West Palm Beach FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

MD 0610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Areas affected...Central/South FL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165... Valid 242038Z - 242245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts continues across central and southern FL. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows numerous ongoing thunderstorms across central and south FL, with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. A few supercells, both left and right moving, have be observed as well. Somewhat chaotic storm motion has been noted, as these storms have tended to discretely propagate along their outflow. There have already been numerous storm interactions as well. Temperatures have already dropped into mid 70s across central FL, where mesoanalysis now suggests some convective inhibition is in place. Even with this inhibition, large-scale forcing for ascent will persist across the region, augmenting any mesoscale ascent along outflow boundaries and/or that results from surface convergence. As such, thunderstorms are expected to continue for the next few hours, with an attendant risk for hail and/or damaging gusts. Storm coverage will likely begin to decrease over west-central/southwest FL first as the ascent moves through, with gradual clearing then occurring west to east across the peninsula. ..Mosier.. 04/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28518235 28898207 29008135 28648059 27357975 26197956 25658019 25908115 27228197 28518235 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AZ...SOUTHERN NM...AND FAR WEST TX... The primary changes with this update were a northward expansion of the Elevated highlights and the introduction of an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area in central NM. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of a southeastward-advancing midlevel low, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a deeply mixed boundary layer will support isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorm development over the higher terrain in central NM during the afternoon. Quick southeastward storm motions will allow this activity to overspread the lower elevations (where fuels are modestly supportive of lightning ignitions), and around 0.5 inch PW should aid in limiting rainfall accumulation. For additional details on the Day 2/Tuesday fire-weather threat, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will shift southeast from the Great Basin into the central Rockies on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across eastern New Mexico. West of this surface low, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected, which will bring some stronger mid-level flow toward the surface. Therefore, this deep mixing, combined with the strengthening pressure gradient, will lead to windy conditions across much of the Southwest. Higher moisture values and potentially some light rain (mountain snow) are possible across northern New Mexico. This should dampen fuel receptiveness and keep relative humidity somewhat higher. Therefore, the greatest fire weather threat will be across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas where winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 10 to 15 percent are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and early evening over parts of central/south Florida, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the Slight Risk across parts of central/south FL based on ongoing convective trends and short-term guidance. A threat for large hail and damaging winds will continue through the afternoon and early evening with robust convection that has developed across this area. See recently issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165 for more details. ..Gleason.. 04/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023/ ...Central/South FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive mid-level shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward the FL Peninsula. Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread FL in the next few hours as diurnal heating maximizes. This should lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show relatively cool temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb), along with rich low-level moisture and robust daytime heating. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but mid/upper level winds are sufficiently strong to support a combination of multicell and occasional supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. One forecast concern is that rapid storm development during the mid-afternoon may quickly exhaust the available instability, leading to a rather short window of opportunity for severe storms. ...AZ/NM... Clear skies are present this morning over much of AZ/NM, where steep low-level lapse rates and marginal CAPE values are expected to develop later today. Most model guidance agrees that scattered fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will form from northeast AZ into central/northern NM, where relatively strong westerly deep-layer flow is present. This environment appears favorable for a few dry microbursts, however very limited coverage and low confidence precludes a 5% severe wind outlook. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday over parts of Texas, with a risk of large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Southern Plains... An upper trough/low will advance from the Great Basin/Four Corners region to the southern High Plains on Tuesday. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across much of TX through the day, eventually reaching the lower MS Valley Tuesday night. Modest lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM should encourage the northward return of low-level moisture across west/central TX along/south of a surface warm front and east of a dryline. Convective development and evolution across most of the warm sector during the day still appears rather uncertain/conditional owing to a residual cap and limited daytime heating from widespread cloudiness. A better chance for the development of high-based thunderstorms is apparent across the southern High Plains as the upper trough advances south-southeastward. This activity will spread into a modestly unstable airmass, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 40s to perhaps low 50s. But, sufficiently strong deep-layer shear should support modestly organized updrafts, with an isolated threat for both hail and strong/gusty winds. With steep mid-level lapse rates and weak MUCAPE forecast, some threat for severe hail may also exist to the north of the front across parts of western into southern/central OK with elevated thunderstorms. Slightly better low-level moisture, characterized by mid/upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints, are forecast from western north TX into central/north TX by Tuesday afternoon along/south of the warm front. Any thunderstorms that can form across this region would probably become severe and pose a threat for large to very large hail and damaging winds, as greater instability and strong deep-layer shear foster organized updrafts and the potential for supercells. However, uncertainty remains rather high regarding the number of severe thunderstorms that may form owing to nebulous/modest large-scale ascent. The risk for a couple of tornadoes may also increase with this activity late Tuesday afternoon/evening as a southerly low-level jet modestly strengthens. Have expanded the Slight Risk a bit to the northwest to include more of western north TX and vicinity. But, opted to not include the TX/OK Panhandles due to continued concerns about sufficient instability to support more than an isolated/marginal severe threat. ...Florida... Generally zonal flow at mid/upper levels will be present over much of FL on Tuesday. Even though low-level winds will remain weak, strengthening mid/upper-level westerlies may support some updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can develop Tuesday afternoon over parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along sea breeze boundaries. Strong daytime heating, combined with upper 60s surface dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft, will likely lead to MLCAPE approaching 1000-1500 J/kg across the southeastern FL Peninsula. Even though large-scale ascent will remain minimal, at least isolated thunderstorms should form, with straight hodographs favoring marginally severe hail. Occasional damaging winds may also occur. ..Gleason.. 04/24/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough, observed on upper-level water-vapor imagery this morning across the Great Basin, will move east and cross the central Rockies during the day today. This will initiate lee troughing across much of the southern and central High Plains. However, the tightening pressure gradient will be most pronounced across the TX/OK Panhandles and into western Kansas where low-level moisture will be sufficiently high to limit any fire weather concerns. However, deep mixing is expected across Arizona and New Mexico. Mid-level flow around 35 to 40 knots is expected across the Southwest, some of which may be transported to the surface through mixing processes. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are expected from far southeast Arizona into southwestern and western New Mexico. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms are possible across northern Arizona and New Mexico. However, these thunderstorms are expected mainly over higher terrain where fuels are not critically dry. Therefore, have elected not to add a IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Lower Big Blue Natural Resources board intends to meet in May 2023 and discuss the possibility of extending a temporary moratorium on the construction of new wells or increases in irrigated acres. More time is needed to consider management options, review rules and regulations and to assess the geology and aquifer characteristics of the district. The Board of Directors enacted the temporary district-wide moratorium on Dec. 8, 2022, due to concerns about the sustainability of groundwater supplies in the area and the well permitting process allowing for new high-capacity wells in areas of greatest decline amid continuing drought. News Channel Nebraska (Grand Island, Neb.), April 24, 2023

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 23 21:25:02 UTC 2023.