Aggregator

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the
southeastern United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051151 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 79.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning from the South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.0 West. The storm is moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. Resulting in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 30.9, -79.0 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

105
ABPZ20 KNHC 051138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:53:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 09:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:53:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:53:38 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 930 WTNT43 KNHC 050852 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight, with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide more in-situ information about the cyclone later today. The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the convection with the system suggests that there could be some center reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today. Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h. The track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run, somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS (AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids, including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European deterministic AIFS (EAII). The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h. Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina this advisory. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of southeastern United States north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 30.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:49:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:49:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 05:46:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:49:36 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will build across the Southwest and remain in place this upcoming week into next weekend. Relatively zonal mid-level flow will persist over the northern CONUS through the extended forecast period, with multiple embedded impulses expected to track eastward within the zonal flow. As the mid-level impulses traverse the northern Plains, isolated strong to severe storm development will be possible given the presence of ample buoyancy. However, there are appreciable differences in the placement and timing of these impulses among medium-range guidance members. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld since confidence is currently low regarding where and when organized clusters of severe storms will develop. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will build across the Southwest and remain in place this upcoming week into next weekend. Relatively zonal mid-level flow will persist over the northern CONUS through the extended forecast period, with multiple embedded impulses expected to track eastward within the zonal flow. As the mid-level impulses traverse the northern Plains, isolated strong to severe storm development will be possible given the presence of ample buoyancy. However, there are appreciable differences in the placement and timing of these impulses among medium-range guidance members. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld since confidence is currently low regarding where and when organized clusters of severe storms will develop. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will build across the Southwest and remain in place this upcoming week into next weekend. Relatively zonal mid-level flow will persist over the northern CONUS through the extended forecast period, with multiple embedded impulses expected to track eastward within the zonal flow. As the mid-level impulses traverse the northern Plains, isolated strong to severe storm development will be possible given the presence of ample buoyancy. However, there are appreciable differences in the placement and timing of these impulses among medium-range guidance members. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld since confidence is currently low regarding where and when organized clusters of severe storms will develop. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will build across the Southwest and remain in place this upcoming week into next weekend. Relatively zonal mid-level flow will persist over the northern CONUS through the extended forecast period, with multiple embedded impulses expected to track eastward within the zonal flow. As the mid-level impulses traverse the northern Plains, isolated strong to severe storm development will be possible given the presence of ample buoyancy. However, there are appreciable differences in the placement and timing of these impulses among medium-range guidance members. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld since confidence is currently low regarding where and when organized clusters of severe storms will develop. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will build across the Southwest and remain in place this upcoming week into next weekend. Relatively zonal mid-level flow will persist over the northern CONUS through the extended forecast period, with multiple embedded impulses expected to track eastward within the zonal flow. As the mid-level impulses traverse the northern Plains, isolated strong to severe storm development will be possible given the presence of ample buoyancy. However, there are appreciable differences in the placement and timing of these impulses among medium-range guidance members. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld since confidence is currently low regarding where and when organized clusters of severe storms will develop. Read more

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 050848 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) SURF CITY NC 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 15(16) 11(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 20(21) 17(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 25(26) 18(44) 3(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 30(32) 8(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 14(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 78.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 78.6 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn northward and then northeastward by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning this evening or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Three was located near 30.8, -78.6 with movement NNE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 78.6W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 78.6W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 05:46:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 03:21:49 GMT

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible over the northern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow will persevere over the northern CONUS as a mid-level trough meanders along the CA coastline on Monday. Mid-level impulses, embedded in the zonal flow aloft, will traverse the Upper MS Valley and New England during the afternoon, acting as a source of lift amid adequate moisture, instability, and vertical wind shear, to support the potential for strong thunderstorms, a few of which could become severe, especially over the central Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... A weak surface low will develop across the central High Plains and augment northward moisture transport beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates. 60 F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will yield 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Furthermore modest northwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the impulse will overspread the central Plains, resulting in 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Given modestly elongated and curved hodographs, supercells may develop, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat (with a few stones potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter). A tornado is also possible, particularly in central Nebraska, where forecast hodographs show larger, curved low-level hodographs. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS by evening, accompanied by mainly a severe gust threat. Strong storms may develop farther northeast into the Upper MS Valley during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Though buoyancy will be slightly weaker compared to the central Plains, elongated hodographs suggest that a few supercells may produce isolated instances of severe hail. ...Portions of the Northern Appalachians... A mid-level impulse embedded in the 500 mb flow will impinge on the northern Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing enough lift for convective initiation. Near 70F surface dewpoints beneath modest lapse rates will contribute to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in tall/thin thermodynamic profiles. Forecast soundings depict hodographs with some low-level curvature and size, suggesting that some storms may become strong and organized. Multicells and supercells may pose a damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025 Read more