1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts
ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary
hazards.
...Northern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow
will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through
the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will
develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over
SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow
across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will
contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads
south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding
convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few
supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An
eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent
CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of
severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD.
As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the
severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas.
...Central-Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into
the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High
Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively
moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will
support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small
clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into
the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany
the more intense storms.
...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.
...Carolina coast...
The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen
concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the
National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's
forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially
enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture
(mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the
immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible
with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the
overnight.
..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025
Read more1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts
ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary
hazards.
...Northern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow
will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through
the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will
develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over
SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow
across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will
contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads
south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding
convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few
supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An
eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent
CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of
severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD.
As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the
severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas.
...Central-Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into
the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High
Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively
moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will
support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small
clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into
the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany
the more intense storms.
...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.
...Carolina coast...
The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen
concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the
National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's
forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially
enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture
(mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the
immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible
with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the
overnight.
..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025
Read more1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts
ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary
hazards.
...Northern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow
will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through
the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will
develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over
SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow
across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will
contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads
south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding
convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few
supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An
eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent
CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of
severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD.
As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the
severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas.
...Central-Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into
the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High
Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively
moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will
support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small
clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into
the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany
the more intense storms.
...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.
...Carolina coast...
The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen
concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the
National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's
forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially
enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture
(mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the
immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible
with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the
overnight.
..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025
Read more1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts
ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary
hazards.
...Northern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow
will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through
the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will
develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over
SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow
across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will
contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads
south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding
convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few
supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An
eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent
CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of
severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD.
As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the
severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas.
...Central-Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into
the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High
Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively
moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will
support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small
clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into
the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany
the more intense storms.
...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.
...Carolina coast...
The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen
concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the
National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's
forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially
enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture
(mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the
immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible
with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the
overnight.
..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025
Read more1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 051151
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from the South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Chantal.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.0 West. The storm is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion
toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today,
followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of
South Carolina Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before
Chantal reaches the coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later
today.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy
rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas
today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. Resulting in an elevated
risk for flash flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft
SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to
the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
105
ABPZ20 KNHC 051138
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Central East Pacific (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
1 month 2 weeks ago
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 930
WTNT43 KNHC 050852
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025
The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight,
with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on
GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical
cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to
still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the
edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass
received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were
up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm
strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30
kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak
intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is
scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide
more in-situ information about the cyclone later today.
The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess
at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the
short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the
convection with the system suggests that there could be some center
reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today.
Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low
over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the
northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result
in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h. The
track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run,
somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track
forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the
guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS
(AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids,
including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European
deterministic AIFS (EAII).
The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most
unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf
Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance
shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt
currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there
is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more
robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the
depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest
intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland
over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the
upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output
from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little
above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken
and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a
little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by
early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back
offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will
stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h.
Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical
Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina
this advisory.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning.
2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through
Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more
urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas.
3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of southeastern United States north of northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 30.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
