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Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 189 WTNT33 KNHC 061150 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 79.2W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF CONWAY SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 79.2 West. Chantal is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move further inland over South Carolina and then North Carolina through the day today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Chantal moves inland, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. In the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was reported at Coastal Research and Monitoring Program buoy just off Sunset Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area this morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeastern South Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 the center of Chantal was located near 34.0, -79.2 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located inland over northeastern South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

325
ABPZ20 KNHC 061125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Some slow development is still possible during the next
day or two, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before
the system moves west-northwestward over progressively cooler water
by Monday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:48:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 09:22:21 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:48:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 09:22:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:48:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:48:51 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060848 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Before the Air Force Reconnaissance plane departed Chantal this morning, their final leg observed 700 mb flight level winds of 59 kt and a dropsonde estimated pressure down to 1002 mb. Near the same location as those peak flight-level winds, NWS Doppler Radar velocities from Wilmington showed persistent 65-70 kt inbound values at 3-5 thousand feet. These data points were the basis for increasing Chantal's winds to 50 kt at the 06 UTC intermediate advisory. Since that time, the structure of the tropical storm on radar has degraded and the exact center has been difficult to pin down, but appears to have made landfall near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina at approximately 08 UTC. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory given the degradation in appearance now just after landfall and the decreasing Doppler radial velocities. Chantal is estimated to now be moving north-northwestward, at 345/7 kt. A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated by the end of today as the cyclone rounds the westward side of a mid-level ridge located off the U.S. East Coast. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted just a bit eastward, mostly based on the initial position, but falls in line closely to the prior forecast track in 24-36 h. Weakening has already started as Chantal moves inland. Weakening should continue as the full circulation moves inland, with Chantal likely weakening back to a tropical depression later today. The majority of the global and hurricane-regional models then show the circulation opening up into a trough after 36 h, though its likely Chantal's remnant moisture will continue onward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States after this time period. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area through this morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Storm Chantal today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 33.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:43:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 08:43:54 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 205 FONT13 KNHC 060843 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SURF CITY NC 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 239 WTNT33 KNHC 060843 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...CHANTAL NOW MOVING INLAND INTO FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS PUSH ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 79.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case for the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Chantal is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northward and then northeastward is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move further inland into South Carolina and then North Carolina through the day today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is anticipated now that Chantal has made landfall, with the system opening up into a trough in 36-48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. In the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported at Apache Pier, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and should persist through this morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina today and across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible today across portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme northeast South Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CHANTAL NOW MOVING INLAND INTO FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT AS RAINBANDS PUSH ONSHORE... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 the center of Chantal was located near 33.6, -79.1 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.1W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 79.1W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 79.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts. A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday), with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme. Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent, elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have been added to address this scenario. As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook. Read more