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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions of the central and eastern CONUS. ...Carolinas into southern New England... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates). Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and isolated damaging gust potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough, and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear (i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing of the MCS can be better ascertained. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 05:52:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 03:22:23 GMT

MD 1573 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488... FOR BLACK HILLS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Black Hills region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488... Valid 060419Z - 060615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated gusts and marginally severe hail possible for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Long-lived complex of storms that developed over southern MT have spread southeast across the northern Black Hills and appear to be encountering less buoyancy as they spread into the High Plains. Northern plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extends into extreme southern SD, but nocturnal cooling will eventually force cloud bases to become more elevated in nature, especially where temperatures have lowered into the upper 60s/near 70F. Large-scale support ahead of the MT short-wave trough will continue to encourage this activity to propagate southeast; however, severe wind gusts should become increasingly isolated, and hail may struggle to attain severe levels. At this time a new severe thunderstorm watch does not appear warranted. ..Darrow.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR... LAT...LON 44260440 44390275 44840139 43240152 43580439 44260440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across the central Plains tomorrow (Monday). Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as upper troughing persists across the Northeast and West Coast tomorrow (Monday). Surface lee troughs will develop over the central Plains and New England, which will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development over both regions. Across the Plains, strong instability and appreciable vertical wind shear will be in place to support severe thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible over portions of the northern Appalachians. ...Northern Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures should rise into the 70s F amid 70 F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg given the deep, rich low-level moisture in place. Modest westerly flow aloft will overspread the region as a mid-level trough glances the area, supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear/straight hodographs. Some of the strongest storms may become organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains... Surface lee troughing will encourage continued northward low-level moisture advection beneath 8.5+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates through the day, boosting MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. As evening approaches, strengthening of the southerly low-level jet should ensue beneath westerly 500 mb flow, resulting in enlarged, curved hodographs and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. The more robust storms that develop should be initially supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. An instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and/or a tornado may occur. Several storms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface trough from the central High Plains into the northern Plains by evening, with cold pool mergers most likely across western NE. Here, an MCS may develop and produce a more focused swath of severe gusts, hence the Category 3/Enhanced risk. Multicell clusters may also develop as far northeast as MN and southwest as northeast NM, all of which may produce at least isolated severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across the central Plains tomorrow (Monday). Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as upper troughing persists across the Northeast and West Coast tomorrow (Monday). Surface lee troughs will develop over the central Plains and New England, which will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development over both regions. Across the Plains, strong instability and appreciable vertical wind shear will be in place to support severe thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible over portions of the northern Appalachians. ...Northern Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures should rise into the 70s F amid 70 F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg given the deep, rich low-level moisture in place. Modest westerly flow aloft will overspread the region as a mid-level trough glances the area, supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear/straight hodographs. Some of the strongest storms may become organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains... Surface lee troughing will encourage continued northward low-level moisture advection beneath 8.5+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates through the day, boosting MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. As evening approaches, strengthening of the southerly low-level jet should ensue beneath westerly 500 mb flow, resulting in enlarged, curved hodographs and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. The more robust storms that develop should be initially supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. An instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and/or a tornado may occur. Several storms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface trough from the central High Plains into the northern Plains by evening, with cold pool mergers most likely across western NE. Here, an MCS may develop and produce a more focused swath of severe gusts, hence the Category 3/Enhanced risk. Multicell clusters may also develop as far northeast as MN and southwest as northeast NM, all of which may produce at least isolated severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across the central Plains tomorrow (Monday). Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as upper troughing persists across the Northeast and West Coast tomorrow (Monday). Surface lee troughs will develop over the central Plains and New England, which will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development over both regions. Across the Plains, strong instability and appreciable vertical wind shear will be in place to support severe thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible over portions of the northern Appalachians. ...Northern Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures should rise into the 70s F amid 70 F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg given the deep, rich low-level moisture in place. Modest westerly flow aloft will overspread the region as a mid-level trough glances the area, supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear/straight hodographs. Some of the strongest storms may become organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains... Surface lee troughing will encourage continued northward low-level moisture advection beneath 8.5+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates through the day, boosting MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. As evening approaches, strengthening of the southerly low-level jet should ensue beneath westerly 500 mb flow, resulting in enlarged, curved hodographs and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. The more robust storms that develop should be initially supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. An instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and/or a tornado may occur. Several storms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface trough from the central High Plains into the northern Plains by evening, with cold pool mergers most likely across western NE. Here, an MCS may develop and produce a more focused swath of severe gusts, hence the Category 3/Enhanced risk. Multicell clusters may also develop as far northeast as MN and southwest as northeast NM, all of which may produce at least isolated severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across the central Plains tomorrow (Monday). Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as upper troughing persists across the Northeast and West Coast tomorrow (Monday). Surface lee troughs will develop over the central Plains and New England, which will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development over both regions. Across the Plains, strong instability and appreciable vertical wind shear will be in place to support severe thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible over portions of the northern Appalachians. ...Northern Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures should rise into the 70s F amid 70 F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg given the deep, rich low-level moisture in place. Modest westerly flow aloft will overspread the region as a mid-level trough glances the area, supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear/straight hodographs. Some of the strongest storms may become organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains... Surface lee troughing will encourage continued northward low-level moisture advection beneath 8.5+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates through the day, boosting MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. As evening approaches, strengthening of the southerly low-level jet should ensue beneath westerly 500 mb flow, resulting in enlarged, curved hodographs and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. The more robust storms that develop should be initially supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. An instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and/or a tornado may occur. Several storms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface trough from the central High Plains into the northern Plains by evening, with cold pool mergers most likely across western NE. Here, an MCS may develop and produce a more focused swath of severe gusts, hence the Category 3/Enhanced risk. Multicell clusters may also develop as far northeast as MN and southwest as northeast NM, all of which may produce at least isolated severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across the central Plains tomorrow (Monday). Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York into Maine. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as upper troughing persists across the Northeast and West Coast tomorrow (Monday). Surface lee troughs will develop over the central Plains and New England, which will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development over both regions. Across the Plains, strong instability and appreciable vertical wind shear will be in place to support severe thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible over portions of the northern Appalachians. ...Northern Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures should rise into the 70s F amid 70 F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg given the deep, rich low-level moisture in place. Modest westerly flow aloft will overspread the region as a mid-level trough glances the area, supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear/straight hodographs. Some of the strongest storms may become organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts. ...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains... Surface lee troughing will encourage continued northward low-level moisture advection beneath 8.5+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates through the day, boosting MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. As evening approaches, strengthening of the southerly low-level jet should ensue beneath westerly 500 mb flow, resulting in enlarged, curved hodographs and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear. The more robust storms that develop should be initially supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. An instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and/or a tornado may occur. Several storms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface trough from the central High Plains into the northern Plains by evening, with cold pool mergers most likely across western NE. Here, an MCS may develop and produce a more focused swath of severe gusts, hence the Category 3/Enhanced risk. Multicell clusters may also develop as far northeast as MN and southwest as northeast NM, all of which may produce at least isolated severe gusts. ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph). Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and 25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of 30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. ...Maine... Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph). Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and 25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of 30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. ...Maine... Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph). Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and 25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of 30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. ...Maine... Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph). Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and 25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of 30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. ...Maine... Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph). Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and 25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of 30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. ...Maine... Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible. ...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph). Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and 25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts. ...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley... Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of 30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts. ...Maine... Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve. ..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025 Read more

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