Aggregator

MD 0271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle into Northwestern/North-Central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201959Z - 202200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instance of hail and/or damaging gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the northeastern Texas Panhandle into northwest/north-central Oklahoma. A landspout or two is also possible. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over the the northwest TX (over the AMA to BPC vicinity). Leading edge of the cold front, indicated by weak surface troughing, extends east-northeastward from this low into northwest OK and then more eastward into north-central OK. Cumulus has been deepening along this boundary for the past few hours with thunderstorm initiation realized about 30 to 45 mins ago. Despite only modest buoyancy, these storms have steadily deepened, with echo tops now over 30kft. This general trend is expected to persist as convergence persists along the surface trough and the atmosphere continues to destabilize. Overall storm depth and severity will be mitigated by the limited buoyancy, but an isolated updraft or two may briefly by strong enough to produce hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and high storm bases also suggest the potential for damaging gusts as storms collapse. Lastly, given the sharp backing of the wind field near the surface trough, from southerly south of the boundary to northeasterly just north of it, notable surface vorticity is likely present along and just north of the boundary. Consequently, the environment supports the potential for a brief landspout or two. ..Mosier.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35990067 36440009 36639894 36589739 36169732 35699789 35569839 35449879 35289930 35169980 35170037 35490067 35990067 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently, downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely. Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However, confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk areas. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible through this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities based on ongoing convection and trends in short term guidance. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risks across TX and OK remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Isolated large hail will be the main risk, though strong gusts also are possible with storms across the northwest TX into western OK. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. Read more