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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from parts of far southwest Louisiana and the Texas Coastal Plain northwestward into central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as an associated surface low develops and moves northeastward along the Texas coast. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located along the lower to middle Texas Coast. The moist axis will extend northwestward into central and north Texas. Moderate instability appears most likely to develop from the lower to middle Texas coast inland about 50 statute miles. However, weak instability sufficient for strong updrafts should develop across most of the moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, with a cluster of convection moving northeastward from near Corpus Christi to the Houston vicinity during the morning and early afternoon. Additional storms are forecast to develop further northwest along and near the moist axis during the afternoon across parts central and north Texas. A second round of storms may impact the Texas Coastal Plain during the evening. Ahead of the approaching system, deep-layer shear is expected to increase across the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. RAP forecast soundings near Victoria increase 0-6 km shear from 35 knots at 12Z to near 50 knots by 20Z. This increase in deep-layer shear will likely correspond to an increase in the potential for supercells. The thermodynamic environment over the Texas Coastal Plain is forecast to be favorable for large hail, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/Km range, and 500 mb temperatures around -13 to -15C. Supercells that form will have the greatest threat for large hail. The wind-damage threat is more uncertain, and should depend upon the dominant storm mode. In spite of a low-level temperature inversion evident in the forecast soundings, isolated wind damage may occur, especially if a more persistent line segment can become organized. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if a supercell becomes dominant with that threat extending into far southwest Louisiana, where low-level shear will be strong in the afternoon. Further northwest into parts of central and north Texas, weak destabilization is expected by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. An upper-level low will move into northwest Texas, where a cold pocket aloft will create steep mid-level lapse rates. As scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage during the afternoon, hail will be possible within the stronger cores. The threat is expected to be strongly tied with surface heating. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from parts of far southwest Louisiana and the Texas Coastal Plain northwestward into central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as an associated surface low develops and moves northeastward along the Texas coast. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located along the lower to middle Texas Coast. The moist axis will extend northwestward into central and north Texas. Moderate instability appears most likely to develop from the lower to middle Texas coast inland about 50 statute miles. However, weak instability sufficient for strong updrafts should develop across most of the moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, with a cluster of convection moving northeastward from near Corpus Christi to the Houston vicinity during the morning and early afternoon. Additional storms are forecast to develop further northwest along and near the moist axis during the afternoon across parts central and north Texas. A second round of storms may impact the Texas Coastal Plain during the evening. Ahead of the approaching system, deep-layer shear is expected to increase across the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. RAP forecast soundings near Victoria increase 0-6 km shear from 35 knots at 12Z to near 50 knots by 20Z. This increase in deep-layer shear will likely correspond to an increase in the potential for supercells. The thermodynamic environment over the Texas Coastal Plain is forecast to be favorable for large hail, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/Km range, and 500 mb temperatures around -13 to -15C. Supercells that form will have the greatest threat for large hail. The wind-damage threat is more uncertain, and should depend upon the dominant storm mode. In spite of a low-level temperature inversion evident in the forecast soundings, isolated wind damage may occur, especially if a more persistent line segment can become organized. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if a supercell becomes dominant with that threat extending into far southwest Louisiana, where low-level shear will be strong in the afternoon. Further northwest into parts of central and north Texas, weak destabilization is expected by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. An upper-level low will move into northwest Texas, where a cold pocket aloft will create steep mid-level lapse rates. As scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage during the afternoon, hail will be possible within the stronger cores. The threat is expected to be strongly tied with surface heating. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from parts of far southwest Louisiana and the Texas Coastal Plain northwestward into central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as an associated surface low develops and moves northeastward along the Texas coast. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located along the lower to middle Texas Coast. The moist axis will extend northwestward into central and north Texas. Moderate instability appears most likely to develop from the lower to middle Texas coast inland about 50 statute miles. However, weak instability sufficient for strong updrafts should develop across most of the moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, with a cluster of convection moving northeastward from near Corpus Christi to the Houston vicinity during the morning and early afternoon. Additional storms are forecast to develop further northwest along and near the moist axis during the afternoon across parts central and north Texas. A second round of storms may impact the Texas Coastal Plain during the evening. Ahead of the approaching system, deep-layer shear is expected to increase across the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. RAP forecast soundings near Victoria increase 0-6 km shear from 35 knots at 12Z to near 50 knots by 20Z. This increase in deep-layer shear will likely correspond to an increase in the potential for supercells. The thermodynamic environment over the Texas Coastal Plain is forecast to be favorable for large hail, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/Km range, and 500 mb temperatures around -13 to -15C. Supercells that form will have the greatest threat for large hail. The wind-damage threat is more uncertain, and should depend upon the dominant storm mode. In spite of a low-level temperature inversion evident in the forecast soundings, isolated wind damage may occur, especially if a more persistent line segment can become organized. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if a supercell becomes dominant with that threat extending into far southwest Louisiana, where low-level shear will be strong in the afternoon. Further northwest into parts of central and north Texas, weak destabilization is expected by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. An upper-level low will move into northwest Texas, where a cold pocket aloft will create steep mid-level lapse rates. As scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage during the afternoon, hail will be possible within the stronger cores. The threat is expected to be strongly tied with surface heating. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from parts of far southwest Louisiana and the Texas Coastal Plain northwestward into central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as an associated surface low develops and moves northeastward along the Texas coast. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located along the lower to middle Texas Coast. The moist axis will extend northwestward into central and north Texas. Moderate instability appears most likely to develop from the lower to middle Texas coast inland about 50 statute miles. However, weak instability sufficient for strong updrafts should develop across most of the moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, with a cluster of convection moving northeastward from near Corpus Christi to the Houston vicinity during the morning and early afternoon. Additional storms are forecast to develop further northwest along and near the moist axis during the afternoon across parts central and north Texas. A second round of storms may impact the Texas Coastal Plain during the evening. Ahead of the approaching system, deep-layer shear is expected to increase across the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. RAP forecast soundings near Victoria increase 0-6 km shear from 35 knots at 12Z to near 50 knots by 20Z. This increase in deep-layer shear will likely correspond to an increase in the potential for supercells. The thermodynamic environment over the Texas Coastal Plain is forecast to be favorable for large hail, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/Km range, and 500 mb temperatures around -13 to -15C. Supercells that form will have the greatest threat for large hail. The wind-damage threat is more uncertain, and should depend upon the dominant storm mode. In spite of a low-level temperature inversion evident in the forecast soundings, isolated wind damage may occur, especially if a more persistent line segment can become organized. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if a supercell becomes dominant with that threat extending into far southwest Louisiana, where low-level shear will be strong in the afternoon. Further northwest into parts of central and north Texas, weak destabilization is expected by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. An upper-level low will move into northwest Texas, where a cold pocket aloft will create steep mid-level lapse rates. As scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage during the afternoon, hail will be possible within the stronger cores. The threat is expected to be strongly tied with surface heating. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from parts of far southwest Louisiana and the Texas Coastal Plain northwestward into central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as an associated surface low develops and moves northeastward along the Texas coast. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located along the lower to middle Texas Coast. The moist axis will extend northwestward into central and north Texas. Moderate instability appears most likely to develop from the lower to middle Texas coast inland about 50 statute miles. However, weak instability sufficient for strong updrafts should develop across most of the moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, with a cluster of convection moving northeastward from near Corpus Christi to the Houston vicinity during the morning and early afternoon. Additional storms are forecast to develop further northwest along and near the moist axis during the afternoon across parts central and north Texas. A second round of storms may impact the Texas Coastal Plain during the evening. Ahead of the approaching system, deep-layer shear is expected to increase across the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. RAP forecast soundings near Victoria increase 0-6 km shear from 35 knots at 12Z to near 50 knots by 20Z. This increase in deep-layer shear will likely correspond to an increase in the potential for supercells. The thermodynamic environment over the Texas Coastal Plain is forecast to be favorable for large hail, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/Km range, and 500 mb temperatures around -13 to -15C. Supercells that form will have the greatest threat for large hail. The wind-damage threat is more uncertain, and should depend upon the dominant storm mode. In spite of a low-level temperature inversion evident in the forecast soundings, isolated wind damage may occur, especially if a more persistent line segment can become organized. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if a supercell becomes dominant with that threat extending into far southwest Louisiana, where low-level shear will be strong in the afternoon. Further northwest into parts of central and north Texas, weak destabilization is expected by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. An upper-level low will move into northwest Texas, where a cold pocket aloft will create steep mid-level lapse rates. As scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage during the afternoon, hail will be possible within the stronger cores. The threat is expected to be strongly tied with surface heating. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from parts of far southwest Louisiana and the Texas Coastal Plain northwestward into central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as an associated surface low develops and moves northeastward along the Texas coast. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located along the lower to middle Texas Coast. The moist axis will extend northwestward into central and north Texas. Moderate instability appears most likely to develop from the lower to middle Texas coast inland about 50 statute miles. However, weak instability sufficient for strong updrafts should develop across most of the moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, with a cluster of convection moving northeastward from near Corpus Christi to the Houston vicinity during the morning and early afternoon. Additional storms are forecast to develop further northwest along and near the moist axis during the afternoon across parts central and north Texas. A second round of storms may impact the Texas Coastal Plain during the evening. Ahead of the approaching system, deep-layer shear is expected to increase across the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. RAP forecast soundings near Victoria increase 0-6 km shear from 35 knots at 12Z to near 50 knots by 20Z. This increase in deep-layer shear will likely correspond to an increase in the potential for supercells. The thermodynamic environment over the Texas Coastal Plain is forecast to be favorable for large hail, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/Km range, and 500 mb temperatures around -13 to -15C. Supercells that form will have the greatest threat for large hail. The wind-damage threat is more uncertain, and should depend upon the dominant storm mode. In spite of a low-level temperature inversion evident in the forecast soundings, isolated wind damage may occur, especially if a more persistent line segment can become organized. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if a supercell becomes dominant with that threat extending into far southwest Louisiana, where low-level shear will be strong in the afternoon. Further northwest into parts of central and north Texas, weak destabilization is expected by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. An upper-level low will move into northwest Texas, where a cold pocket aloft will create steep mid-level lapse rates. As scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage during the afternoon, hail will be possible within the stronger cores. The threat is expected to be strongly tied with surface heating. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from parts of far southwest Louisiana and the Texas Coastal Plain northwestward into central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as an associated surface low develops and moves northeastward along the Texas coast. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located along the lower to middle Texas Coast. The moist axis will extend northwestward into central and north Texas. Moderate instability appears most likely to develop from the lower to middle Texas coast inland about 50 statute miles. However, weak instability sufficient for strong updrafts should develop across most of the moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, with a cluster of convection moving northeastward from near Corpus Christi to the Houston vicinity during the morning and early afternoon. Additional storms are forecast to develop further northwest along and near the moist axis during the afternoon across parts central and north Texas. A second round of storms may impact the Texas Coastal Plain during the evening. Ahead of the approaching system, deep-layer shear is expected to increase across the Texas Coastal Plain during the day. RAP forecast soundings near Victoria increase 0-6 km shear from 35 knots at 12Z to near 50 knots by 20Z. This increase in deep-layer shear will likely correspond to an increase in the potential for supercells. The thermodynamic environment over the Texas Coastal Plain is forecast to be favorable for large hail, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/Km range, and 500 mb temperatures around -13 to -15C. Supercells that form will have the greatest threat for large hail. The wind-damage threat is more uncertain, and should depend upon the dominant storm mode. In spite of a low-level temperature inversion evident in the forecast soundings, isolated wind damage may occur, especially if a more persistent line segment can become organized. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if a supercell becomes dominant with that threat extending into far southwest Louisiana, where low-level shear will be strong in the afternoon. Further northwest into parts of central and north Texas, weak destabilization is expected by afternoon as surface temperatures warm. An upper-level low will move into northwest Texas, where a cold pocket aloft will create steep mid-level lapse rates. As scattered thunderstorms increase in coverage during the afternoon, hail will be possible within the stronger cores. The threat is expected to be strongly tied with surface heating. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow will pervade the contiguous U.S. during the day today. Associated surface cyclone development in the lee of the Rockies could support Elevated fire-weather conditions this afternoon in southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle. Dry and windy conditions are also possible across West TX, but any elevated conditions are expected to be more localized. ...Southeastern WY and the western NE Panhandle... A surface cyclone is expected to quickly deepen throughout the day today in the lee of the Laramie Mountains in the NE Panhandle and vicinity. The associated strengthening wind field will support dry, downsloping conditions across the region. By peak heating, widespread relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent are possible alongside sustained winds of around 15-25 mph. Current guidance suggests a steadily drying fuelscape -- particularly for 1-10-h fuels -- that would support fire spread in the Elevated area. ...West TX... Modest, westerly flow is forecast in West TX this afternoon in the wake of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough. This will yield strengthening surface wind speeds, likely peaking around 15-20 mph by mid-afternoon. This may contribute to some elevated fire-weather conditions, but the overall threat will be tempered by humidity reductions around 25-30 percent and some recent wetting precipitation moving through the region. ..Flournoy.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The monarch butterfly population in Texas was very low, due to drought in 2023 as the butterflies were flying south to Mexico for the winter. Monarch population numbers from early February 2024 indicated a 59% decrease in butterflies after returning from overwintering in Mexico. KXAS-TV NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth (Texas), March 20, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible late in the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. ...Western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas... The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over the eastern Texas Panhandle, with a quasi-stationary boundary extending eastward from the low into western and central Oklahoma. This boundary will be a focus for convective development this evening. Although a weak cap is in place across the southern Plains, large-scale ascent and low-level convergence may be enough to support new isolated thunderstorm development. RAP forecast soundings near and south of the boundary in the southeast Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma this evening have MUCAPE near 500 J/kg, effective shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This may be sufficient for marginally severe hail this evening. ...Texas Coastal Plain... As an upper-level trough approaches from the west tonight, low-level moisture advection will begin across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the mid 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal Plain by late in the period. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability, mainly from Corpus Christi southward. In response to increasing low-level flow, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to begin around 09Z, with a gradual increase in convective coverage taking place over the last few hours of the period. RAP forecast soundings near Corpus Christi at this time have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and 60 knots of deep-layer shear. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger rotating storms. A few strong gusts could also occur. ..Broyles.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible late in the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. ...Western Oklahoma/Northwest Texas... The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over the eastern Texas Panhandle, with a quasi-stationary boundary extending eastward from the low into western and central Oklahoma. This boundary will be a focus for convective development this evening. Although a weak cap is in place across the southern Plains, large-scale ascent and low-level convergence may be enough to support new isolated thunderstorm development. RAP forecast soundings near and south of the boundary in the southeast Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma this evening have MUCAPE near 500 J/kg, effective shear of 35 to 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This may be sufficient for marginally severe hail this evening. ...Texas Coastal Plain... As an upper-level trough approaches from the west tonight, low-level moisture advection will begin across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the mid 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal Plain by late in the period. This will contribute to the development of moderate instability, mainly from Corpus Christi southward. In response to increasing low-level flow, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to begin around 09Z, with a gradual increase in convective coverage taking place over the last few hours of the period. RAP forecast soundings near Corpus Christi at this time have MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg and 60 knots of deep-layer shear. This, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger rotating storms. A few strong gusts could also occur. ..Broyles.. 03/21/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 20 23:57:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 20 23:57:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Areas affected...portions of the TX Panhandle and southwestern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202151Z - 202345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the TX Panhandle and southwestern OK. Strong winds and small hail are possible with the strongest cores, although these hazards are expected to be relatively localized. A watch appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...A few deeper updrafts are observed to the southwest of CDS in the TX Rolling Plains. They appear to be forced by broad near-surface convergence along a weak moisture gradient, with (relatively) higher dewpoints to the south (currently around 40 F). Mostly sunny conditions throughout the day have yielded well-mixed boundary layers throughout the region, with cloud bases estimated near 3 km AGL. Relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -16 to -18 C at 500 mb per current RAP forecast profiles) yield some mid-level buoyancy that could support continued updraft development. The vertical wind profile is characterized by steadily strengthening westerly flow with height, yielding roughly 30-40 kts of mid-level shear in the estimated cloud-bearing layer. This could support some instances of small hail with any stronger updraft cores. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers would also support some risk of locally stronger winds associated with dry microbursts. The overall threat is expected to be rather localized and marginal, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Flournoy/Edwards.. 03/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 33689995 33190050 32890127 32850190 33430224 34250197 34800140 34980063 34979985 34769949 34199953 33689995 Read more