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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. A robust surface high is forecast to build across the Midwest and into the upper OH River Valley through the day in the wake of a weak cold frontal passage. This will result in seasonal (i.e. cool) temperatures for much of the north-central CONUS, and modulate wind speeds from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, a surface cyclone will likely re-intensify across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a progressive upper wave translates east. This may result in breezy northwesterly gradient winds across portions of western TX/OK, but cool temperatures and potential precipitation over the next 24 hours should limit fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. ...Coastal Southeast... A large -- but weakening -- upper trough is forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains during the day Friday, and then continue eastward across the southeastern quarter of the country into the overnight hours. As this occurs, an attendant surface low is forecast to shift eastward across the Gulf Coast region, along a surface baroclinic zone expected to lift very slowly northward across the northern Gulf, and potentially/eventually inland into coastal areas. A preceding cool/continental airmass inland will be slow to retreat, with elevated/warm-advection precipitation likely to evolve north of the warm front which should further impede inland advance of the boundary. Still, models continue to suggest weak surface-based destabilization will occur across coastal counties, within a narrow window just ahead of the advancing low, mainly through late afternoon and into the overnight hours, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. While elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected well north of the surface front, any severe risk will likely be confined to coastal areas just ahead of the low, near and perhaps just north of the surface warm front. While limited instability should temper severe risk, strong/veering winds with height will provide a favorable kinematic environment for conditional supercell potential. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible across this region, along with risk for locally strong/damaging wind gusts. Risk will shift from west to east with time, reaching the Florida Big Bend area by sunrise Saturday. ..Goss.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 01/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. A cool continental air mass will be reinforced across the Plains and Midwest today as a cold front gradually spreads south. Across the Southeast, a dry offshore flow regime is anticipated, but seasonal temperatures will limit diurnal RH reductions, and the probability of winds exceeding elevated thresholds appears limited. Recent surface observations show a deepening low over portions of eastern AZ/western NM as an upper wave approaches the region. The passage of a Pacific cold front across southern NM/southwest TX this afternoon will likely result in strong westerly winds between 15-25 mph. However, the potential for widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limits confidence in RH values falling to near elevated thresholds over a substantially large area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will impinge on the Southern Plains as another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure and cooler air will overspread the eastern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential, while low-level moisture and marginal buoyancy will return northward across parts of the south-central U.S. Cold air aloft associated with the passing mid-level trough may support isolated lightning flashes across central NM into central TX through the period. However, slightly better chances for thunderstorm development will be associated with the warm-air advection regime over the TX coastline later tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Jan 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream trough will continue eastward from the Southwest Deserts/far northwest Mexico early today toward the southern Plains by tonight. This system will include a strong, cyclonically curved mid-level speed max that will nose into western Texas during the late afternoon and evening, resulting in steepening lapse rates. Sporadic weak thunderstorms are expected today across parts of New Mexico into west/northwest Texas. ...East/Southeast Texas... Air mass modification over the western Gulf of Mexico will lead to steady low-level moistening for coastal areas late tonight into early Friday, with thunderstorm potential increasing. The primary warm sector and evolving surface wave should remain focused just off the Texas coast late tonight, although it is conceivable that a few strong near-surface-based storms/weak supercells could occur just offshore/near the middle Texas coast, with thunderstorms otherwise progressively more elevated and generally weaker inland (northward) across the remainder of east/southeast Texas. Severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted given expectations that a stable surface layer will likely persist over inland areas, but this scenario will be monitored and reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Smith.. 01/04/2024 Read more