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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak MUCAPE develops across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak MUCAPE develops across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak MUCAPE develops across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak MUCAPE develops across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak MUCAPE develops across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of the southern Plains and coastal Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will move southward over the central/southern FL Peninsula on Thursday. But, with limited low-level convergence along this boundary, thunderstorm potential appears generally low. In its wake, a large area of surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern states through the period. A lack of appreciable low-level moisture should hinder thunderstorm develop for a large majority of the CONUS, with two possible exceptions over the southern Plains and coastal TX. A pronounced upper trough/low with attendant strong large-scale ascent will eject over the southern Plains through the day. Even though surface temperatures will remain cool and low-level moisture quite limited, weak instability may still develop with modest daytime heating over parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated, low-topped thunderstorms may occur in this regime as mid-level temperatures rapidly cool with the approach of the upper trough. A separate area of thunderstorms also appears possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning across portions of coastal TX, as greater low-level moisture begins to return northward and weak MUCAPE develops across this area. ..Gleason.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential for today and tonight will primarily be driven by two upper lows as they traverse the northern Gulf Coast and the lower Colorado River Valley regions. Meager buoyancy is expected to modulate the potential for organized convection for most locations, with perhaps the exception of the FL west coast. ...Gulf Coast/FL West Coast.. The first of these waves is noted in water-vapor imagery over central TX with an attendant surface low beginning to deepen off the TX Gulf Coast. Objective analyses and surface observations show a broad baroclinic zone - the remnants of a prior frontal intrusion into the Gulf/FL peninsula - draped to the east/southeast. The surface low is forecast to propagate along this effective warm front across the northern Gulf over the next 24 hours, reaching the FL west coast by early Thursday morning. Robust convection attendant to the low appears probable over the Gulf given strong (45-55 knots at 500 mb) flow aloft and recent radar trends. However, 00 UTC soundings across FL sampled an anomalously dry air mass (PWAT values well below the 10th percentile for early January) as a result of the recent frontal intrusion. While some moistening is expected to occur through the day ahead of the approaching low, establishing a quality warm sector inland prior to the arrival of stronger ascent seems unlikely. This idea is reflected in latest CAM ensemble guidance as convective signatures diminish with landfall, suggesting that the potential for organized convection over land is low. That said, a few forecast soundings hint that adequate low-level theta-e may materialize along the immediate FL west coast (including the Tampa Bay area) to support strong, surface-based convection. Given the aforementioned kinematics, this suggests a conditional threat for an organized cell or two. This potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities, but low-level theta-e trends will be monitored. ...California into AZ/NM... Cooler temperatures aloft and strong ascent associated with the upper low over the eastern Pacific are currently supporting sporadic lightning flashes off and along the northern CA coast. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and broadscale ascent, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level maritime moisture, is expected to support marginal instability in the vicinity of the upper trough as it shifts to the east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Consequently, isolated lightning flashes seem probable along the CA coast, across parts of southern NV, and over AZ/western NM through early Thursday morning. ..Moore.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are expected to move across southeast Texas into southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern California coast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across Texas and northern Mexico tonight. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain, in response to mid-level large-scale ascent and lift associated with a low-level jet. A favorably moist and unstable airmass will remain mostly offshore, eliminating any severe potential over land. Thunderstorms will gradually move eastward tonight across southeast Texas and into southern Louisiana. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern California, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are expected to move across southeast Texas into southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern California coast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across Texas and northern Mexico tonight. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain, in response to mid-level large-scale ascent and lift associated with a low-level jet. A favorably moist and unstable airmass will remain mostly offshore, eliminating any severe potential over land. Thunderstorms will gradually move eastward tonight across southeast Texas and into southern Louisiana. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern California, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are expected to move across southeast Texas into southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern California coast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across Texas and northern Mexico tonight. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain, in response to mid-level large-scale ascent and lift associated with a low-level jet. A favorably moist and unstable airmass will remain mostly offshore, eliminating any severe potential over land. Thunderstorms will gradually move eastward tonight across southeast Texas and into southern Louisiana. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern California, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are expected to move across southeast Texas into southern Louisiana tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening through tonight along the northern California coast. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward across Texas and northern Mexico tonight. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain, in response to mid-level large-scale ascent and lift associated with a low-level jet. A favorably moist and unstable airmass will remain mostly offshore, eliminating any severe potential over land. Thunderstorms will gradually move eastward tonight across southeast Texas and into southern Louisiana. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of northern California, but no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles.. 01/03/2024 Read more

Residents in Savannah were asked by the Savannah Utility Department to conserve water due to extreme drought conditions. The Courier (Savannah, Tenn.), Dec 22, 2023